乔·拜登领先17分唐纳德·特朗普托管来处理冠状病毒在美国广播公司新闻/华盛顿邮报的一项新的民意调查中，这种流行病使民主党在总统选举中获得了两位数的优势选举三周之后。
在他自己的新冠肺炎诊断之后，三分之二的登记选民说特朗普没有采取适当的预防措施来对抗病毒，62%的人不相信他对病毒的说法，在病毒到达美国的八个月之后，只有21%的人说病毒已经得到控制。
同样对特朗普不利的是:58%的人不赞成他处理疫情的方式——自7月以来基本保持稳定——73%的人担心他们或直系亲属可能感染冠状病毒(或者说已经发生了)。对病毒的担忧仍然是拜登支持特朗普的一个重要独立预测因素。
登记选民中拜登-特朗普的总统竞选支持率为53%-41%，潜在选民中的支持率为54%-42%，自由党和绿党候选人的支持率极低(低一位数)。拜登的优势在于他在女性、种族和少数民族、独立人士中的支持，以及在温和派中异乎寻常的广泛领先。
这项由美国广播公司制作的民意调查显示，男性的支持率为48%-48%兰格研究协会尽管拜登在女性中上升了59%-36%，但在1976年的出口民调中，女性在任何总统候选人中的差距都是最大的。(这包括郊区女性的62%-34%和郊区白人女性的54%-41%。)拜登在温和派中69%-25%的巨大领先优势，如果保持下去，将是迄今为止的最高纪录。他在无党派人士中的结果虽然没有统计上的显著领先，但却是自1988年以来民主党在出口民调中的最大领先。
2020年10月10日，星期六，宾夕法尼亚州伊利，民主党总统候选人、前副总统乔·拜登在水管工人地方工会第27培训中心发表讲话。
该调查描述了当前的竞赛;它离我们还不够近选举预测结果的一天。放眼2016年:在特朗普遭到性侵犯指控以及他在“访问好莱坞”录像带上的猥亵言论被披露后，希拉里·克林顿在10月22日，即选举前17天，领先12个百分点。八天后，特朗普的支持率上升了1.8%，因为共和党选民搁置了他们的疑虑，回到了他的行列，克林顿在选举前一周上升了2个百分点。
此外，特朗普有口实:54%的人现在支持他对经济的处理，这是自3月份以来的最高水平(尽管只提高了一个百分点)。与他在大流行上的赤字形成鲜明对比的是，他继续以48%-47%的支持率与受信任管理经济的拜登竞选。
29%的登记选民表示经济是他们投票中最重要的问题，是15%的选民的两倍。尽管自9月24日以来，经济增长了6个百分点，成为首要问题，但特朗普的另一个首要问题犯罪和安全下降了5个百分点，削弱了特朗普的潜在利益。
特朗普还有实质性的热情优势;在可能的选民中，75%的支持者对他非常热情，创下新高，而对拜登的热情高达60%。也就是说，尽管特朗普在这一措施上保持稳定，但拜登的强烈热情较9月底略有上升7个百分点，而在3月份的注册选民中，这一比例仅为28%。
对特朗普的强烈热情远远超过其支持者在2016年此时的水平:47%。就拜登而言，他远远领先于克林顿的强劲热情:43%。
断开
特朗普在大流行应对之外还有脱节。79%的登记选民表示，他们准备接受选举结果，这是一项承诺特朗普拒绝做出让步。56%的人说他没有缴纳应缴纳的税款，如下报告据《纽约时报》报道，他在2017年缴纳了750美元的个人所得税，18年中有11年没有缴纳任何税款。
18%的人表示，他们要么不准备接受选举的合法性，要么这取决于结果——与2016年特朗普像现在一样给票数蒙上阴影的结果相同。尽管如此，这在一定程度上是两党的结果——尽管22%的特朗普支持者此时还没有准备好接受合法的结果，但16%的拜登支持者也是如此。
还有特朗普整体工作表现的问题。在所有美国人中，44%赞成，54%不赞成;在登记选民和可能选民中也差不多。这一结果几乎完全符合选民的偏好，突显出此次选举在多大程度上是对现任总统的公投。
2020年10月10日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)站在白宫阳台上，向聚集在南草坪举行竞选集会的支持者发表讲话，白宫称之为华盛顿的“和平抗议”。
这对特朗普来说是一个重大挑战。自上任以来，他的支持率在23次美国广播公司/邮报民意调查中的22次中一直处于水下;唯一的例外是3月下旬48%-46%的结果，当时流行病正在蔓延，经济情绪即将崩溃。特朗普仍然是自1939年以来现代民调数据中第一位从未获得多数支持率的总统，他作为总统的职业平均支持率为40%，是有记录以来的最低水平。
病毒
这场流行病是特朗普和公众最必然的部分。举个例子，尽管特朗普在戴口罩和社交距离上含糊其辞，但74%的注册选民认为这些措施可以大大降低他们感染病毒的机会。在可能支持拜登的选民中，95%的人这样认为;在支持特朗普的人中，这一比例为46%。
