政治专家警告称,民主党候选人伊丽莎白·沃伦的政策可能过于激进,无法吸引摇摆不定的共和党选民,甚至可能引发将2020年大选交给唐纳德·特朗普总统的强烈反对。
沃伦初选的关键要点包括免费全民保健取消学生债务、免费公立大学和对超过5000万美元的收入征收2%的税,以及其他进步政策。
正义民主党集团也与另一个在类似平台上竞选的民主党候选人伯尼·桑德斯有着密切的联系,希望这些政策能够成功地“激励和传递”民主党的基础,纽约时报报道。
民主党总统候选人马萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦于2019年11月17日在内华达州拉斯维加斯的“西部第一”活动上发表演讲。一名政治顾问在《纽约时报》上表示,她在郊区女性中缺乏吸引力。
然而,该报还指出,民调显示,可能觉得特朗普不讨人喜欢的摇摆选民宁愿看到奥巴马医改等现有计划得到改善,也不希望看到沃伦倡导的重大结构性变革的程度。
杰弗里·弗兰克尔,哈佛大学肯尼迪学院的经济学家,克林顿政府时期的经济顾问委员会成员,讲述泰晤士报, “沃伦参议员的许多提议确实激进,可能会产生意想不到的后果。
“我担心,到目前为止,竞选期间提出这些提议最糟糕的意外后果是唐纳德·特朗普连任。”
舆论战略的创始人比尔·麦金托夫(Bill McInturff)表示,任何想在一个平台上竞选以免除所有学生贷款、为非法居住在美国的移民提供免费医疗保健并取消所有私人医疗保险的候选人,“都将围绕一系列职位将选举国有化,这将使民主党在该国任何摇摆席位上都非常困难。”
与此同时,北极星观点研究的主席惠特·艾尔斯告诉记者泰晤士报“受过良好教育的郊区选民,尤其是女性,对特朗普总统感到不舒服。
“但是他们不会投票给一个想拿走他们的私人健康保险,使边境合法化,增加50%的政府开支,禁止水力压裂的候选人,尤其是在宾夕法尼亚州、俄亥俄州和科罗拉多州。”
“伊丽莎白·沃伦是上帝给唐纳德·特朗普和共和党候选人的礼物,”他补充道。
沃伦可能会因周三民主党初选辩论前的一项民意调查而受到鼓舞。该调查显示,尽管在30岁至44岁的选民中,沃伦与桑德斯并列第二,仅次于乔拜登,但她比她的竞争对手获得了更多的收益。据石英称。
她似乎也软化了对美国医疗保健系统全面改革的立场,根据华盛顿邮报建议允许而不是强迫人们加入政府健康保险,作为全民健康保险的第一步。
然而,政治分析家大卫·乏色曼告诉记者泰晤士报民主党在2020年最糟糕的情况是沃伦有机会胜出,因为摇摆选民会投票支持共和党国会来制衡她。
“在伊丽莎白·沃伦统治下竞选将会很艰难。到目前为止,她在战场上与特朗普的较量最弱,她的提议也不太受欢迎,”他说。
ELIZABETH WARREN IS 'GOD'S GIFT TO DONALD TRUMP,' CLAIMS POLITICAL CONSULTANT—SAYS SUBURBAN WOMEN WON'T VOTE FOR HER
The policies of Democrat contender Elizabeth Warren could be too radical to appeal to wavering Republican voters and may even trigger a backlash handing the 2020 election to President Donald Trump, political experts have warned.
The key planks of Warren's primary campaign include free universal health care, cancellation of student debt, free public college and a two percent tax on income over $50 million, among other progressive policies.
The group Justice Democrats, which also has strong ties to another Democrat contender running on a similar platform, Bernie Sanders, hopes such policies will be successful in "energizing and delivering" to the Democrat base, The New York Times reported.
Democratic presidential hopeful Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren speaks onstage at "First in the West" event in Las Vegas, Nevada on November 17, 2019. A political consultant has said in the New York Times that she lacks appeal among suburban women.
However, the paper also pointed to polls suggesting that swing voters who might find Trump unpalatable would rather see existing programs, such as Obamacare, improved, and do not want to see the level of major structural change that Warren is advocating.
Jeffrey Frankel, an economist at Harvard's Kennedy School and a member of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton administration, told The Times, "many of Senator Warren's proposals are indeed radical and could have unintended consequences.
"I fear that by far the worst of the unintended consequences of making these proposals during the campaign is to get Donald Trump re-elected."
Bill McInturff founder of Public Opinion Strategies, said any candidate who wanted to run on a platform to forgive all student loans, give free health care to immigrants living in the U.S. illegally and take away all private health insurance is "going to nationalize the election around a set of positions that is going to make it very difficult for Democrats in any swing seat in the country."
Meanwhile, Whit Ayres, president of North Star Opinion Research, told The Times that "well-educated suburban voters, especially women, are uncomfortable with President Trump.
"But they are not going to vote for a candidate who wants to take away their private health insurance, decriminalize the border, increase government spending by 50 percent, and ban fracking, especially in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Colorado."
"Elizabeth Warren is God's gift to Donald Trump and Republican candidates," he added.
Warren could be boosted by a poll ahead of the Democratic primary debate on Wednesday which suggested that, although neck and neck with Sanders in second place behind Joe Biden, she has made more gains than her rivals among voters aged 30 to 44, according to Quartz.
She also appears to have softened her stance on a complete overhaul of the U.S. health-care system, according to The Washington Post, by proposing that people should be allowed, but not forced, to enroll in government health insurance as a first step toward universal health coverage.
However, political analyst David Wasserman told The Times that the worst-case scenario in 2020 for the Democrats would be to have Warren at the top of ticket with a chance to win because swing voters would vote in support of a Republican Congress to act as a check on her.
"It would be tough to run under Elizabeth Warren. As of now, she runs the weakest against Trump in battleground areas and her proposals are not broadly popular," he said.