佛罗里达州的村庄民主党人越来越担心，随着胆大的共和党人在州长和美国参议院的关键竞争中利用分裂的文化问题和人口结构的变化，佛罗里达州这个曾经是美国首屈一指的摇摆州可能会在今年秋天及以后溜走。
这种焦虑在上周民主党人的高尔夫球车游行中显而易见，其中包括参议院候选人瓦尔·戴明斯(Val Demings)在村庄的游行，这是4号州际公路走廊以北的一个退休社区。曾经是该州的一个政治混合区选举一些民主党人现在表示，他们感到越来越孤立。
“我很害怕，”77岁的苏·沙利文说，感叹该州的右倾化。"这里很少有民主党人。"
在接受采访时，挑战共和党参议员马尔科·卢比奥的众议员、前奥兰多警察局长戴明斯承认，她所在政党的中期信息没有像她希望的那样引起共鸣。
“我们必须更好地讲述我们的故事，清楚地证明谁真正站在每天必须去上班的人一边，”她说。
这种挫败感是共和党近十年来在佛罗里达州取得进展的高潮，在那里，候选人磨练了非常保守的社会和经济信息，以建立一个包括农村选民和拉丁美洲人，特别是古巴裔美国人的联盟。唐纳德·特朗普2016年在这里的胜利标志着该州两次支持后的演变巴拉克·奥巴马。尽管特朗普在2020年失去了白宫，但他在佛罗里达州的支持率超过3个百分点，这在一个选举通常不到一个百分点的州是一个了不起的优势。
总统乔·拜登将于11月1日，也就是选举日的前一周访问该州，以团结民主党人。戴明斯说，她已经与总统就共同竞选进行了两次谈话，但她不能确认任何共同露面。民主党州长候选人查理·克里斯特(Charlie Crist)表示，他将在集会当天与拜登一起参加一个私人筹款活动，但他不确定他们是否会一起出现在公共场合。
克里斯特在一次采访中说:“如果我们能挤出一点公共广播时间，那将是一件我非常欢迎的好事。”。
尽管如此，共和党仍然乐观地认为，即使在民主党的长期根据地，它也能不断取得胜利。一些共和党人乐观地认为，该党可能会赢得迈阿密-戴德县，这种曾经不可想象的前景实际上可能会消除民主党在全州竞选中的胜利，包括总统选举。
在佛罗里达州西南部的李县，一个主要的共和党据点，甚至没有一个毁灭性的飓风似乎削弱了共和党的势头。事实上，共和党人和民主党人私下同意，造成100多人死亡的飓风伊恩可能有助于共和党州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯扩大他的吸引力。周一，他将参加与克里斯特的辩论，在辩论中，他可能会强调自己在一场严重危机中对国家的管理。
但是这位44岁的共和党州长第一任期的大部分时间都在关注敏感的社会问题。他签署了新的法律，新的法律禁止怀孕15周的堕胎，强奸或乱伦也不例外，同时阻止佛罗里达许多学校批评种族理论和LGBTQ问题。他还剥夺了美国职业棒球大联盟(major league)一支反对枪支暴力的球队的数百万美元，并领导了消除迪士尼特殊税收地位的努力，因为迪士尼谴责了他所谓的“不要说同性恋”法案。
在飓风前夕，德桑蒂斯将数十名委内瑞拉移民从德克萨斯州运往玛莎葡萄园岛，以引起人们对美墨边境非法移民的关注。
克里斯特，前国会议员和前州长本人，承认一些选民“挖掘”德桑蒂斯对文化问题的关注，“但大多数佛罗里达人都是善良、正派的人。”他指出，至少有一名西班牙裔电台主持人将德桑蒂斯与古巴前独裁者菲德尔·卡斯特罗相提并论。
“通常，当你离开初选时，人们会转向中间。至少可以说，他显然没有这样做，”克里斯特在谈到他的共和党对手时说。
但令许多民主党人恐惧的是，德桑蒂斯可能成为自2006年以来第一个赢得州长竞选超过1个百分点的佛罗里达州人。这种表现可能会在美国参议院选举中提升卢比奥，同时帮助共和党赢得该州28个众议院席位中的20个。
如果德桑蒂斯像预期的那样大获全胜，他的盟友认为他将有政治资本在2024年发起一场成功的总统竞选——无论特朗普是否参选。
“这令人震惊和恐惧，”州民主党主席曼尼·迪亚兹(Manny Diaz)谈到德桑蒂斯一再愿意利用其办公室的权力攻击政治对手，无论是个人对手还是迪士尼这样的标志性企业。
