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亚利桑那州的独立选民将该州推入了战场

2020-10-12 10:15   美国新闻网   - 

亚利桑那州长期以来被认为是特立独行的选民状况-在该州400多万登记选民中,130万登记为独立选民。

不管是哪一方,亚利桑那州人都为自己倾向于凭良心投票也不总是按照党派路线。

即使在候选人进行艰难的竞选活动或竞选连任时,也是如此向独立选民推销是反复出现的。在有争议的2018年参议院竞选中,民主党人基尔斯顿·西内马(Kyrsten Sinema)像关注民主党人或温和派选民一样,关注为独立选民争取选票。她是自1995年以来第一个被亚利桑那州人派到参议院的民主党人。

正如被任命的共和党参议员玛莎·麦克萨利(Martha McSally)在竞选期间一直受雇于参议院一样,候选人经常被迫围绕他们的独立记录传递信息。

PHOTO: Senator Martha McSally, a Republican from Arizona, wears a protective mask as she leaves the Senate Floor at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., Sept. 9, 2020.

2020年9月9日,亚利桑那州共和党参议员玛莎·麦克萨利(Martha McSally)在华盛顿特区美国国会大厦离开参议院时戴着防护面具。

亚利桑那州的独立选民人数正在飙升,就像全国各地一样。亚利桑那州立大学莫里森研究所的一项研究发现,在1992年,亚利桑那州只有11.6%的选民是无党派的。如今,这一比例约为33%。

美国广播公司的“本周”在大峡谷州呆了几天,与选民谈论总统大选选举选民和独立选民在相应的战场上的感受。

终身共和党人琳达(Linda)和汤姆·罗尔斯(Tom Rawles)现在晚上都在车道边挂着乔·拜登(Joe Biden)的标志,向准备在大选中投票给民主党的路人挥手。

他们不像唐纳德·特朗普总统在2016年竞选时那样是他的粉丝,所以他们投了加里·约翰逊的票。

但让他们处于边缘而足以离开该党的是总统对2018年弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔暴力和右翼抗议的回应。

“所以我们差不多已经在那里了,但夏洛茨维尔肯定是我说‘够了’的时候,”汤姆在亚利桑那州悠然镇的家外面告诉美国广播公司新闻,那里是马里科帕县的一部分,也是凤凰城的所在地。

琳达补充说:“现在在共和党,如果你不是唐纳德·特朗普的崇拜者,你不受欢迎,他们会告诉你的。”。

终身共和党人,直到2016年,这对夫妇投票给拜登。

“在共和党,如果你不是唐纳德·特朗普崇拜的粉丝,你就不受欢迎,”琳达说。

“当然,夏洛茨维尔是我说够了的时候,”汤姆说。@Alex_Presha来自亚利桑那州的报道。pic.twitter.com/9UbYhhW4Ri

—本周(@ThisWeekABC)2020年10月11日

亚利桑那州立大学公共事务教授托姆·雷利博士说,独立投票集团正在将该州从它曾经的政治光谱中的红宝石家园推向深紫色的领土。

“我们看到的是普遍的沮丧,华盛顿和整个美国正在发生的分裂,人们正在寻找一种不同的方式,”他说。

对于拉美裔选民来说尤其如此,他们在该州人口和投票群体中的比例越来越大。

皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)的数据显示,2019年,马里科帕县是全国第四大拉美裔或拉美裔人口增长地。那些认同西班牙裔或拉丁裔的人占该县人口的近30%,整个州西班牙裔的平均年龄低于人口超过100万西班牙裔居民的许多州。

皮尤还报告称,这场流行病引发的经济衰退对拉丁美洲人和西班牙人的打击尤其严重:西班牙人的失业率从2月份的4.8%上升到4月份的18.5%,6月份又回落到14.5%。

特朗普在2016年仅以3分之差险胜该县,两年后,当西内马与麦克萨利竞争时,她以51分的优势赢得了该县,麦克萨利以46.8分落后。

PHOTO: President Donald Trump gestures as he stands on a White House balcony speaking to supporters gathered on the South Lawn for a campaign rally that the White House is calling a

2020年10月10日,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)站在白宫阳台上,向聚集在南草坪举行竞选集会的支持者发表讲话,白宫称之为华盛顿的“和平抗议”。

随着入主白宫的竞争日益两极化,一些拉丁裔选民没有自己的主要政党,尤其是当候选人就移民政策争吵不休时,这往往是首要问题。

卡利林·范·奥斯滕年轻时从多米尼加共和国移民到美国。虽然她过去投过民主党的票,但她希望该党知道不要把拉丁裔选民视为理所当然。

“他们只是想当然地认为,‘哦,嘿,好吧,他们是拉丁裔,他们会继续前进,倾向民主党。’事实并非如此,”她说。

范·奥斯滕补充说:“许多民主党人一直忽视真正解决移民问题。”。“这就是为什么我们看到许多拉丁裔选民真的只是去——他们真的是可以争取的,他们很难决定走哪条路,因为没有人在解决对他们最重要的问题。”

但是,尽管亚利桑那州可能出现左倾,一些独立选民正在重新评估他们对总统缺乏支持的情况,比如巴比·鲁昂,他也在2016年投票给约翰逊。

“既然冠状病毒已经出来了,我们的经济保持相当稳定。她说:“这让我感到惊讶,尤其是考虑到很多人因为无法进入而失业。”(特朗普)允许各州自己做决定,这是应该的。"

离选举日还有不到一个月的时间,数百万张选票已经通过该州长期建立并经常使用的邮寄投票系统寄出,在大选投票中把选民拉向一个主要政党的最后努力比以往任何时候都更加重要。

民意调查一贯显示民主党和共和党之间的总统竞选势均力敌。最后美国广播公司新闻/华盛顿邮报民意调查在亚利桑那州,拜登的支持率为49%,特朗普为47%。但在独立选民中,这些数字讲述了一个不同的故事。《纽约时报》和锡耶纳大学的一项民意调查发现,拜登在无党派人士中上升了25个百分点。
 

Independent voters in Arizona pushed the state into battleground territory

Arizona has long been considered thestate of maverick voters-- of the state's over 4 million registered voters, 1.3 million of them are registered as independents.

