根据五点三十八分对50多项全国民意调查的分析,周二众议院民主党人对唐纳德·特朗普总统提出弹劾条款时,公众对该进程的支持自十月份以来已经趋于平稳。
据《政治报》报道,鉴于民主党过去几周的调查,包括众议院情报和司法委员会的几次公开听证会,议员们正在推进滥用权力和阻挠指控,这些指控将于下周某个时候进行表决。
尽管众议院议长南希·佩洛西9月24日宣布调查后支持率猛增——特朗普公开要求两个国家调查前副总统乔·拜登和他的儿子后支持率似乎达到顶峰——但美国人,尤其是共和党人,在弹劾问题上并没有多少让步。
鉴于共和党议员附和特朗普,一再谴责该调查不合理,公众对弹劾的支持也完全落在党内就不足为奇了。根据五点三十八分,仅9%的共和党人支持弹劾总统,相比之下,将近43%的独立候选人和84%的民主党人支持弹劾总统。
根据YouGov的至少一项调查,这可能是因为共和党人没有参与听证会。尽管在11月15日公布的一项民意调查中,56%的民主党人表示他们计划观看弹劾听证会的“任何部分”,但只有31%的共和党人这么说。独立候选人最不可能观看,只有28%。
众议院议长南希·佩洛西12月10日宣布弹劾唐纳德·特朗普总统的条款。
调查开始于一名告密者,据报道是一名中情局官员,警报情报部门的监察长谈到特朗普7月25日与乌克兰总统沃洛迪米尔·泽伦斯基的电话。根据白宫的粗略记录,特朗普在电话中一再要求泽兰斯基调查拜登夫妇。
最近的众议院听证会有几名目击者称,这些努力并不是此次呼吁所独有的,并且悬而未决的是美国的外交政策决定。目击者称,特朗普不仅拒绝了国会批准的对乌克兰的军事援助,还与该国外交官保持联系,以确保泽兰斯基明白,这取决于他是否同意特朗普要求乌克兰对拜登夫妇进行调查的请求。
尽管有这些指控,YouGov的一项民意调查显示,截至周一,1500名成年人中只有47%的人支持弹劾,只有45%的人同意总统拒绝乌克兰的援助,以换取拜登的调查请求。调查显示,略多于一半的人同意特朗普要求外国领导人调查他的政治对手,不管有没有援助。
值得注意的是,特朗普还呼吁中国在10月3日在记者面前调查拜登夫妇。
根据五点三十八分的分析,当被调查者被问及国会是否应该仅仅开始弹劾程序,而不是在参议院审判后弹劾总统并将其免职时,总支持率高达52.4%。
TRUMP IMPEACHMENT HEARINGS HAVE DONE NOTHING TO CHANGE REPUBLICAN MINDS, POLL SHOWS
As House Democrats presented impeachment articles against President Donald Trump on Tuesday, public support for the process has leveled off since October, according to an analysis of more than 50 national polls by FiveThirtyEight.
In light of the Democrats' investigation over the past few weeks, including several public hearings before the House Intelligence and Judiciary committees, lawmakers are moving forward with abuse of power and obstruction charges, which will be voted on sometime next week, Politico reported.
Though support shot up after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the inquiry on September 24—and seemingly peaked after Trump had publicly asked two countries to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden and his son—Americans, and Republicans in particular, haven't budged much on impeachment.
Given that GOP lawmakers, echoing Trump, have repeatedly decried the inquiry as unjustified, it's no surprise that public support for impeachment also falls squarely within party lines. According to FiveThirtyEight, just north of 9 percent of Republicans support impeaching the president, compared with nearly 43 percent of independents and 84 percent of Democrats.
That could be because Republicans are not tuning into the hearings, according to at least one survey by YouGov. While 56 percent of Democrats said they planned on watching "any part" of the impeachment hearings in a poll released November 15, only 31 percent of Republicans said the same. Independents were the least likely to watch them, at 28 percent.
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi announces articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump on December 10.
The investigation began when a whistleblower, reportedly a CIA officer, alerted the intelligence community's inspector general about Trump's July 25 phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. On the call, Trump repeatedly asked Zelenskiy to investigate the Bidens, according to the White House's rough transcript.
Recent House hearings featured several witnesses that said these efforts were not unique to the call and hung over U.S. foreign policy decisions. Trump not only withheld congressionally approved military aid to Ukraine but also followed up with its diplomats to ensure that Zelenskiy understood it was contingent on his acceding to Trump's request for a Ukrainian investigation of the Bidens, witnesses said.
Despite these allegations, a YouGov poll reported only 47 percent support for impeachment among 1,500 adults as recently as Monday, while just 45 percent agreed that the president withheld the Ukrainian aid in exchange for the requested Biden investigation. Slightly more than half agreed that Trump asked a foreign leader to investigate his political opponent, aid or no aid, according to the survey.
Notably, Trump also called upon China to investigate the Bidens in front of reporters on October 3.
Total support inches up to 52.4 percent when respondents were asked whether Congress should merely begin the process of impeachment, as opposed to impeaching and then removing the president from office after a Senate trial, according to FiveThirtyEight's analysis.