拒绝了采访请求的德桑蒂斯，已经通过挑战传统智慧获得了成功。
四年前，他在820多万张选票中以32，436票的优势击败了民主党人安德鲁·吉勒姆，这一差距如此之小，以至于需要重新计票。
但在此后的四年里，共和党人抹去了佛罗里达州民主党人几十年来捍卫的选民登记优势。当2018年选举的登记截止时，民主党人享有263，269票的优势。截至9月30日，共和党领先292，533名选民，比德桑蒂斯的第一个任期多出近556，000名登记选民。
“我们不再是一个摇摆州。我们实际上正在消灭民主党，”佛罗里达州共和党主席乔·格鲁特斯说，他是迪桑蒂斯的主要盟友。
虽然他说他的政党专注于传统的餐桌问题，如天然气价格和通货膨胀，但格鲁特斯倾向于文化斗争——特别是佛罗里达州共和党对小学性教育和LGBTQ问题的反对——这决定了德桑蒂斯的任期。
“我不希望其他人教我的孩子关于鸟类和蜜蜂以及性别流动性的问题，”格鲁特斯说。
两党的策略师都认为，佛罗里达州的政治转变是由多种因素造成的，但人们普遍认为，自从德桑蒂斯成为共和党抵制大流行相关公共卫生措施的领导人以来，共和党人受益于新选民的涌入。
根据美国人口普查局的估计，在2020年至2021年期间，平均每天搬进该州的人数比搬走的人数多667人。
共和党的部分转变也可以归因于生活在佛罗里达州北部农村地区的人，这些地区是南部腹地的残余，他们改变了自己的登记，以反映他们的投票模式。许多人登记为民主党人，因为他们的前辈们都登记为民主党人，但是所谓的南方民主党人仍然坚定地投票给共和党人。
但仅此并不能解释民主党今年秋天的挑战。
民主党人特别关注迈阿密戴德县的趋势，该县有150万达到投票年龄的拉美裔人，过去20年来一直是民主党的大本营，共和党在上次总统选举中取得了重大进展。两周后，该地区可能会变红。
佛罗里达州副州长珍妮特·努涅斯(Jeanette Núez)上周在与其他政党领导人的一次活动中说，“我们在迈阿密戴德县看到这么多拉美裔人涌向共和党。”。“我现在要做一个预测:我们将在11月8日赢得迈阿密戴德县。”
与此同时，在佛罗里达州西南部，成千上万的共和党选民正在收拾他们被飓风伊恩摧毁的房屋和车辆，飓风伊恩造成了100多人死亡，造成了数百亿美元的损失。
破损的船只和巨大的混凝土码头仍然散落在迈尔斯堡的海岸线上，迈尔斯堡是美国最倾向于共和党的县之一李县的县城。4级飓风登陆近一个月后，数千所房屋被毁，几所学校仍然关闭。
尽管如此，县财产评估师和国家共和党成员马特·考德威尔对他的政党的政治前景充满信心。
“大多数人，90%住在这个县的人都或多或少地恢复了生活，”他在参观迈尔斯堡码头时说，码头上覆盖着扭曲的金属和皱巴巴的游艇。
考德威尔称赞共和党州长在清理工作中经常出现，并暗示各政治派别的选民将在选举日奖励他。
德桑蒂斯本人很乐观，因为他在周末不远处的蓬塔戈尔达发布了风暴最新消息。州长提到了即将到来的选举，但他的讲话集中在救灾工作上。
“我们在桥梁和所有其他事情上取得了成功，部分原因是我们让社区团结起来，”德桑蒂斯说。“每个人都朝着同一个方向划船。这很重要。”
A swing state no more? GOP confidence grows in Florida
THE VILLAGES, Fla. --Democrats are increasingly concerned that Florida, once the nation's premier swing state, may slip away this fall and beyond as emboldened Republicans capitalize on divisive cultural issues and demographic shifts in crucial contests for governor and the U.S. Senate.
