上周，美国国债收益率曲线反转的消息(这意味着政府出售的短期债券现在比长期债券支付更多并且通常被认为是一个令人担忧的经济迹象)让投资者们争先恐后地为即将到来的衰退做准备。自1955年以来，每次衰退之前收益率曲线都会反转。
在过去一周，唐纳德·特朗普总统将繁荣的经济作为其连任竞选的核心部分，他指责了一些外部力量，他声称这些外部力量正在密谋蓄意伤害经济:即美联储、民主党和媒体。
特朗普周一发推称:“尽管杰伊·鲍威尔(Jay Powell)和美联储(Fed)严重缺乏远见，但我们的经济非常强劲。”他提到了他的团队审查和提名的美联储主席。总统继续说，“民主党正在试图‘将’经济变坏，以达到2020年选举的目的”。非常自私！”他没有给出任何证据来证明“民主党人”是如何或为什么“愿意”一个糟糕的经济，但为什么要费心。
总统随后建议美联储降低利率“至少100个基点”，这与他之前的反驳相矛盾。降低利率是一项典型的抵御经济收缩的措施。人们担心，如果美联储现在使用这些工具，一旦情况开始恶化，他们将没有任何工具可以使用。
同样不清楚的是，如果总统认为对衰退的担忧被夸大了，他为什么要采取这些行动。更令人困惑的是，总统首席经济顾问拉里·库德洛(Larry Kudlow)计划明天与商界领袖举行一次关于经济的会议，这表明人们对经济下滑存在真诚的担忧。
白宫经济顾问拉里·库德洛回答了白宫外记者的提问。
当天早些时候，白宫还暗示记者们过于关注衰退的可能性。
“经济的基本面非常强劲，”白宫顾问凯莱恩·康威告诉记者，“很高兴看到媒体最终报道特朗普的经济。”她随后声称，记者们“似乎只有在你能使用当今芝麻街的词汇:衰退时才会报道它。”
就连副总统迈克·彭斯也参与了周一的行动。“尽管主流媒体发表了许多不负责任的言论，但美国经济依然强劲，美国经济前景也依然强劲，”他在底特律经济俱乐部的一次活动中表示。
美国商业经济协会的民意调查发现，大约十分之四的经济学家预计明年会出现衰退，尽管大约48%的人预计到2021年才会出现衰退。
FACED WITH RECESSION, TRUMP TURNS TO A FAMILIAR FRIEND: CONSPIRACY
Last week, the news that the treasury yield curve had inverted (meaning short term bonds sold by the government now pay out more than long-term bonds, and is generally seen as a worrying economic sign) sent investors scrambling and preparing for imminent recession. The inversion of the yield curve has preceded every recession since 1955.
Over the last week, President Donald Trump, who has made the thriving economy a central part of his reelection campaign, has pointed fingers at a number of outside forces which he claims are conspiring to purposely hurt the economy: namely the Federal Reserve, Democrats and the media.
"Our Economy is very strong, despite the horrendous lack of vision by Jay Powell and the Fed," Trump tweeted Monday, referencing the Fed chief his team vetted and nominated. The president continued, saying that "the Democrats are trying to 'will' the Economy to be bad for purposes of the 2020 Election. Very Selfish!" He did not give any evidence about how or why "the Democrats" were "willing" a bad economy, but why bother.
The president then suggested that the Fed reduce rates "by at least 100 basis points" which contradicts his earlier rebuttal. Reducing rates is a measure typically reserved for fending off economic contraction. There is a fear that if the Fed uses these tools now, they won't have any tools to use once things do begin to decline.
It's also unclear why the president wants to take these actions if he believes fears of a recession are overblown. Further confusing matters, the president's chief economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, has scheduled a meeting about the economy with business leaders tomorrow, indicating that there are sincere fears of a downturn.
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow fields questions from reporters outside of the White House.
Earlier in the day, the White House also suggested that reporters were focusing too much on the possibility of recession.
"The fundamentals of the economy are very strong," White House counselor Kellyanne Conway told reporters, adding that "it's nice to see the media finally cover the Trump economy." She then claimed that journalists only "seem to cover it only when you can use the Sesame Street word of the day: Recession."
Even Vice President Mike Pence got in on the action Monday. "Despite the irresponsible rhetoric of many in the mainstream media, the American economy is strong and the U.S. economic outlook remains strong as well," he said at a Detroit Economic Club event.
The National Association for Business Economics poll found that about four in 10 economists expect a recession next year, though about 48 percent don't expect a downturn until 2021.