尽管他做出了诊断，59%的人认为特朗普足够健康，可以履行职责。然而，问题是他的表现，人们的担忧显然更多地集中在总统个人身上，而不是整个联邦政府。63%的登记选民非常或多少相信联邦政府能够应对疫情，与3月份的预期大致相同——甚至如前所述，58%的人不赞成特朗普对问题的处理。
表示疫情完全或大部分得到控制的21%的人比8月份的14%有所上升，但与积极的结果相去甚远。这一评估的影响是深远的:在认为疫情完全或大部分得到控制的人中，90%的人支持特朗普连任。在那些认为局势已经得到控制的人中，特朗普和拜登的支持率接近51%-43%。在那些认为局势根本没有得到控制的人中，超过三分之一的可能选民选择了拜登。
组
在本次调查中，拜登在可能的选民中最受支持的群体是民主党人(96%)、自由派人士(93%)、黑人(87%)、拥有研究生学位的人(73%)、温和派人士(69%)和城市居民(65%)。(最后两次美国广播公司/邮报民意调查中的黑人被合并，以获得足够的样本量。(
相反，特朗普的支持者是共和党人(90%)、保守派(84%)、福音派白人新教徒(79%)、农村居民(58%)和高中文凭以下的人(57%)。值得注意的是，特朗普在共和党中输给了拜登9%，而拜登在民主党中输给了特朗普4%，尽管拜登在独立候选人中领先12个百分点才是最大的区别。
同样引人注目的是，男性之间的竞争已经拉平，特朗普在此前的每一次美国广播公司/邮报投票中都领先，但在本周期只有一次;甚至在白人中间，49%-47%，特朗普-拜登。在1976年以来的出口民调中，只有一个民主党人比尔·克林顿在白人中表现出色。
2020年10月10日，星期六，宾夕法尼亚州伊利，民主党总统候选人、前副总统乔·拜登在水管工人地方工会第27培训中心发表讲话。
特朗普在白人男性中略微+11分，拜登在白人女性中不太重要+7分。白人之间更大的差距是基于教育:在拥有四年大学学位的白人中，拜登以2比1，63%-32%的优势领先。在没有学位的人中，结果几乎完全相反，61%-35%，特朗普-拜登。与过去11次总统选举的投票结果相比，受过大学教育的白人的结果是民主党最大的领先优势。
在另一个潜在的关键群体中，白人天主教徒占51%-45%，拜登-特朗普。在过去的44年里，只有两位民主党人在白人天主教徒身上表现良好，他们都是赢家——吉米·卡特(1976年)和克林顿(1996年)。
与2016年相比，拜登在许多群体中的表现超过了克林顿，包括白人、女性、男性、独立人士、温和派、65岁以下选民和白人天主教徒。(在本次调查的注册选民中，48%的人报告在2016年投票给克林顿，44%的人投票给特朗普——非常接近48%-46%的实际投票率。(
非常
最后一个问题是人们如何投票:现在只有40%的可能选民表示他们计划在选举日投票，如果这被证实的话，这是一个历史低点。相反，58%的人说他们会提前投票或者已经投票(6%)。与上个月相比，略多一点的人表示会(或已经)提前亲自投票(21%);另外23%是通过邮件。
这很重要:就像一年来的情况一样，投票偏好有很大的不同。传统选举日选民支持特朗普超过拜登64%-32%。提前投票的人支持拜登的比例更高，为70%-26%。
方法学
这项美国广播公司新闻/华盛顿邮报的民意调查于2020年10月6日至9日以英语和西班牙语通过座机和手机进行，随机抽取了879名注册选民，包括725名可能的选民。结果是抽样误差幅度在登记选民中为3.5分，在可能的选民中为4.0分，包括设计效果。登记选民中的党派分歧为32%-29%-34%，民主党-共和党-无党派，潜在选民中的党派分歧为35%-30%-30%。
这项调查是由纽约兰格研究协会为美国广播公司新闻制作的，抽样和数据收集由马里兰州洛克维尔的Abt协会进行。查看调查方法的详细信息这里。
Powered by trust on the pandemic, Biden leads by 12 points nationwide: POLL
Joe Bidenholds a 17-point lead overDonald Trumpin trust to handle thecoronaviruspandemic in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, powering the Democrat to a double-digit advantage in vote preference with the presidentialelectionthree weeks away.