The anxiety was apparent last week during a golf cart parade of Democrats featuring Senate candidate Val Demings at The Villages, a retirement community just north of the Interstate 4 corridor. Once a politically mixed part of the state whereelections were often decided, some Democrats now say they feel increasingly isolated.
“I am terrified,” said 77-year-old Sue Sullivan, lamenting the state’s rightward shift. “There are very few Democrats around here.”
In an interview, Demings, a congresswoman and former Orlando police chief challenging Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, conceded that her party’s midterm message isn’t resonating as she had hoped.
“We have to do a better job of telling our stories and clearly demonstrating who’s truly on the side of people who have to go to work every day,” she said.
The frustration is the culmination of nearly a decade of Republican inroads in Florida, where candidates have honed deeply conservative social and economic messages to build something of a coalition that includes rural voters and Latinos, particularly Cuban Americans. Donald Trump's win here in 2016 signaled the evolution after the state twice backedBarack Obama. And while he lost the White House in 2020, Trump carried Florida by more than 3 percentage points, a remarkable margin in a state where elections were regularly decided by less than a percentage point.
President Joe Biden will visit the state Nov. 1, exactly one week before Election Day, to rally Democrats. Demings said she's had two conversations with the president about campaigning together, but she could not confirm any joint appearances. And Charlie Crist, the Democratic nominee for governor, said he would attend a private fundraiser with Biden on the day of the rally, but he wasn't sure whether they would appear together in public.
“If we could squeeze in a little public airtime, that’d be a wonderful thing I would welcome,” Crist said in an interview.
Still, the GOP is bullish that it can keep notching victories, even in longtime Democratic strongholds. Some Republicans are optimistic the party could carry Miami-Dade County, a once unthinkable prospect that would virtually eliminate the Democrats' path to victory in statewide contests, including presidential elections.
And in southwest Florida’s Lee County, a major Republican stronghold, not even a devastatinghurricaneappears to have dented the GOP’s momentum. In fact, Republicans and Democrats privately agree that Hurricane Ian, which left more than 100 dead, may have helped Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis broaden his appeal. On Monday, he'll participate in a debate against Crist in which he'll likely highlight his stewardship of the state during a searing crisis.
But the 44-year-old Republican governor has spent much of his first term focused on sensitive social issues. He's signed new laws new laws banning abortions at 15 weeks of pregnancy with no exceptions for rape or incest, along with blocking critical race theory and LGBTQ issues from many Florida schools. He has also stripped millions of dollars from a major league baseball team that spoke out against gun violence and led efforts to eliminate Disney's special tax status for condemning his so-called “Don’t Say Gay” bill.
On the eve of the hurricane, DeSantis shipped dozens of Venezuelan immigrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard to call attention to illegal immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border.
Crist, a former congressman and onetime governor himself, acknowledged some voters “dig” DeSantis’ focus on cultural issues, “but most Floridians are good, decent people.” He noted that at least one Hispanic radio host has compared DeSantis to former Cuban dictator Fidel Castro.
“Customarily, when you come out of a primary, people will move to the middle. He’s clearly not doing that, to say the least,” Crist said of his Republican rival.
