“三周前，一切都非常乐观。”
就像佛蒙特州参议员在2月初获得爱荷华州，新罕布什尔州和内华达州三连冠的胜利之后，戴维·罗宾（David Robin）像伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）的大多数支持者一样，将民主党初选中。
然后，前副总统乔·拜登（Joe Biden）在南卡罗来纳州（South Carolina）取得了重大胜利，从而击败了竞争对手，领先竞争对手40个百分点。那场胜利使他度过了3月3日的超级星期二，在那里他赢得了14个州中的10个州的比赛。
甚至在那之后，罗宾仍然充满希望。罗宾自2011年占领华尔街以来一直是桑德斯的支持者，并于2020年成为纽约市的联合创始人。毕竟，参议员的代表人数比2016年要多。四年前，在超级星期二之后，他的议员人数减少了约200名。进入今晚的初选，他落后不到100位代表参加了拜登。
但是现在，在拜登迅速在密西西比州，密歇根州和密苏里州取得了三项决定性的胜利之后，人们称其为“迷你超级星期二”或“超级星期二2”，这种情绪已经改变。
罗宾说：“这不是我会寻找或希望得到的结果，”他承认这不是一个“伟大的信号”，而是“我们需要继续战斗”。
那么到底发生了什么？参议员的支持者有几个不同的想法。参议员的支持者聚集在纽约布鲁克林的一家酒吧，观看六个初选的结果在周二晚上直播。
他们中的许多人都指出了退出竞选的中度候选人浪潮。Pete Buttigieg，Amy Klobuchar，Tom Steyer和Mike Bloomberg在本月初的四天之内都退出了比赛。其中三个候选人-Buttigieg，Klobuchar和Bloomberg-立即认可了前副总统。亿万富翁彭博社（Bloomberg）有望在未来几个月内将无限的资源投入拜登。
“你在比赛中有那么多温和派，一旦他们全部退学，他们就决定让拜登提高自己的速度，那就是他们要跟的人，” 28岁的桑德斯支持者丹尼尔·奥利瓦（Daniel Oliva）说。“它产生了影响。”
迈克尔·卡特（Michael Carter）是桑德斯（Sanders）的前志愿人员，也是纽约州参议员朱莉娅•萨拉萨（Julia Salazar）（现为自称民主社会主义者）的现任组织者，他称该领域的其余合并“正好是时机”。
卡特说：“我们还没有在一对一的辩论中见过拜登和伯尼。我认为拜登不会采用这种形式。” 在赛场急剧萎缩之后，他称拜登的前锋状态“不可避免”。
其他人则指责媒体创造了叙事，他们说这样早就把桑德斯排除在外了。这是桑德斯竞选活动在竞选过程中也提出过几次的论据。他的团队在2月下旬加大了对MSNBC的批评，认为他们在早期投票的州淡化或忽略了他的成功。
26岁的桑德斯（Sanders）志愿者阿耶莎·瓦达万（Ayesha Wadhawan）说：“尽管媒体没有把拜登（Biden）排在这个巨大的领先位置，但媒体还是倾向于将拜登（Biden）放在这个巨大的领先位置。” “我希望他能赶上代表们，这没有太大的余地。”
桑德斯（Sanders）竞选活动特别惨重的损失是密歇根州，这是当晚最大的代表罢工。这位参议员在2016年意外击败希拉里·克林顿（Hillary Clinton）的胜利是他竞选的转折点，因为这彰显了他在中西部工人阶级选民中的吸引力。
但是在周二晚上，即民意调查结束后不久，大湖州被要求任命前副总统。密歇根州比赛结果公布后不久，该酒吧的桑德斯支持者人数减少了。
一位支持者在提早离开看守会时听到“这很糟”。
截至周二晚上11点，仍未从六个州中的三个州投票表决。尽管桑德斯在华盛顿和北达科他州稍有领先，但北达科他州，华盛顿和爱达荷州仍然没有预计的赢家。但是在初选之前，FiveThirtyEight预测者预测拜登将席卷每个州。
因此，在超级星期二和3月10日连续表现不佳之后，桑德斯可能会发现很难证明继续他的竞选是有道理的。尽管桑德斯表示，如果拜登有多位代表参加，他将退出，但对于担心有争议的大会（专家称会令民主党陷入混乱）的担忧已得到缓解。
但是很明显，如果参议员不从中西部的拜登那里接更多的代表，他可能会发现很难在其他地方找到很多支持。由于他在非裔美国选民中的实力，这位前副总统准备在其余的南部各州，例如乔治亚州和路易斯安那州，获得巨大的代表优势。佛罗里达州的另一项重大选举奖预计将是拜登的胜利。
尽管桑德斯的许多支持者都说他应该参加比赛。毕竟，仍然有1000多名代表争夺战，不久之后，像纽约这样的进步国家将有机会参与其中。
“他很沮丧，他没有离开，”奥利瓦说。
"It was all very optimistic three weeks ago."
