要当选总统，候选人必须做好很多事情。当然，他们必须是一名优秀的政治家，但他们也必须有一些运气。话虽如此，乔·拜登将尝试做任何一位候选人都没有做过的事情——那就是在爱荷华州党团会议和新罕布什尔州初选都没有获得前两名的情况下，确保他们党的提名。
当爱荷华州核心小组的结果在今年出现时，两个候选人在谁是获胜者的问题上产生了争论——皮特·巴蒂吉格，印第安纳州南本德的无忧无虑的前市长，和伯尼·桑德斯，佛蒙特州坚定的参议员。拜登直接排在第四位。
昨天新罕布什尔州初选结束时，拜登排名更低——曾经最受欢迎的民主党候选人排名第五。
在美国的第一次核心会议和初选中出现了两次糟糕的表现，拜登阵营的希望可能正在减少，或许这是理所当然的。没有一个总统候选人，无论是民主党人还是共和党人，在成为拜登的候选人之后，继续成为他们党的候选人——在爱荷华州和新罕布什尔州分别是第四和第五。
1992年，比尔·克林顿最接近完成这一壮举。他在爱荷华州获得第四名，在新罕布什尔州获得第二名。但是后一个近乎胜利的胜利让他把自己塑造成了“东山再起的孩子”，这是帮助他获得民主党提名并最终赢得总统选举不可或缺的公关手段。
唯一一次出现这样的胜利场景是在1972年，当时民主党人乔治·麦戈文在爱荷华州排名第三，在新罕布什尔州排名第二。麦戈文最终将赢得民主党总统候选人提名，但在总统选举中输给了理查德·尼克松。
因此，这些事件很少发生——从1972年到2016年，在12组核心小组和初选中，每一个其他候选人都将在两次竞选中获得前两名或更差的成绩后落选。
这种类型的东西有很多。虽然爱荷华州的核心小组和新罕布什尔州的初选从理论上来说并不糟糕，但前两次选举活动引发了公众舆论、媒体关注或监督的势头，以及候选人的资金流入。
但是，这位前副总统仍有一种方式可以反弹，并在此过程中书写历史:赢得南卡罗来纳州。
尽管前景黯淡，但在拉里·萨巴托看来，这是一次“严重的衰退”，他是一名政治学家，也是弗吉尼亚大学的政治学教授。他说，拜登担任总统并非不可能，但南卡罗来纳州对拜登的竞选至关重要。
乔·拜登面临着一项艰巨的任务
“我认为他把所有的赌注都押在了南卡罗来纳州，”萨巴托说，“他想把它作为三天后‘大事件’的跳板——超级星期二”。
南卡罗来纳州对拜登来说至关重要，因为他“一直以来的优势就是他在非洲裔美国人中的强大支持，”萨巴托继续说道，“在民主党初选中，他通常拥有40%到50%甚至更多的选票。”
“如果拜登不能在他的强项上做得很好，那么他的时代就真的结束了，”他说。
萨巴托补充说，从各方面考虑，你“不应该把候选人排除在外”，直到他们的前景完全崩溃。如果拜登想获得前所未有的成就，或许成为“复出小子”的第二代，那么南卡罗来纳州就是了。
新闻周刊已经通过电子邮件联系了拜登竞选团队，代表们还没有回复。
HISTORY SAYS JOE BIDEN HAS NO SHOT AT BEING PRESIDENT
To be elected president, a lot has to go right for a candidate. They have to be a quality politician, for sure, but they must also have some luck on their side. With that said, Joe Biden will attempt to do what no single candidate has done before— and that's secure their party's nomination without a top-two finish in both the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire primary.
When the results of the Iowa Caucus trickled in this year, there was contention between two candidates on who the winner was—between Pete Buttigieg, the happy-go-lucky former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, and Bernie Sanders, the staunch senator of Vermont. It was Biden who sat squarely in fourth.
And at the closing of the New Hampshire primary yesterday, Biden placed even lower—the once-favorite Democratic candidate slotted in fifth.
With two poor showings in the nation's first caucus and primary, hope may be dwindling in the Biden camp, and perhaps rightfully so. Not one single presidential candidate, Democrat or Republican, has gone on to become their party's nominee after being in Biden's position—fourth and fifth in Iowa and New Hampshire respectively.
In 1992, Bill Clinton came closest to accomplishing this feat. He finished fourth in Iowa and second in New Hampshire. But the latter near-win allowed him to frame himself as the "comeback kid," which was integral PR to helping him secure the Democratic party nomination and eventually win the presidential election.
The only other instance where a winning scenario like this occurred was in 1972, when Democrat George McGovern placed third in Iowa and second in New Hampshire. McGovern would eventually win the Democratic presidential nomination but lose to Richard Nixon in the presidency.
So these events are rare—every other candidate in 12 sets of caucuses and primaries spanning from 1972 to 2016 would lose after finishing top two or worse in both contests.
There's a lot that goes into this type of thing. While the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire primary aren't damning—on paper—the first two election events set in motion a momentum of public opinion, media attention or scrutiny, and a candidate's inflow of funding.
But, there is still one way that the former vice-president can rebound, and write history in the process: win South Carolina.
Despite grim prospects, which have taken a "severe downturn" in Larry Sabato's eyes, a political scientist and professor of politics at the University of Virginia. A Biden Presidency isn't impossible, but South Carolina is crucial to Biden's campaign, he said.
Joe Biden faces a tough task
"I think he's betting everything on South Carolina" and he wants to use it as a springboard to the 'big one' three days later—Super Tuesday," Sabato said.
South Carolina is so vital to Biden because his "strength all along has been his strong support among African Americans," Sabato went on, "which usually comprises 40 to 50 percent or more of the vote in democratic primaries."
"If Biden can't do well in his area of strength, then it really is over for him," he said.
All things considered, you "shouldn't write off candidates," Sabato added, until their prospects completely collapse. If Biden wants to achieve feats never before done, perhaps becoming the second coming of the "comeback kid," then South Carolina it is.
Newsweek has reached out to the Biden campaign through email and representatives have not yet responded.