In the aftermath of his own COVID-19 diagnosis, two-thirds of registered voters say Trump failed to take appropriate precautions against the virus, 62% distrust what he says about it and eight months since its arrival in the United States just 21% say it's under control.
Also damaging to Trump: 58% disapprove of how he's handled the pandemic -- essentially steady since July -- and a new high, 73%, are worried they or an immediate family member might catch the coronavirus (or say it's already happened). Worry about the virus remains a significant independent predictor of support for Biden over Trump.
The presidential race stands at 53%-41%, Biden-Trump, among registered voters, and a similar 54%-42% among likely voters, with minimal support (in the low single digits) for the Libertarian and Green Party candidates. Biden's advantage rests on his support among women, racial and ethnic minorities, independents and an unusually wide lead among moderates.
The race is tied among men, 48%-48% in this poll, produced for ABC byLanger Research Associates, while Biden is up 59%-36% among women, the widest margin among women for any presidential candidate in exit polls dating to 1976. (That includes 62%-34% among suburban women and 54%-41% among suburban white women.) Biden's vast 69%-25% lead among moderates, if it holds, would be a record by far. And his result among independents, while not a statistically significant lead, is the widest for a Democrat in exit polls since 1988.
Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden speaks at the Plumbers Local Union No. 27 training center, Saturday, Oct. 10, 2020, in Erie, Pa.
This poll describes the current contest; it's not remotely close enough toElectionDay to be predictive of the outcome. Look no further than 2016: Hillary Clinton held a 12-point lead on Oct. 22, 17 days before the election, following sexual assault allegations against Trump and disclosure of his lewd comments on the "Access Hollywood" tape. That contracted to Trump up by 1 point eight days later, as GOP voters set aside their doubts and returned to his ranks, and Clinton up by 2 points a week before the election.
Trump, moreover, has ammunition: 54% now approve of his handling of the economy, the most since March (albeit by a single percentage point). In contrast with his deficit on the pandemic, he continues to run essentially even with Biden in trust to handle the economy, 48%-47%.
Nearly twice as many registered voters say the economy is the single most important issue in their vote, 29%, as pick the pandemic, 15%. While that's a 6-point increase for the economy as the top issue from Sept. 24, the potential benefit for Trump is mitigated by a 5-point drop in another of his go-to issues, crime and safety, as the top concern.
Trump also still has a substantial enthusiasm advantage; among likely voters, 75% of his supporters are very enthusiastic about him, a new high, versus 60% strong enthusiasm for Biden. That said, while Trump held steady on this measure, Biden's strong enthusiasm inched up by a slight 7 points from late September, and it's advanced from a mere 28% among registered voters back in March.
Strong enthusiasm for Trump far surpasses its level among his supporters at this point in 2016: 47%. Biden, for his part, runs well ahead of Clinton's strong enthusiasm: 43%.
Disconnects
Trump has disconnects beyond his pandemic response. Seventy-nine percent of registered voters say they're prepared to accept the outcome of the election, a commitmentTrump has refused to make. And 56% say he has not paid his fair share of taxes, followingreportingby The New York Times that he paid $750 in personal income taxes in 2017 and nothing at all in 11 out of 18 years for which it obtained his tax returns.
Eighteen percent say they're either not prepared to accept the election's legitimacy, or it depends on the outcome -- identical to the result in 2016 when Trump, as now, threw shade on the vote count. Still, it's a somewhat bipartisan result -- while 22% of Trump's supporters are unready at this time to accept the outcome as legitimate, so are 16% of Biden's.
And there's the question of Trump's overall job performance. Among all Americans, 44% approve, while 54% disapprove; it's about the same among registered voters and likely voters. This result almost exactly matches vote preferences, underscoring the extent to which the election is a referendum on the incumbent.
