虽然选举年就要到了，但仍有十几名候选人争夺民主党提名，在明年11月的一场势均力敌的竞选中与唐纳德·特朗普总统较量。

15名民主党候选人继续竞选至2020年，他们是麦克·班尼、乔·拜登、迈克尔·布隆伯格、科里·布克、皮特·巴蒂吉、朱利安·卡斯特罗、约翰·德莱尼、图西·加巴德、艾米·克洛布查尔、德瓦尔·帕特里克、汤姆·施泰尔、伯尼·桑德斯、伊丽莎白·沃伦、玛丽安娜·威廉森和杨安泽。

但在全国范围内，这场竞争基本上已经转向拜登、桑德斯和沃伦三人竞争。几个月来，这三人组一直稳步领先于几乎所有的全国民调。

在最新的NPR/美国公共广播公司新闻小时/玛丽莎民意测验中，拜登领先，24%的支持率来自民主党选民和倾向民主党的独立人士。前副总统紧随其后的是桑德斯，他获得了22%的支持。调查显示沃伦名列第三，17%的民主党选民和倾向民主党的独立人士支持她的竞选。

但是提前投票的州就有点不同了。距离美国2020年的第一次竞选爱荷华州核心会议还有不到六周的时间，但迪吉格在这个战场州经历了飞速的崛起。美国有线电视新闻网/得梅因登记册11月份的民意调查显示，印第安纳州市长南本德以25%的支持率高居榜首。沃伦、拜登和桑德斯紧随其后。

此外，有些刚刚参加竞选的候选人有资源在2020年产生巨大影响。彭博，一位前纽约市长，估计价值540亿美元，在11月底加入了这个主要领域。另一位亿万富翁候选人汤姆·施泰尔在民调中攀升至足以超过几位职业政治家，进入12月的辩论阶段。

尽管民主党的领域仍然很大，资深政治战略家乔·特里皮预测候选人名单将“紧随爱荷华州之后”开始瓦解

“我们以前有多个候选字段。问题是我们已经几十年没吃了。特里皮说:“人们完全低估了爱荷华州在改变竞选动态方面的重要性。”新闻周刊。“一直都是这样，除非万有引力定律在科学上被完全否定，否则我认为这将会发生。”

但即使是民主党初选的顶级候选人，如拜登或巴蒂吉格，也可能很难在大选中击败特朗普。总统在共和党中的民调仍然异常出色，来自德克萨斯州等关键州的调查显示，他击败了所有潜在的民主党挑战者。

艾伦·李奇曼是美国历史学家，他自1984年以来一直正确预测每一次总统选举新闻周刊2020年的比赛“太接近了，无法预测”

在12月19日的第六次民主党总统候选人辩论中，民主党总统候选人杨安泽、皮特·巴蒂吉、伊丽莎白·沃伦、乔·拜登、伯尼·桑德斯、艾米·克洛布查尔和汤姆·斯特耶尔从左向右。十几名候选人仍在争夺该党的提名。

李奇曼也许最出名的是开发了“白宫的13把钥匙”——一个他用来做选举预测的“对或错”标准的列表。这些指标包括经济、在职和丑闻等。当在职者的五个或更少的指标为假时，李奇曼预测连任成功。但是如果六个或更多的指标对白宫居住者来说是错误的，系统预测挑战者将会获胜。

“只有一个关键与具有挑战性的政党候选人的身份有关，那就是该候选人是否是像罗纳德·里根或约翰·肯尼迪那样的一代人、鼓舞人心、魅力非凡的候选人。到目前为止，我认为民主党领域没有人能够把这一特殊的关键转向唐纳德·特朗普和共和党人，”李奇曼说。

这位美国大学教授补充说，一旦民主党正式提名其候选人，这些指标可能会改变，但截至目前，“没有一个被提名者在全体选民中显示出真正的鼓舞人心的潜力。”

李奇曼说:“在特朗普时代，事情会在一夜之间发生变化，所以今年很难做出明确的预测。”。

接下来的15名民主党候选人是提前投票的竞赛和几次辩论。爱荷华州核心会议将于2月3日举行，随后新罕布什尔州初选将于2月11日举行，南卡罗来纳州初选将于2月29日举行。

2020年初还有四场民主党辩论。民主党全国委员会最近宣布1月14日在爱荷华州举行辩论，一场于2月7日在新罕布什尔州举行，另一场于2月19日在内华达州举行，第四场于2月25日在南卡罗来纳州举行。

尽管受到候选人的批评，委员会再次提高了参加爱荷华州第七次民主党辩论的门槛。

HERE'S WHERE THINGS STAND IN THE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY HEADING INTO 2020

While the election year is nearly upon us, there are still more than a dozen candidates vying for the Democratic Party's nomination to take on President Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup next November.

