周三,五角大楼连续第二天拒绝了波兰通过美国向乌克兰提供苏联时代战机的计划,称该提议有可能导致俄罗斯和北约之间爆发更大规模的战争。
波兰周二的声明震惊了美国官员,也让乌克兰对总统弗拉基米尔·泽伦斯基(Volodymyr Zelenskyy)要求增加战斗机的呼吁得到回应的希望达到了顶点。
但波兰的提议基本上将责任推给了美国,要求美国控制德国一个美国空军基地的米格-29战斗机,然后将其提供给乌克兰——五角大楼断然拒绝了这一想法,认为“站不住脚”。
白宫周三为达成协议敞开大门,称美国、其北约盟友和乌克兰正在讨论“后勤和运营”细节,几个小时后,又有一个惊喜:五角大楼完全拒绝了这一想法。
五角大楼发言人约翰·柯比周三表示:“我们不支持此时向乌克兰空军移交更多战斗机,因此也不希望看到它们被我们扣押。”
这两个北约盟国的反复引发了困惑和愤怒。波兰最初反对转让,而美国支持转让,直到波兰突然提出通过美国转让,美国现在反对转让。
“这不是乒乓球。这关系到人们的生活。我们再问一遍——快做决定。不要推卸责任。泽伦斯基在周三的一次讲话中说。
众议院议长南希·佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)讲述了她与泽伦斯基(Zelenskyy)就美国提供致命援助进行的45分钟通话,她说,“他想要飞机,飞机,飞机。”
俄罗斯警告任何国家不要允许乌克兰使用其机场为军用飞机提供支持,克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫周三表示,“这是极其不可取和潜在危险的情况。”
根据Kirby的说法,美国情报部门也得出了同样的结论,他补充说,向乌克兰增派战斗机不是基辅现在在对抗入侵的俄罗斯军队和他们的压倒性轰炸时所需要的。
“有更适合支持乌克兰军队对抗俄罗斯的替代方案。我们将继续寻求这些选择,”柯比周三告诉记者。
他补充说,乌克兰空军已经拥有“几个完全具备执行任务能力的飞机中队”,美国计划继续提供“他们击败俄罗斯侵略最需要的系统——特别是反装甲和防空系统。”
美国向乌克兰提供了“毒刺”导弹,这是一种肩扛式防空导弹,前任政府认为这种导弹过于升级,无法提供。英国周三宣布将提供其类似的名为Starstreak的系统。
但目前,美国正在与战斗机划清界限,美国官员说,向乌克兰运送战斗机在后勤上很难避免俄罗斯的报复。
柯比说:“情报界评估认为,向乌克兰转让米格-29可能会被误认为是升级,可能会导致俄罗斯做出重大反应,这可能会增加与北约军事升级的前景。”。
然而,就在几天前,美国国务卿安东尼·布林肯说,美国已经向波兰开了“绿灯”,让波兰直接向乌克兰提供飞机,尽管他说这是波兰的选择。
波兰官员反对这一想法,担心的正是柯比提出的情景——俄罗斯袭击波兰机场。波兰总理办公室甚至在周日的推特上称该国将提供战机的报道为“假NEWS‼️”。
但两天后,波兰表示将“立即免费”向美国提供20多架米格-29战斗机,将它们送往拉姆施泰因空军基地,“供美利坚合众国政府使用”,这让美国感到震惊
“这实际上是波兰人的一个令人惊讶的举动,”负责政治事务的副国务卿维多利亚·纽兰几小时后告诉参议院,并补充说,“事先没有与我们协商。”
惊讶变成了反对,五角大楼称该计划“不可行”,因为它将给美国军人带来风险。
美国国防部长劳埃德·奥斯汀(Lloyd Austin)周三打电话给波兰国防部长马里斯·巴斯扎克(Mariusz baszczak),对他表示感谢,但柯比表示坚决反对。
据一名美国官员称,西方国家大幅增加了对乌克兰的军事援助,仅在最近几周就提供了数千枚反坦克导弹。
但是,随着禁飞区的设立,战机现在似乎走得太远了。美国和北约官员一再警告说,他们的部队不会以任何方式卷入冲突,担心俄罗斯的攻击可能会迅速升级为核武器国家之间的战争。
呼吁在乌克兰西部设立“有限的”禁飞区——允许难民离开和援助进入,或者在人道主义走廊上空——也落空了。
吉姆·沃森/通过法新社的游泳池/盖蒂图片社
国务卿安东尼·布林肯与英国外交大臣举行联合记者招待会..
“在我们的情况下,在乌克兰领土或土地上让美国服务人员或美国飞行员进入乌克兰领空,无论是全面还是有限,几乎肯定会导致美国、北约和俄罗斯之间的直接冲突,而这将扩大冲突。这会延长它。这将使它比现在更加致命,”布林肯周三说。
对一些分析人士来说,禁飞区在这里也不是什么灵丹妙药,因为克里姆林宫使用远程火炮,甚至不分青红皂白的炮击,来摧毁乌克兰军队和平民目标。据一名美国高级国防官员称,俄罗斯现已向乌克兰发射了710多枚导弹,其中约一半是从俄罗斯境内发射的。
“帮助保护天空的最佳方式是通过防空武器,英国现在将向乌克兰提供这种武器,”英国外交大臣利兹·特拉斯(Liz Truss)在国务院与布林肯一同表示。
虽然拜登政府一再表示,它正在与盟友和合作伙伴就提供哪些其他军事援助进行磋商,但目前还不清楚还会有哪些援助。据官员称,拜登上月底批准的3.5亿美元一揽子计划中,约有75%已经到达乌克兰手中。
但是除了单个导弹,美国可能会考虑像爱国者系统这样的反导弹电池。纽兰拒绝公开谈论这一选择,但周二告诉参议院一个小组,乌克兰的“清单上还有“其他事情,我们认为我们可以做,我会就此打住。”
Pentagon again rejects Poland's plan to make US provide Ukraine fighter jets
The Pentagon on Wednesday, for the second day in a row, rejected a plan by Poland to provide Ukraine with its Soviet-era warplanes through U.S. hands, saying the proposal would risk wider war between Russia and NATO.
