共和党人正在为周二新罕布什尔州共和党参议员初选中一名有争议的候选人的崛起进行最后一刻的努力,他们担心他的提名可能会使这场大选中失去意义,从而影响该党夺回美国参议院控制权的机会。
在对退役陆军准将、2020年参议员候选人唐·博尔达克(Don Bolduc)绝望了几个月后,共和党人正试图在9月13日初选前给他设置路障。如果卓有成效,这些努力可能会帮助州参议院主席查克·莫尔斯(Chuck Morse),他是唯一一位获得显著民调支持的初选候选人,尽管尚不清楚是否有足够的时间来缩小一些共和党人所说的令人不安的巨大民调差距。
与此同时,民主党人正在干预,暗中推动博尔达克,这表明该党认为他是与民主党参议员玛吉·哈桑(Maggie Hassan)竞选的最弱候选人。
“我们现在看到双方都经历了一个破碎的时刻。我们看到全国共和党人迫切地把重点放在宣传他们认为在大选中最有可能当选的候选人上。共和党策略师杰夫·格拉波内(Jeff Grappone)说,他在新罕布什尔州有丰富的经验,在竞选中没有与任何候选人合作。
“从本质上说,我们看到两个国家的政党都参与进来,试图按照他们想要的条件来塑造这场竞选。显然,共和党人担心博尔达克在大选中的吸引力,”他说。
一些共和党人几个月来一直对博尔达克表示担忧,警告说他可能会将一场顶级参议院竞选变成一场几乎遥不可及的竞选。
博尔达克多年来一直因古怪的言论而成为头条新闻,包括称共和党州长克里斯·苏努努为“中国共产党的同情者”,称美国军队应该在乌克兰“实地介入”,推动废除第17修正案,该修正案规定直接普选美国参议员,并指责时任总统唐纳德·特朗普操纵他因支持对手而输掉的2020年参议院初选。
最重要的是,Bolduc被证明是一个贫血的筹资者,截至8月24日,筹集的资金不足60万美元。与此同时,仅从7月1日到8月24日,哈桑就筹集了430万美元,这是一个昂贵周期中令人印象深刻的筹款优势,可能会为哈桑的连任铺平道路。
“我们已经听到几个国家战略家说,如果唐·博尔达克赢得提名,那么在广告中保留的每一分钱都将在9月14日被收回,”新罕布什尔州共和党战略家迈克·丹尼希说,他为另一个民调数字低的初选候选人凯宾·史密斯提供咨询。
“它很难与唐·博尔达克竞争共和党提名。”
尽管如此,民意调查显示Bolduc是主要的领先者新罕布什尔大学民意调查让他领先莫尔斯21分。
这些数字点燃了华盛顿和康科德的共和党人的怒火,他们正在动员以博尔达克为代价推动莫尔斯。
上个月才成立的超级政治行动委员会白山政治行动委员会(White Mountain PAC)向初选的一个广告预定项目投入了数百万美元,格拉波内称这一收购“让莫尔斯进入了游戏”包括包含至少一个广告抨击博尔达克的“疯狂想法”
苏努努在新罕布什尔州仍然非常受欢迎,他也在晚些时候支持莫尔斯,在新闻发布会上称赞他是击败哈桑的“最佳候选人”,并说他“呼吁所有共和党人加入我。”
New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate Chuck Morse speaks during a debate in Henniker, N.H., Sept. 7, 2022.
