西方制裁对俄罗斯经济造成了严重打击。卢布正在贬值，外国企业正在逃离，价格也即将大幅上涨。熟悉的产品可能会从商店消失，像国外度假这样的中产阶级成就受到质疑。

除了短期痛苦之外，俄罗斯经济很可能会经历更严重的停滞，这种停滞早在入侵乌克兰之前就已经开始了。

但几位经济学家表示，不太可能出现全面崩溃。英国皇家联合服务研究所(Royal United Services Institute)的俄罗斯经济专家理查德·康诺利(Richard Connolly)表示，尽管受到了惩罚性的金融制裁，但俄罗斯已经建立了“一个面向冲突的经济”。

俄罗斯政府对经济的广泛参与以及它仍然从石油和天然气出口中赚钱——尽管美国和英国禁止出口——将有助于减轻这个国家许多工人、养老金领取者和政府雇员的打击，这个国家在过去30年里经历了三次严重的金融危机。正如经济学家指出的那样，伊朗这个规模小得多、多元化程度也低得多的经济体，多年来一直忍受着因其核计划而遭受制裁的痛苦，却没有完全崩溃。

尽管如此，俄罗斯货币已经大幅下跌，这将推高进口商品的价格，而通货膨胀率已经高达9%。在入侵的前一天，2月23日，80卢布兑换1美元。截至周四，这一数字为119——尽管俄罗斯央行采取了严厉措施来阻止暴跌，包括将利率提高一倍至20%。

Marina Albee是圣彼得堡市中心咖啡馆Botanika素食餐厅的老板，她已经从她的水果和蔬菜供应商那里听说价格将上涨10%到50%。其他供应商也说不上来多少。

咖啡馆从日本进口干海藻和熏豆腐，从智利进口迷你芦笋，从贝宁进口西兰花，从印度进口巴斯马蒂大米和椰子油。

“我们正在等待海啸来袭——海啸是我们购买的所有东西的价格上涨，”阿尔比说。“我们需要密切关注形势，如果有必要，就把这些菜从菜单上去掉。”

“我们可以重新设计菜单，做出更多基于俄罗斯的菜肴，”她说。"你必须动作敏捷。"由于新冠肺炎疫情，在没有游客的情况下生存了两年之后，“这让我们很烦恼，”阿尔比补充道。

尽管制裁冻结了俄罗斯很大一部分外汇储备，但国家财政状况良好，债务水平较低。当政府确实需要借款时，它的债权人大多是国内银行，而不是在危机中可能抛弃它的外国投资者。政府本周宣布支持对经济至关重要的大公司。

对俄罗斯经济增长的短期影响的估计差异很大，因为可能会有更多的制裁，而且弗拉基米尔·普京总统的战争的后果不确定。

“俄罗斯人会穷得多——他们没有钱去土耳其度假，也没有钱送孩子去西方上学——即便如此，因为普京，他们也不会受到欢迎，”蓝湾资产管理公司(BlueBay Asset Management)新兴市场主权分析师蒂姆·阿什(Tim Ash)表示。

他认为经济增长会下降10%，而其他经济学家认为会下降2%左右。

经济增长的长期前景并不好——因为战前就存在的持久原因:少数受青睐的内部人士控制着大公司和部门，导致缺乏竞争和新投资。俄罗斯未能摆脱其占主导地位的油气行业，实现多元化。2020年的人均收入与2014年大致相当。

自苏联解体以来的30年间积累的外国投资及其带来的就业机会正在消失。像大众、宜家和苹果这样的大公司已经闲置工厂或停止销售，而能源巨头BP、埃克森和壳牌已经表示，他们将停止购买俄罗斯的石油和天然气或退出在那里的合作伙伴关系。

周三，评级机构惠誉将该国的信用评级进一步下调至垃圾级，并警告称主权债务即将违约。

央行已经介入，以提振卢布和银行系统，限制提取外币，并让股市关闭近两周。政府还宣布了限制外国投资者逃离的措施。尽管这些限制支撑着金融体系免于彻底崩溃，但它们也切断了经济与贸易和投资的联系，而贸易和投资可能会推动经济增长。

自从因2014年吞并克里米亚半岛而面临制裁以来，克里姆林宫一直预计，此类措施将成为西方在任何冲突中的主要武器。作为回应，它设计了英国皇家联合军种研究所(Royal United Services Institute)副研究员、一本关于俄罗斯对制裁的反应的书的作者康诺利(Connolly)所称的“卡拉什尼科夫经济”(Kalashnikov economy)，指的是俄罗斯军用步枪。

他说，这是“一个持久的，在某种程度上是原始的体系”，其基础是低债务，政府控制大部分银行系统，以及一个能够干预和支撑货币和银行的中央银行。

虽然贸易将下降，商品将减少，但卢布贬值意味着俄罗斯政府将从出售的石油中赚取更多的货币，因为石油是以美元定价的。随着最近价格的上涨，康诺利估计，与2019年相比，俄罗斯从石油中获得的金额是2.7倍，可以支付工资和养老金。

虽然美国和英国官员表示，他们将禁止从俄罗斯进口数量相对较少的石油，但更加依赖俄罗斯能源的欧洲却没有这么做。

康诺利说，就目前情况来看，“这里面有很多漏洞，俄罗斯人将利用这一点，发展一种继续下去的方式”。

“我并不是说他们会玩得很开心。我是说他们有资源来处理这些问题，”他说。

普京政府在国内政治中的长期影响很难预测。咨询公司Altura Partners的管理合伙人、前世界银行官员西蒙·科莫森(Simon Commander)表示,“日益繁荣的经济推动了对现政权的广泛支持...似乎高不可攀。”

“这可能不会转化为公开的纠纷，更不用说反抗了，但它几乎不会增强对独裁者的支持，”他说。

Russia built an economy like a fortress but the pain is real

Western sanctions are dealing a severe blow to Russia's economy. The ruble is plunging, foreign businesses are fleeing and sharply higher prices are in the offing. Familiar products may disappear from stores, and middle-class achievements like foreign vacations are in doubt.