President Donald Trump gestures as he stands on a White House balcony speaking to supporters gathered on the South Lawn for a campaign rally that the White House is calling a "peaceful protest" in Washington, Oct. 10, 2020.
That's a major challenge for Trump. His approval rating has been underwater in 22 of 23 ABC/Post polls since he took office; the sole exception was a 48%-46% result in late March, just as the pandemic was taking hold, with economic sentiment about to tank. Trump remains the first president in modern polling data since 1939 never to achieve majority approval, and his career average approval rating as president, 40%, is the lowest on record.
The virus
The pandemic is where Trump and the public most consequentially part company. In one example, while Trump has equivocated on mask wearing and social distancing, 74% of registered voters think these steps can substantially reduce their chance of catching the virus. Among likely voters who support Biden, 95% think so; among those who back Trump, it's 46%.
Despite his diagnosis, 59% think Trump is healthy enough to carry out his duties. The issue, though, is his performance -- and concerns there clearly are focused more on the president personally than on the federal government generally. Sixty-three percent of registered voters are very or somewhat confident that the federal government can handle the outbreak, about the same as expected this to be the case in March – even as 58%, as mentioned, disapprove of Trump's handling of the issue.
The 21% who say the outbreak is completely or mostly under control is up from 14% in August, but many miles from a positive result. Impacts of this assessment are profound: Among people who think the outbreak is completely or mostly under control, 90% support Trump for reelection. Among those who think it's somewhat under control it's a close 51%-43%, Trump-Biden. And among those who think it's not at all under control -- more than a third of likely voters -- 91% pick Biden.
Groups
Biden's best support groups among likely voters in this survey are Democrats (96%), liberals (93%), Black people (87%), those with a post-graduate degree (73%), moderates (69%) and city residents (65%). (Blacks from the last two ABC/Post polls are combined for an adequate sample size.)
Trump's supporters, conversely, are Republicans (90%), conservatives (84%), evangelical white Protestants (79%), rural residents (58%) and those with no more than a high school diploma (57%). Notable here is that Trump loses 9% of Republicans to Biden, while Biden loses 4% of Democrats to Trump -- although it's that 12-point Biden lead among independents that makes the big difference.
It stands out, as well, that the race has evened up among men, a group in which Trump has led in every previous ABC/Post poll save one this cycle; and is even among whites, 49%-47%, Trump-Biden. In exit polls since 1976, only one Democrat, Bill Clinton, has done that well among whites.
Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden speaks at the Plumbers Local Union No. 27 training center, Saturday, Oct. 10, 2020, in Erie, Pa.
Trump is a slight +11 points among white men, Biden, a non-significant +7 among white women. The far bigger gap among whites is on the basis of education: Among whites who have a four-year college degree, Biden leads by 2-to-1, 63%-32%. Among those without a degree, the result is almost exactly reversed, 61%-35%, Trump-Biden. The result among college-educated whites is another case of the largest Democratic lead compared with exit poll results in the last 11 presidential elections.
In another potentially key group, white Catholics divide 51%-45%, Biden-Trump. Only two previous Democrats have done as well with white Catholics in the last 44 years, both winners -- Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Clinton in 1996.
Compared just with 2016, Biden outpaces Clinton's performance among many groups, including whites, women, men, independents, moderates, voters younger than 65 and white Catholics alike. (Among registered voters in this survey, 48% report having voted for Clinton in 2016, 44% for Trump -- very near the 48%-46% actual vote.)
And how
A last question is how people vote: Just 40% of likely voters now say they plan to vote on Election Day, a historical low if it's borne out. Fifty-eight percent instead say they'll vote early or already have voted (6%). Compared with last month, slightly more say they'll vote (or have voted) early in person (21%); and another 23% by mail.
It matters: As has been the case all year, there's a vast difference in vote preferences. Traditional Election Day voters support Trump over Biden by 64%-32%. Those who vote early support Biden by an even wider margin, 70%-26%.
Methodology
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 6 to 9, 2020, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 879 registered voters, including 725 likely voters. Results havemargins of sampling errorof 3.5 points among registered voters and 4.0 points among likely voters, including design effects. Partisan divisions are 32%-29%-34%, Democrats-Republicans-independents, among registered voters and 35%-30%-30% among likely voters.
The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, with sampling and data collection by Abt Associates of Rockville, Maryland. See details on the survey's methodologyhere.