The 15 Democratic candidates continuing their campaigns into 2020 are Michael Bennet, Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Julian Castro, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Amy Klobuchar, Deval Patrick, Tom Steyer, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Marianne Williamson and Andrew Yang.

But nationally the race has largely shifted to a three-candidate competition among Biden, Sanders and Warren. This trio has been steadily topping nearly every national poll for months.

In the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, Biden was in the lead, with 24 percent support from Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning independents. The former vice president was closely followed by Sanders, who had 22 percent support. The survey showed Warren finishing third, with 17 percent of Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning independents backing her bid.

But the early-voting states are a bit of a different story. With less than six weeks until the Iowa caucuses, the nation's first 2020 contests, Buttigieg has experienced a meteoric rise in the battleground state. A CNN/Des Moines Register poll from November showed the South Bend, Indiana mayor, topping the field, with 25 percent support in the state. He was followed by Warren, Biden and Sanders.

Plus, there are candidates who just recently entered the race who have the resources to make a big impact in 2020. Bloomberg, a former New York City mayor estimated to be worth $54 billion, joined the primary field at the end of November. Tom Steyer, another billionaire candidate, climbed enough in the polls to qualify for the December debate stage ahead of several career politicians.

Even though the Democratic field remains large, veteran political strategist Joe Trippi predicts that the list of candidates will start to break down "immediately after Iowa."

"We have had multi-candidate fields before. The problem is that we haven't had any in decades. People totally underestimate how important Iowa is in terms of changing the dynamic of the race," Trippi told Newsweek. "It's always been that way, and unless the laws of gravity have been totally scientifically disproven, that is what I think will happen."

But even the Democratic primary's top-tier candidates, such as Biden or Buttigieg, may have a hard time defeating Trump in the general election. The president is still polling exceptionally well among Republicans, and surveys from key states like Texas show him defeating every potential Democratic challenger.

Allan Lichtman, an American historian who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984, told Newsweek that the 2020 race is "too close to call."

From left, Democratic presidential hopefuls Andrew Yang, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar and Tom Steyer during the sixth Democratic presidential debate on December 19. More than a dozen candidates are still vying for the party's nomination.

Lichtman is perhaps best known for developing the "13 keys to the White House"—a list of "true or false" criteria he uses to make his electoral predictions. The metrics include things like the economy, incumbency and scandal. When five or fewer metrics are false for the incumbent, Lichtman predicts a re-election win. But if six or more metrics are false for the White House occupier, the system predicts that the challenger will win.

"Only one of the keys pertains to the identity of the challenging party candidate, and that is whether that candidate is a once-in-a-generation, inspirational, charismatic candidate like a Ronald Reagan or a John F. Kennedy. So far, I don't see anyone in the Democratic field capable of turning that particular key against Donald Trump and the Republicans," Lichtman said.

The American University professor added that these metrics may change once the Democratic Party has officially nominated its candidate, but as of right now, "none of the nominees show real inspirational potential across the entire electorate."

"In the age of Trump, things can change overnight, so this is a very difficult year to make a definitive prediction," Lichtman said.

Next up for the 15 Democratic candidates are the early-voting contests and several debates. The Iowa caucus will be held February 3, followed by the New Hampshire primary on February 11 and South Carolina's on February 29.

There are also four Democratic debates scheduled in early 2020. The Democratic National Committee recently announced a debate in Iowa on January 14, one in New Hampshire on February 7, another in Nevada on February 19 and a fourth in South Carolina on February 25.

The committee is once again raising the requirement thresholds for participation in the seventh Democratic debate, in Iowa, despite criticism from candidates.