Beyond the short-term pain, Russia's economy will likely see a deepening of the stagnation that started to set in long before the invasion of Ukraine.

But a total collapse is unlikely, several economists say. Despite the punishing financial sanctions, Russia has built “an economy that’s geared for conflict," said Richard Connolly, an expert on the Russian economy at the Royal United Services Institute in Britain.

The Russian government’s extensive involvement in the economy and the money it is still making from oil and gas exports — even with bans from the U.S. and Britain — will help soften the blow for many workers, pensioners and government employees in a country that has endured three serious financial crises in the past three decades. And as economists point out, Iran, a much smaller and less diversified economy, has endured sanctions misery for years over its nuclear program without a complete breakdown.

Still, the Russian currency has fallen spectacularly, which will drive up prices for imported goods when inflation was already running hot at 9%. It took 80 rubles to get one U.S. dollar on Feb. 23, the day before the invasion. By Thursday, it was 119 — even after Russia's central bank took drastic measures to stop the plunge, including doubling interest rates to 20%.

Marina Albee, owner of the Cafe Botanika vegetarian restaurant in St. Petersburg's historic city center, has already heard from her fruit and vegetable supplier that prices will be going up 10% to 50%. Other suppliers can't say how much.

The cafe imports dried seaweed and smoked tofu from Japan, mini asparagus from Chile, broccoli from Benin, basmati rice and coconut oil from India.

“We're waiting for the tsunami to hit — the tsunami being the price increases for everything we purchase,” Albee said. "We need to keep our eye on the situation and, if we need to, take those dishes out of the menu."

“We can reengineer our menu to make more Russian-based dishes," she said. “You have to be quick on your feet.” After surviving two years without tourists because of the COVID-19 pandemic, “it takes a lot to faze us,” Albee added.

Although sanctions have frozen a large portion of Russia’s foreign currency reserves, state finances are in good shape with low debt. When the government does need to borrow, its creditors are mostly domestic banks, not foreign investors who could abandon it in a crisis. The government announced support this week for large companies deemed crucial to the economy.

Estimates of the short-term impact on Russia's economic growth vary widely because more sanctions could come and the fallout from President Vladimir Putin's war are uncertain.

“Russians will be a lot poorer — they won’t have cash to holiday in Turkey or send their kids to school in the West — and even then, because of Putin, they will not be welcome,” said Tim Ash, senior emerging market sovereign analyst at BlueBay Asset Management.

He sees economic growth dropping 10%, while other economists see a drop of as little as 2% or something in between.

Long-term prospects for a growing economy are not good — for enduring reasons that predate the war: A few favored insiders control major companies and sectors, resulting in a lack of competition and new investment. Russia has failed to diversify away from its dominant oil and gas sector. Per capita income in 2020 was roughly what it was in 2014.

Foreign investment built up over the 30 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the jobs it brought are heading for the door. Big corporations like Volkswagen, Ikea and Apple have idled plants or halted sales, while energy giants BP, Exxon and Shell have said they will stop buying Russian oil and gas or exit partnerships there.

On Wednesday, ratings agency Fitch cut its credit rating for the country further into junk status and warned of an imminent default on sovereign debt.

The central bank has stepped in to bolster the ruble and the banking system, restrict withdrawals in foreign currency and keep the stock market closed for nearly two weeks. The government also has announced measures to restrict foreign investors from fleeing. While such restrictions shore up the financial system against utter collapse, they also close off the economy to trade and investment that could fuel growth.

Since facing sanctions over its 2014 seizure of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula, the Kremlin has anticipated such measures would be the West's primary weapon in any conflict. In response, it has devised what Connolly, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and author of a book on Russia’s response to sanctions, calls “the Kalashnikov economy,” a reference to the Russian military rifle.

It's “a durable, in some ways primitive system," he said, based on low debt, government control of most of the banking system and a central bank able to intervene and prop up the currency and banks.

While trade will fall and fewer goods will be available, the weaker ruble means the Russian government will earn more of its currency for the oil it sells because oil is priced in dollars. With recently higher prices, Connolly estimates Russia is getting 2.7 times the amount of rubles from oil compared with 2019, money that can cover salaries and pensions.

While U.S. and British officials said they will ban the relatively small amount of oil they import from Russia, Europe, which is much more dependent on Russian energy, has held back.

As it stands, “there's a lot of holes in this, and the Russians will exploit this and develop a way of carrying on," Connolly said.

“I’m not saying they’re going to have a wonderful time. I’m saying they have the resources to deal with these problems,” he said.

The long-term impact for Putin's government in domestic politics is hard to predict. Simon Commander, managing partner at Altura Partners advisory firm and a former World Bank official, says “buoyant popularity for the regime fueled by increased prosperity ... seems unattainable.”

“That may not translate into open dissension, let alone revolt, but it will hardly bolster support for the autocrat,” he said.