德克萨斯州第六国会选区的拥挤竞选已经进行了将近三个月，两个共和党人苏珊·赖特和州众议员杰克·埃尔泽伊进行了决选竞赛主题保持不变:前总统威尔唐纳德·特朗普的影响转化为胜利在竞选活动中?
今年4月，特朗普支持苏珊·赖特，她是已故国会议员罗恩·赖特的遗孀，因癌症于今年2月去世新冠肺炎(新型冠状病毒肺炎)癌症并发症——在特餐之前选举甚至发生了。在周二竞选之前，特朗普在一份声明中公开重申了他对赖特的支持，称她“支持美国第一的政策”，这为她赢得了他的“完全和完全的支持。”
这位前总统还录制了一个在网上流传的机器人电话，将赖特吹捧为“一位伟大的共和党人(和)一位伟大的女性”，她将在国会继承她丈夫的政治保守遗产。尽管赖特继承了她已故丈夫的国会记录在竞选政治史上并不是一个不寻常的现象，但考虑到埃尔泽伊的筹款能力，这位寡妇出身的国会候选人还不能保证会彻底获胜。
尽管没有特朗普的支持，但埃尔泽伊已经筹集到了赖特的两倍多。截至7月7日，这位州议员筹集了120多万美元，相比之下，赖特筹集了45.4万美元，这可能有助于他在周二的竞选前精简竞选团队的选民动员工作。
在这场比赛中，埃尔泽伊还得到了几位备受瞩目的德克萨斯州共和党人的支持，包括前州长里克·佩里他还在特朗普政府中担任能源部长，以及代表与休斯顿接壤的地区的众议员丹·克伦肖。两人在竞选过程中为埃尔泽辩护，此前他通过邮件和广告遭到了保守派反税收组织“增长俱乐部”数周的攻击。
“没有什么比我在邮箱里看到的谈论他的垃圾更让我恼火了。如果你想那么糟糕地赢得选举，我不想让你成为我的国会议员，”佩里在7月中旬为埃尔泽伊举行的竞选集会上说。
在那次集会后，增长俱乐部主席大卫·麦金托什发表了一份声明，他称赞赖特是一个“有原则的保守派”，同时称埃尔泽伊是“一个连续的机会主义者，有丢失选票的记录，并支持提高税收。”
但政治上的反复可能会让位于选民的参与，因为历史上，特别选举吸引的选民要比中期或大选周期少得多。
专门研究德州政治的南方卫理公会大学政治学教授卡尔·吉尔森(Cal Jillson)说:“根据人们早期的判断，尤其是特朗普的支持，苏珊·赖特可能仍然是最受欢迎的人，但我认为不可预测的是，埃尔泽伊可能是一个比苏珊·赖特更好的竞选者，在一场投票率非常低的竞选中——这是意料之中的——很难说(谁会赢)。”
吉尔森预测，在预计炎热的一天，独立选民和民主党选民不太可能有足够多的人投票反对特朗普支持的候选人。然而，有多少选民计划参加非周期决选的不确定性笼罩着这场竞争。
“你不知道会有多少人出来。你不知道他们会是谁，(或者)他们会在哪里——该地区的北部偏向赖特，该地区的南部偏向埃尔泽，”他周一在接受美国广播公司新闻采访时说。
无论谁胜出，周二选举的结果标志着国会共和党人固有的胜利，并将进一步缩小民主党在众议院的多数席位。竞选中缺少一名反对党成员，这使得共和党人能够在未来的竞争中集中支出。
“我期待着欢迎一位新的共和党同事来到国会，”全国共和党国会委员会主席汤姆·埃默在莱特和埃尔泽伊的决选推进后于5月表示。
Trump's endorsement looms over Texas special runoff election
Nearly three months after the crowded race in Texas' 6th Congressional District advanced into a runoff between two Republicans -- Susan Wright and state Rep. Jake Ellzey -- the majortheme of the contestremains the same: will former PresidentDonald Trump's influencetranslate into victoryon the campaign trail?
In April, Trump endorsed Susan Wright -- the widow of the late Congressman Ron Wright who died in February after suffering fromCOVID-19and complications from cancer -- before the specialelectioneven took place. In the leadup to Tuesday's contest, Trump publicly reiterated his support for Wright in a statement, saying she "supports America First policies" which earned her his "Complete and Total Endorsement."
The former president also recorded a robo-call that was circulated online that touted Wright as "a great Republican (and) a great woman" who would carry on her husband's politically conservative legacy in Congress. Although Wright's inheritance of her late husband's congressional track record is not an unusual phenomenon in the history of campaign politics, the widow-turned-congressional-hopeful is not yet guaranteed to win outright given Ellzey's fundraising prowess.
Despite not having Trump's endorsement, Ellzey has been able to raise more than double that of Wright. As of July 7, the state congressman raised more than $1.2 million compared to Wright's $454,000, which could have helped him streamline his campaign's voter mobilization efforts ahead of Tuesday's contest.
Going into the matchup, Ellzey also has the backing of several high-profile Texas Republicans -- including former Gov.Rick Perry, who also served as energy secretary in the Trump administration, and Rep. Dan Crenshaw who represents the district bordering Houston. The pair defended Ellzey on the campaign trail after he faced weeks of attacks from the conservative, anti-tax group, the Club for Growth, through mailers and advertisements.
"Nothing irritates me more than the junk that I have seen in the mailboxes talking about him. If you want to win an election that bad, I don't want you to be my congressman," Perry said at a campaign rally for Ellzey in mid-July.
Following that rally, Club for Growth President David McIntosh issued a statement in which he praised Wright as a "principled conservative" while calling Ellzey a "serial opportunist with a record of missing votes and supporting higher taxes."
But the political back-and-forth could take a backseat to voter engagement given that special elections historically draw far fewer voters to the polls than midterm or general election cycles.
"Susan Wright is still probably the favorite based on the early judgments people made and the Trump endorsement in particular, but I think what makes it unpredictable is that Ellzey is probably a better campaigner than Susan Wright is, and in a very low turnout race -- which this is expected to be -- it's very hard to tell (who will win)," said Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University who specializes in Texas politics.
Jillson predicts it will be unlikely that Independent and Democratic voters turn out in large enough numbers on what is expected to be a scorching hot day to cast their ballots in opposition to the Trump-backed candidate. Still, the uncertainty of how many voters plan to participate in an off-cycle runoff election looms over the contest.
"You don't know how many people are going to turn out. You don't know who they're going to be, (or) where they're going to be -- the northern part of the district leans toward Wright, the southern part of the district leans toward Ellzey," he said in an interview with ABC News Monday.
Regardless of who comes out on top, the outcome of Tuesday's election signals an inherent victory for congressional Republicans and will further narrow Democrats' majority in the House. The lack of an opposing party member in the running allows Republicans to focus their spending in more competitive contests in the future.
"I look forward to welcoming a new Republican colleague to Congress," National Republican Congressional Committee Chair Tom Emmer said in May following Wright and Ellzey's runoff advancements.