But to the horror of many Democrats, DeSantis could become the first Floridian to win a governor’s race by more than 1 point since 2006. That kind of showing might lift Rubio in the U.S. Senate election while helping the GOP win as many as 20 of the state's 28 U.S. House seats.
Should DeSantis win big as expected, his allies believe he would have the political capital to launch a successful presidential campaign in 2024 — whether Trump runs or not.
“It’s shocking and it’s scary,” state Democratic Party Chair Manny Diaz said about DeSantis’ repeated willingness to use the power of his office to attack political rivals, whether individual opponents or iconic corporations like Disney.
DeSantis, who declined an interview request, has found success by bucking the conventional wisdom before.
He beat Democrat Andrew Gillum four years ago by 32,436 votes out of more than 8.2 million cast, a margin so narrow that it required a recount.
But in the four years since then, Republicans have erased a voter registration advantage that Florida Democrats had guarded for decades. When registration closed for the 2018 election, Democrats enjoyed a 263,269-vote advantage. As of Sept. 30, Republicans had a lead of 292,533 voters — a swing of nearly 556,000 registered voters over DeSantis' first term.
“We're no longer a swing state. We're actually annihilating the Democrats,” said Florida GOP Chairman Joe Gruters, a leading DeSantis ally.
And while he says his party has focused on traditional kitchen-table issues, such as gas prices and inflation, Gruters leaned into cultural fights — especially the Florida GOP's opposition to sexual education and LGBTQ issues in elementary schools — that have defined DeSantis' tenure.
“I don't want anyone else teaching my kids about the birds and the bees and gender fluidity issues," Gruters said.
Strategists in both parties believe Florida's political shift is due to multiple factors, but there is general agreement that Republicans have benefited from an influx of new voters since DeSantis emerged as the leader of the GOP resistance to the pandemic-related public health measures.
Every day on average over the year between 2020 and 2021, 667 more people moved into the state than moved away, according to U.S. Census estimates.
Part of the Republican shift can also be attributed people living in rural areas of north Florida, remnants of the deep South, changing their registration to reflect their voting patterns. Many people registered as Democrats because generations before them did, but the so-called Dixiecrats still voted solidly Republican.
But that alone does not explain the Democrats' challenge this fall.
Democrats are particularly concerned about the trend in Miami-Dade County, home to 1.5 million Hispanics of voting age and a Democratic stronghold for the past 20 years, where the GOP made significant gains in the last presidential election. In two weeks, the region could turn red.
“We have seen so many Hispanics flock to the Republican party here in Miami-Dade County,” Florida Lt. Gov. Jeanette Núñez said at an event with other party leaders last week. “I’m going to make a prediction right now: We are going to win Miami-Dade County come Nov. 8.”
Meanwhile in southwest Florida, thousands of Republican voters are literally picking up pieces of their shattered homes and vehicles in the wake of Hurricane Ian, which left more than 100 people dead and caused tens of billions of dollars in damage.
Mangled boats and massive chunks of concrete docks still litter the coastline in Fort Myers, the county seat of Lee County, one of the nation's most Republican-leaning counties. Thousands of homes were destroyed and several schools remain closed nearly a month after the Category 4 hurricane made landfall.
Still, Matt Caldwell, the county property appraiser and a member of the state GOP, was confident about his party's political prospects.
“Most of the people, 90% of the people who live in the county are more or less back to life at this point,” he said as he toured a Fort Myers marina covered by twisted metal and crumpled yachts.
Caldwell praised the Republican governor for being a regular presence during cleanup efforts, suggesting that voters across the political spectrum will reward him on Election Day.
DeSantis himself was upbeat as he delivered a storm update not far away in Punta Gorda over the weekend. The governor referenced the upcoming election, but focused his remarks on relief efforts.
“We’ve had success with bridges and all these other things partially because we have the community rallying together,” DeSantis said. “Everyone’s rowing in the same direction. It makes a difference.”