That's how David Robin, like most supporters of Bernie Sanders, saw the Democratic primary for president after the Vermont senator picked up a trio of victories in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada in early February.
Then former Vice President Joe Biden upended the race with a big win in South Carolina, edging out his competitors by 40 percentage points. That victory carried him through Super Tuesday on March 3, where he won 10 of the 14 states in play.
Even after that, Robin—who's been a Sanders supporter since Occupy Wall Street in 2011 and is the co-founder of New York City for Bernie 2020—remained hopeful. After all, the senator was closer in the delegate count than he was in 2016. Four years ago, he was down by roughly 200 delegates after Super Tuesday. Heading into tonight's primaries, he was trailing Biden by fewer than 100 delegates.
But now, after Biden quickly notched three decisive victories in Mississippi, Michigan and Missouri in what some have dubbed "mini-Super Tuesday" or "Super Tuesday 2," the mood has shifted.
"It's not the results I would have looked for or hoped for," Robin said, admitting it's not a "great sign" but that "we need to keep fighting."
So what happened exactly? The senator's supporters, dozens of whom gathered at a bar in Brooklyn, New York to watch the results from six primaries come in live on Tuesday night, have a few different ideas.
Many of them point to the wave of moderate candidates who dropped out of the race. Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Tom Steyer and Mike Bloomberg all exited the race in the span of four days earlier this month. Three of those candidates—Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Bloomberg—immediately endorsed the former vice president. Bloomberg, the billionaire, is expected to throw his unlimited resources behind Biden in the coming months.
"You had so many moderates in the race and once they all dropped out they decided Biden was more their speed and that's who they're going with," said Daniel Oliva, a 28-year-old Sanders supporter. "It had an impact."
Michael Carter, a past Sanders volunteer and a current organizer for New York State Senator Julia Salazar (a self-described Democratic socialist), called the rest of the field's consolidation "precisely timed."
"We haven't been able to see Biden and Bernie in a one-on-one debate yet. I don't think that's a format Biden will be very strong in," Carter said. He called Biden's front runner status "inevitable" after the field shrunk dramatically.
Others blame the media for creating a narrative that they say counted Sanders out so early on. That's an argument the Sanders campaign has also made a few times over the course of the campaign. His team amped up their criticism of MSNBC in late February, arguing that they slighted or ignored his success in the early-voting states.
"The media tends to project Biden in this huge lead even though he's not in this huge lead," said Ayesha Wadhawan, a 26-year-old Sanders volunteer. "I'm hopeful he can catch up in delegates, it's not such a big margin to cover."
A particularly devastating loss for the Sanders campaign was Michigan, which was the biggest delegate haul of the night. The senator's unexpected upset victory there against Hillary Clinton in 2016 was a turning point for his campaign as it highlighted his appeal among working-class voters in the Midwest.
But on Tuesday night, not long after the polls closed, the Great Lakes State was called for the former vice president. Shortly after Michigan results came in, the bar's population of Sanders supporters dwindled.
"This sucks," could be heard from one supporter as he left the watch party early.
As of 11 p.m. on Tuesday night, results still hadn't come in from three of the six states to vote. North Dakota, Washington and Idaho still had no projected winner, though Sanders had a slight lead in Washington and North Dakota. But before the primary, FiveThirtyEight forecasters predicted Biden would sweep every state.
So after his back-to-back lackluster performances on Super Tuesday and on March 10, Sanders may find it challenging to justify continuing his campaign. Though fears of a contested convention, which experts say would throw the Democratic Party into chaos, have been mitigated since Sanders said he'd drop out if Biden has a plurality of delegates.
But it's clear that if the senator doesn't pick up more delegates from Biden in the Midwest, he'll likely find it difficult to find much support elsewhere. The former vice president is poised to pick up huge delegate advantages in the remaining Southern states, like Georgia and Louisiana, due to his strength among African American voters. Florida, another big electoral prize, is projected to be a Biden win.
Though many of Sanders' supporters say he should stay in the race. After all, there are still over 1,000 delegates up for grabs and soon more progressive states like New York will have the opportunity to weigh in.
"He's down, he's not out," Oliva said.
