前副总统乔·拜登的民调支持率飙升，他可能要感谢唐纳德·特朗普总统。

　　上周，2020年总统候选人说“穷孩子”和“白人孩子”一样聪明和有才华；声称他在担任副总统期间会见了在佛罗里达州帕克兰枪击事件中幸存的学生(枪击事件发生在他离职一年后)；混淆了俄亥俄州代顿和得克萨斯州埃尔帕索的大规模枪击事件的地点；把英国前首相玛格丽特·撒切尔和特蕾莎·梅搞混了，还把爱荷华州博览会上他的政治演说中反复出现的几行文字搞砸了。

　　这些失误导致特朗普总统(他也混淆了本月大规模枪击事件的地点)评论说，拜登“不是在玩全套游戏”总统是在离开白宫去汉普顿参加筹款活动和在新泽西高尔夫俱乐部度周末时发表这番言论的。“这不是一个你可以作为总统的人，”总统继续说道。“我看辩论。我是说，乔·拜登不会回答一个简单的问题。他有点不对劲。”

　　但是本周，拜登遥遥领先在早期的初选投票中在爱荷华州、新罕布什尔州、内华达州和南卡罗莱纳州，约有35%的民主党选票。这比获得18%选票的下一位候选人佛蒙特州参议员伯尼·桑德斯领先整整17个百分点。

　　与此同时，像参议员卡马拉·哈里斯和伊丽莎白·沃伦这样的女性领先者在早期各州表现不佳。两位候选人的支持率都比全国低三分。

　　美国大学公共事务学院(American University School of Public Affairs)驻校行政人员、俄亥俄州参议院前议员卡普里·卡法罗(Capri)表示，在这一点上，拜登正在崛起，因为人们认为他有资格当选，他们希望有人能够击败特朗普。“他的知名度最高，他得益于他在民主党[的长期存在，”她说。“有人认为拜登是‘最有可能当选的’，尤其是在中西部或锈带州。”

　　卡法罗解释说，长期政治观察家知道拜登容易犯“失态”，而且可能已经把这一点纳入他们的投票决定。其他选民不太关心外表，而是希望候选人的政策有助于增强他们的经济地位。

　　“特朗普总统就是最好的例子，”卡法罗说。“人们不喜欢他的推特和讲话方式，因为他们支持他的政策。他被任命为保守派议员，在经济问题上承诺很多。”她说，总统已经改变了交战规则，尽管有一些失误，拜登还是很有吸引力。“特朗普总统改变了选民在政治和竞选活动中愿意接受的东西，他也改变了标准，”她说。

　　与此同时，拜登的团队声称拜登的失态是他吸引力的一部分。

　　“乔·拜登一生都在表达自己的想法，选民们都知道并喜欢他，”拜登的宣传主任兼竞选副经理凯特·贝丁菲尔德告诉记者纽约时报。“他是一个真实的人，他是真实的，这永远不会改变。”
 

JOE BIDEN IS LEADING IN THE POLLS, AND HE HAS DONALD TRUMP TO THANK

　　Former vice president Joe Biden is surging in polls, and he may have President Donald Trump to thank for it.

　　Last week the 2020 presidential candidate said that "poor kids" were as smart and talented as "white kids;" claimed he met with students who survived the shooting in Parkland, Florida, while he was vice president (the shooting occurred a year after he left office); mixed up the locations of the Dayton, Ohio, and El Paso, Texas, mass shootings; confused former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher with Theresa May and messed up a few oft-repeated lines in his stump speech during the Iowa State Fair.

　　The flubs caused President Trump, who also mixed up the locations of this month's mass shootings, to comment that Biden "is not playing with a full deck." The president made the remarks while leaving the White House to attend a fundraiser in the Hamptons and a weekend at his New Jersey golf club. "This is not somebody you can have as your president," the president continued. "I watch the debates. I mean, well, Joe Biden can't answer a simple question. Something is going wrong with him."

　　But this week, Biden surged ahead in early primary state polling, with about 35 percent of the Democratic vote in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. That's a full 17 points ahead of the next candidate, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who has 18 percent of the vote.

　　Female frontrunners, meanwhile, like Senators Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren underperformed in early states. Both candidates polled three points below where they did nationally.

　　At this point, Biden is surging because people think he's electable and they want someone who is able to beat Trump, said Capri Cafaro, executive in residence at American University School of Public Affairs and a former member of the Ohio Senate. "He has the most name recognition and he's benefiting from his long standing presence in [the] Democratic party," she said. "There's an assumption of perception that Biden is the 'most electable,' especially in Midwestern or Rust Belt states."

　　Long-term political observers know that Biden is prone to making "gaffes" and may have already baked that into their voting decision, explained Cafaro. Other voters don't care quite as much about outward appearance, and instead want a candidate whose policy will help strengthen their economic standing.

　　"President Trump is the perfect example of that," said Cafaro. "People dismiss the way he tweets and speaks because they favor his policies. He's appointed conservatives to the bench and promises a lot when it comes to the economy." The president, she said, has shifted the rules of engagement, making Biden appealing despite some missteps. "President Trump has changed what the electorate is willing to accept when it comes to politics and campaigning, he's changed the standards," she said.

　　Biden's team, meanwhile, claimed that Biden's gaffes were part of his appeal.

　　"Joe Biden has spoken his mind his entire life, which voters know and love about him," Kate Bedingfield, Biden's communications director and deputy campaign manager, told The New York Times. "He's a real person, he's authentic and that will never change."