Regardless of party, Arizonans take pride in their tendency tovote with their conscienceand not always along party lines.

Even amongst candidates as they run tough campaigns or re-election bids, thepitch to independent votersis a recurring one. In the contentious 2018 Senate race, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema focused just as much on getting out the vote for independents as she did on Democrats or moderate voters. She was the first Democrat to be sent to the Senate by Arizonans since 1995.

As appointed Republican Sen. Martha McSally has employed throughout her campaign to stay in the Senate, candidates are often forced to center messaging around their independent records.

The population of independent voters is skyrocketing in Arizona, much like across the nation. A study by the Morrison Institute at Arizona State University found that in 1992 just 11.6% of Arizona's electorate were unaffiliated. Today it sits at around 33%.

ABC's "This Week" spent a few days in the Grand Canyon State, talking with voters about the presidentialelection, the electorate and how independents feel in the consequential battleground.

Life-long Republicans Linda and Tom Rawles now spend their evenings at the edge of their driveway with a Joe Biden sign, waving to passersby as they prepare to vote Democrat in the general election.

They weren't fans of President Donald Trump's as he was on the campaign trail in 2016, so they cast their ballots for Gary Johnson.

But what set them over the edge enough to leave the party was the president's response to the violence and right-wing protests in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2018.

"So we were sort of already there, but certainly Charlottesville, is the time when I said, 'enough,'" Tom told ABC News outside of his home in Carefree, Arizona, a part of Maricopa County, which is also home to Phoenix.

"Right now in the Republican Party if you're not a fan in the cult of Donald Trump, you're not welcome and they will tell you that," Linda added.

Lifelong Republicans until 2016, this couple is voting for Biden.

“In the Republican Party if you’re not a fan in the cult of Donald Trump, you’re not welcome,” Linda says.

“Certainly Charlottesville is the time when I said enough,” Tom says.@Alex_Preshareports from Arizona.pic.twitter.com/9UbYhhW4Ri

— This Week (@ThisWeekABC)October 11, 2020

Arizona State University public affairs professor Dr. Thom Reilly said the independent voting bloc is pushing the state out of it's once-ruby red home on the political spectrum -- and right into deep purple territory.

"What we're seeing is is general frustration, to the divisiveness that is occurring in Washington and across the United States, and people are searching for a different way," he said.

That is especially true for Latino voters who are increasingly becoming a larger percentage of the state's population and voting bloc.

In 2019, according to Pew Research Center, Maricopa County was home to the fourth-largest growing Hispanic or Latino population in the entire country. Those who identify as Hispanic or Latino make up nearly 30% of the county's population, and the median age of Hispanics in the entire state is lower than it is in many states where the population supersedes 1 million Hispanic residents.

Pew also reports that the economic downturn stemming from the pandemic has hit Latinos and Hispanics especially hard: The unemployment rate for Hispanics increased from 4.8% in February to 18.5% in April and dropped back to 14.5% in June.

Trump narrowly won the county in 2016 by only three points and two years later when Sinema was running against McSally, she carried the county with 51 points, with McSally trailing behind at 46.8.

President Donald Trump gestures as he stands on a White House balcony speaking to supporters gathered on the South Lawn for a campaign rally that the White House is calling a "peaceful protest" in Washington, Oct. 10, 2020.

As the race to the White House continues down an increasingly polarized path, some Latino voters are without a major party to call their own, especially as the candidates squabble over immigration policies, which are oftentimes top of mind issues.

Karilyn Van Oosten immigrated to the United States from the Dominican Republic as a young adult. While she has cast Democratic ballots in the past, she wants the party to know not to take Latino voters for granted.

"They're just taking it for granted and thinking, 'Oh, hey, well, they're Latinos, and they're going to go ahead and lean Democrat.' That's not the case," she said.

"A lot of the Democratic Party has been neglecting to really address that issue of immigration," Van Oosten added. "And that's why we see that a lot of the Latino voters are really just going -- they're really up for grabs and they are having a hard time making a decision of which way to go, because no one is addressing the issues that matter to them most."

But despite what may appear as a shift to the left in Arizona, some independent voters are re-evaluating their lack of support for the president, like Barbi Rouen, who also voted for Johnson in 2016.

"Sincecoronavirushas come out, our economy has stayed fairly stable. And that to me is astonishing especially considering the number of people who are out of jobs because they can't go in," she said. "(Trump)'s allowing the states to make the decisions for themselves, which is what it should be."

With less than a month until Election Day, and millions of ballots already in the mail using the state's long-established and often-utilized mail-in ballot system, the final push to pull voters toward one major party on the general election ballot is more important than ever.

Polling consistently shows a close presidential race among Democrats and Republicans. The lastABC News / Washington Post pollout of Arizona saw Biden at 49% and Trump at 47%. But among Independent voters, the numbers tell a different story. A New York Times / Siena College poll found Biden up 25 points among Independents.

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