Poland's announcement Tuesday, which shocked U.S. officials, peaked hope in Ukraine that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's calls for more fighter jets would be answered.
But Poland's proposal essentially punted the responsibility to the U.S. by calling for America to take control of the MiG-29 fighter jets at a U.S. air base in Germany and then provide them to Ukraine -- an idea the Pentagon roundly rejected as "not tenable."
Hours after the White House left the door open to a deal Wednesday, saying "logistical and operational" details were being discussed among the U.S., its NATO allies, and Ukraine, there was another surprise: The Pentagon roundly rejected the idea altogether.
"We do not support the transfer of additional fighter aircraft to the Ukrainian Air Force at this time and, therefore, have no desire to see them in our custody either," Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby said Wednesday.
The back-and-forth by both NATO allies has sparked confusion and exasperation. Poland originally opposed a transfer while the U.S. backed it -- until Poland suddenly proposed doing so through the U.S., which now opposes it.
"This is not pingpong. This is about people's lives. We ask again -- make the decision faster. Don't throw the responsibility. Send us the jets," Zelenskyy said in a speech Wednesday.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, recounting what she said was a 45-minute call with Zelenskyy about the U.S. providing lethal aid, said, "He wants the planes, the planes, the planes."
Russia has warned any country from allowing Ukraine to use its airfields to support military aircraft, with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov saying Wednesday, "This is an extremely undesirable and potentially dangerous scenario."
U.S. intelligence has concluded the same thing, according to Kirby, who added that sending Ukraine additional fighter jets is not what Kyiv needs now in its fight against invading Russian forces and their overwhelming bombardment.
"There are alternative options that are much better suited to support the Ukrainian military in their fight against Russia. We will continue to pursue those options," Kirby told reporters Wednesday.
Ukraine's air force already has "several squadrons of fully mission capable aircraft," he added, and the U.S. instead plans to continue providing "the systems that they need most to defeat Russian aggression -- in particular, anti-armor and air defense."
The U.S. has provided Ukraine with Stinger missiles -- shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles that previous administrations had viewed as too escalatory to provide. The United Kingdom announced Wednesday it would provide its similar system known as Starstreak.
But for now, the U.S. is drawing the line against fighter jets, which U.S. officials say would be logistically difficult to deliver to Ukraine without risking Russian retaliation.
"The intelligence community has assessed the transfer of MiG-29s to Ukraine may be mistaken as escalatory and could result in significant Russian reaction that might increase the prospects of the military escalation with NATO," Kirby said.
Just days ago, however, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. had given "a green light" to Poland to provide the planes directly to Ukraine, although he said it was Poland's choice.
Polish officials opposed the idea, fearing exactly the scenario Kirby laid out -- with Russian strikes on Polish airfields. The Polish prime minister's office even called reports the country would provide warplanes "FAKE NEWS‼️" in a tweet Sunday.
But two days later, Poland stunned the U.S. by saying it would provide over two dozen MiG-29 fighter jets to the U.S. "immediately and free of charge," sending them to Ramstein Air Base and "at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America."
"That actually was a surprise move by the Poles," Victoria Nuland, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, told the Senate hours later, adding, "It wasn't pre-consulted with us."
Surprise turned to opposition, with the Pentagon calling the plan "not tenable" for the risk it would pose to U.S. service members.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called Polish Minister of National Defense Mariusz Błaszczak Wednesday, thanking him, but expressing outright opposition, per Kirby.
Western countries have significantly escalated their military aid to Ukraine, providing thousands of anti-tank missiles in recent weeks alone, according to a U.S. official.
But warplanes now seem to be a step too far, along with a no-fly zone. U.S. and NATO officials have repeatedly warned their forces will not get involved in the conflict in any way, fearing a Russian attack that could quickly spiral into war between nuclear-armed states.
Calls for a "limited" no-fly zone -- over western Ukraine to allow for refugees to exit and aid to enter, or over humanitarian corridors -- have fallen flat, too.
"Introducing, in our case, American service members in Ukraine, on Ukrainian territory or soil, or American pilots into Ukrainian airspace, whether on a full or on a limited basis, would almost certainly lead to direct conflict between the United States, between NATO and Russia, and that would expand the conflict. It would prolong it. It would make it much more deadlier than it already is," Blinken said Wednesday.
To some analysts, a no-fly zone would not be a silver bullet here either, with the Kremlin using long-range artillery, even indiscriminate shelling, to grind Ukrainian forces and civilian targets down. Russia has now launched more than 710 missiles against Ukraine -- about half of which have been launched from within Russian territory, according to a senior U.S. defense official.
"The best way to help protect the skies is through anti-air weaponry, which the U.K. is now going to be supplying to Ukraine," British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said alongside Blinken at the State Department.
While the Biden administration has said repeatedly it's consulting with allies and partners on what other military aid to provide, it's unclear what else it could be. Some 75 percent of a $350 million package approved by Biden late last month has already made it into Ukrainian hands, according to officials.
But beyond individual missiles, the U.S. may be considering anti-missile batteries like the Patriot system. Nuland declined to speak publicly about that option, but told a Senate panel Tuesday there are "other things" on Ukraine's "list that we think we can do, and I'll leave it at that."