在一场激烈的民主党初战中,最近的民意调查显示,在伯尼·桑德斯和唐纳德·特朗普之间假想的对决中,佛蒙特州参议员将取代总统。
由Statista提供的下图显示,RealClear Politics最近进行的平均民意调查显示,桑德斯以百分之五点的优势(49.9%至44.9%)领先特朗普。过去一周内发表的几项调查,包括蒙茅斯大学,雅虎新闻/ YouGov和CNN,显示桑德斯分别以4、6和7点击败特朗普。
希尔/哈里斯X的另一项民意测验发现,选民比特朗普更偏爱任何民主提名人七分。但是拉斯穆森上个月进行的一项调查却发现与此相反。它显示特朗普击败桑德斯七分。
桑德斯与总统的强劲一对一对决预示着白宫的良好前景,希望在周二举行的另外六个州举行初选之前。前副总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)将寻求扩大领导地位,而桑德斯(Sanders)希望反弹并重新获得领先优势。后者将更加困难,因为民意测验显示,拜登在代表众多的密歇根州中将胜过对手。
桑德斯和特朗普之间的假设结果反映了民意测验拜登在大选中对特朗普的表现。RealClear Politics的最高民意调查平均值显示,拜登以6个百分点(从50.3%降至44.3%)击败了特朗普。
尽管桑德斯和拜登都声称他们最有能力将特朗普免职,同时指责对方对民主党及其在11月击败总统的能力可能构成危险。
拜登和许多温和,易受伤害的国会议员表示,自称民主社会主义者的桑德斯会伤害选民。桑德斯和他的支持者提出了前任副总统的g污和不正确的说法,这使他的心理健康受到质疑,并使他容易受到特朗普和共和党人的袭击。
由于超级星期二的强劲表现,拜登飙升之后,桑德斯目前落后91名代表。选民们将于本周二在六个州前往投票站:密歇根州,华盛顿州,密苏里州,密西西比州,爱达荷州和北达科他州。在这些竞赛之后,大约有44%的代表被授予了奖项。
下面的图表由Statista显示目前代表人数为周一。拜登以664位居首,桑德斯以573位居前。众议员塔尔西·加巴德(夏威夷州)仍是正式候选人,尽管到目前为止仅召集了两名代表。
为了赢得今年夏天的民主党全国代表大会的提名,候选人至少需要1,991名代表。
As a fierce Democratic primary battle plays out, recent polling suggests that in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup between Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, the Vermont senator would unseat the president.
An average of recent polls compiled by RealClear Politics has Sanders leading Trump by five points, 49.9 percent to 44.9 percent, illustrated in the graphic below provided by Statista. Several surveys published within the past week, including by Monmouth University, Yahoo News/YouGov and CNN, show Sanders beating Trump by four, six and seven points, respectively.
An additional poll by Hill/HarrisX found that voters prefer any democratic nominee over Trump by seven points. But a survey by Rasmussen last month found the contrary. It showed Trump besting Sanders by seven points.
Sanders' strong one-on-one match-ups with the president bode well for the White House hopeful ahead of primary elections in six more states on Tuesday. Former Vice President Joe Biden will look to expand his lead while Sanders hopes to rebound and regain the frontrunner spot. The latter will be more difficult as polling suggests Biden will outperform his opponent in the delegate-rich state of Michigan, among others.
The hypothetical results between Sanders and Trump mirror that of how polls say Biden would perform against Trump in the general election. RealClear Politics' average of top polls have Biden defeating Trump by six points, 50.3 percent to 44.3 percent.
This despite both Sanders and Biden claiming they are best poised to oust Trump from office while accusing the other of being potentially dangerous for the Democratic Party and its ability to defeat the president in November.
Biden and many moderate, vulnerable members of Congress say Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist, would hurt down-ballot Democrats. Sanders and his supporters have suggested gaffs and inaccurate claims by the former vice president call into question his mental fitness and makes him susceptible to attacks from Trump and Republicans.
Sanders currently trails by 91 delegates after Biden surged ahead thanks to a strong Super Tuesday performance. Voters will head to the polls this Tuesday in six states: Michigan, Washington state, Missouri, Mississippi, Idaho and North Dakota. After those contests, roughly 44 percent of pledged delegates will have been awarded.
The chart below by Statista shows the current delegate count as of Monday. Biden leads with 664 followed by Sanders with 573. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) is still officially a candidate, despite so far mustering just two delegates.
To win the party nomination at this summer's Democratic National Convention, a candidate needs at least 1,991 delegates.