如果不是俄罗斯可能入侵乌克兰,美国F-15战斗机周三抵达爱沙尼亚,加入北约正在波罗的海上空执行的空中警务任务,通常不会引起太多关注。
虽然F-15在爱沙尼亚为期一周的部署,以加入比利时战斗机的工作已经进行了一段时间,但周四四架丹麦F-16战斗机抵达立陶宛执行类似任务,是丹麦最近的一项决定,与乌克兰日益紧张的局势有关。
尽管规模不大,但丹麦向波罗的海部署额外的飞机和船只向俄罗斯发出了一个信息,即北约国家愿意在危机期间向北约伙伴展示其军事能力和承诺。
这些部署还突显了北约在东欧和波罗的海国家的现有存在,这是由俄罗斯2014年入侵克里米亚引发的,以及无论部署规模有多大,人们如何从乌克兰危机的角度看待任何军事行动。
由于乌克兰不是北约成员,如果俄罗斯入侵,该联盟对乌克兰没有安全承诺,但它致力于确保北约邻国的安全。
周三,北约秘书长延斯·斯托尔滕贝格表示,尽管外交努力继续试图化解与俄罗斯的危机,“我们也做好了最坏的准备。”
斯托尔滕贝格还表示,五角大楼本周宣布,美国8500名士兵已经进入高度戒备状态,这“表明了北约联盟的实力。”
周一,五角大楼宣布,大多数部队已被列入缩短的“准备部署命令”,以防4万人的北约反应部队在短时间内被激活以应对危机所需。
EPN/新闻
美国空军的F-15战斗机降落在爱沙尼亚的阿马里空军基地,以加强.
同一天,斯托尔滕贝格详细描述了丹麦和其他北约国家向东欧和波罗的海国家运送少量船只、飞机和军队的情况。
具有讽刺意味的是,正是俄罗斯在2014年接管克里米亚,促使北约和美国最初将更强大的军事力量轮换到东欧和波罗的海国家。
这包括爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛和波兰。近年来,北约在这四个国家部署了由4000名多国部队组成的四个战斗群,其中包括美国军队。
另外俄罗斯吞并克里米亚导致美国在东欧高调建立部队轮换,目前有5000名美军在波兰进行训练。
美国和北约都非常公开地向俄罗斯发出任何新的或潜在的军事征召或部署信息,表明该联盟仍然强大,有能力迅速增援请求援助的成员国。
这种信息可以包括披露通常不公开的军事计划和程序。
五角大楼高级发言人周二承认,公开宣布8500名美军处于高度戒备和较短的“准备部署命令”状态,对美军来说并不是惯例。
约翰·柯比告诉记者:“我们谈论它的次数不像我们一直在谈论的那样多,这并不典型。
柯比还指出,处于戒备状态的8500名士兵还没有接到部署命令,如果北约反应部队启动,已经驻扎在欧洲的数千名美国士兵更有可能最初为其提供资源。
关于军事准备的公开信息与拜登总统和美国盟友向俄罗斯发出的非常公开的警告是一致的,即俄罗斯入侵乌克兰将对俄罗斯产生严重的经济后果。
“尽管“战略模糊”是我们国际外交中必不可少的一部分,但在这种情况下,俄罗斯需要美国和北约发出强烈而统一的信息,”前国防部副助理、美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)国家安全撰稿人米克·马尔罗伊(Mick Mulroy)表示。
他说:“五角大楼也非常乐于参与其所有活动。"这可能是为了避免对他们行为的任何误解。"
马尔罗伊认为,俄罗斯也应该这样做,特别是在乌克兰边境部署10多万地面部队。
他说:“如果没有持续的沟通,这种情况可能会导致一场冲突,每个参与的国家,甚至那些没有参与的国家,都会受到负面影响。
US, NATO using military moves to send message to Russia over Ukraine
Wednesday's arrival of American F-15 fighters in Estonia to join an ongoing NATO air policing mission over the Baltics would normally not garner much attention were it not for the rising tensions of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.
While the F-15's weeklong deployment to Estonia to join fighter jets from Belgium had been in the works for a while, Thursday's arrival in Lithuania of four Danish F-16 fighters for a similar mission was a more recent decision by Denmark tied to the rising tensions over Ukraine.
Though small in scope, Denmark's deployment of the additional aircraft and a ship to the Baltic Sea sends a message to Russia about the willingness by NATO countries to demonstrate their military capabilities and commitment to NATO partners during a crisis.
The deployments also highlight NATO's existing presence in eastern Europe and the Baltics, prompted by Russia's 2014 invasion of Crimea, and how any military movements are being viewed through the prism of the crisis with Ukraine, no matter the size of the deployment.
Since Ukraine is not a member of NATO, the alliance has no security commitment to Ukraine should Russia invade, but it is intent on assuring the security of neighboring NATO countries.
On Wednesday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that while diplomatic efforts continue to try to defuse the crisis with Russia "we are also prepared for the worst."
Stoltenberg also said this week's announcement by the Pentagon that 8,500 troops in the United States had been placed on heightened alert demonstrated "demonstrates the strength of the NATO alliance."
On Monday, the Pentagon announced that most of the troops had been placed on shortened "prepare to deploy orders" in case they were needed for the 40,000 man NATO Response Force was activated on short notice to respond to a crisis.
That same day Stoltenberg had detailed the movement of small numbers of ships, airplanes, and troops by Denmark and other NATO countries to eastern Europe and the Baltics.
Ironically, it was Russia's 2014 takeover of Crimea that prompted NATO and the U.S. to initially rotate more robust military forces into eastern Europe and the Baltics.
That includes Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland where in recent years NATO has positioned four battlegroups consisting of 4,000 multinational troops, including American forces.
Separately Russia's annexation of Crimea led the United States to establish high-profile troop rotations in eastern Europe, currently there are 5,000 American forces carrying out training Poland.
Both the U.S. and NATO have been very public with any new or potential military call-ups or deployments to message to Russia that the alliance remains strong and has the capability of quickly reinforcing member nations that request assistance.
That messaging can include disclosing military planning and procedures that are not normally made public.
The Pentagon's top spokesman acknowledged on Tuesday that publicly announcing that 8,500 American military on heightened alert and on shorter "prepare to deploy orders" was not customary for the U.S. military.
"It's not typical that we talk about it as much as we've been talking about it," John Kirby told reporters.
Kirby also noted that the 8,500 troops on alert have not received orders to deploy and that the thousands of American troops already stationed in Europe were more likely to initially resource the NATO Response Force should it be activated.
The public messaging about military readiness is in line with the very public warnings to Russia by President Biden and American allies that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would have severe economic consequences for Russia.
"Although "strategic ambiguity" is an essential part of our international diplomacy, in this case, Russia needed to have a strong and unified message from the U.S. and NATO," said Mick Mulroy a former deputy assistant of defense and an ABC News national security contributor.
"The Pentagon has also been very forthcoming on all its activities," he said. "This is likely in an attempt to avoid any misinterpretation of their actions."
Mulroy that Russia should do the same particularly with more than 100,000 ground troops on Ukraine's borders.
"Without constant communication, this situation could lead to a conflict in which every nation involved, and even those that are not, is negatively impacted," he said.