玛丽·施瓦姆/美联社
共和党人也在试图引诱特朗普参与竞选——只要不是为了博尔达克。
特朗普对博尔达克的支持将大大有助于锁定他的初选,他上个月对这样的认可表示开放,告诉一名电台主持人博尔达克是一个“坚强的人”。
苏努努的发言人告诉当地一家报纸,苏努努与特朗普进行了交谈,鼓励他在初选中发挥作用。据莫尔斯的顾问戴夫·卡尼(Dave Carney)和另一位知情人士透露,莫尔斯上周还在新泽西州贝德明斯特的前总统高尔夫球场会见了特朗普。
“是的,有一个行动来阻止Bolduc的支持,”知情人士说。“博尔达克是个失败者,赢不了将军。”
尽管如此,博尔达克仍在奋力前行,坚称自己是共和党初选选民寻求的局外人。
他的竞选团队在一份声明中提到哈桑和乔·拜登总统时说,“我们需要一个局外人来DC收拾他们的烂摊子,这场竞选将于9月14日开始。”。
然而,民主党人正在用他们的钱包说,他们同意共和党人的观点,即博尔达克是哈桑在紫色的新罕布什尔州最容易击败的候选人。
参议院多数党PAC,参议院民主党的主要外部团体,与多数党领袖查克·舒默(D-N.Y .)有联系,被释放最近的广告把莫尔斯和参议员米奇·麦康奈尔联系起来。这显然是为了进一步拉开他与共和党初选选民之间的距离,共和党初选选民在很大程度上仍受制于这位前总统。
“为什么共和党人会选择不确定的事情,而不是确定的事情?”卡尼周三接受采访时说。“有一点是肯定的:新罕布什尔州以外的民主党人和共和党人都同意……查克·莫尔斯就是那个人,那个停下来帮忙的人。”
“当然,这很紧急,因为选举就在下周,还有140个小时,”当被问及围绕初选的一系列活动时,他补充道。“只剩下这么多时间了。”
最近的争夺也发生在参议院整体斗争的背景下,目前参议院的比例是50比50,这意味着任何一个种族都可以决定政党的控制权。
“这是参议院的第51次投票,”卡尼说。“所以,我认为这对整个国家都很重要,不仅仅是新罕布什尔州。”
然而,即使博尔达克的批评者成功地将替代者拖过终点线,这位共和党提名人在试图团结一个分裂的共和党时可能会面临阻力。
虽然候选人的立场不符合整齐的意识形态路线,但残酷的竞选活动及其相关报道经常让博尔达克与特朗普的共和党阵营结盟,而莫尔斯则更倾向于温和派。弥合这一差距对两位候选人来说都至关重要,尽管从初选到11月选举日,他们只有很短的时间来弥合这一差距。
“无论共和党提名人是谁,他们都有自己的工作要做,因为他们只有一个月和几周的时间……在大选之前。所以,他们必须在13号和大选之间冲刺,以转移竞选,”新罕布什尔大学调查中心主任安德鲁·史密斯说。
“特朗普和他的支持者,正如我们在其他地方看到的那样,如果他们没有让自己的特定候选人获得提名,他们非常愿意割掉自己的鼻子来泄愤,”他说。“我认为可能会有温和的共和党人愿意在唐·博尔达克的案件中做同样的事情。”
GOP throws up last-minute roadblocks to hard-line Senate candidate in New Hampshire
Republicans are cobbling together an 11th-hour effort to blunt the rise of a controversial candidate in New Hampshire's GOP Senate primary Tuesday, fearing his nomination could take a marquee race off the table, hurting the party's chances of taking back control of the U.S. Senate.
After months of handwringing over Don Bolduc, a retired Army brigadier general and 2020 Senate candidate, Republicans are trying to throw roadblocks in his way just before the Sept. 13 primary. If fruitful, the efforts would likely help state Senate President Chuck Morse, the only other primary candidate notching notable polling support, though it's unclear if there's enough time to close what some Republicans say is an uncomfortably large polling gap.
And Democrats, meanwhile, are intervening to surreptitiously boost Bolduc, a sign the party views him as the weakest candidate to run against Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan.
"We're seeing right now a break-glass moment from both sides. We're seeing national Republicans put an urgent focus on promoting what they view as the most electable candidate in a general election. National Democrats have also come in trying to put their finger on the scale," said Jeff Grappone, a GOP strategist with extensive experience in New Hampshire who isn't working with any candidate in the race.
"Essentially, we're seeing both national parties to come in and try to shape the race on the terms that they want. Clearly, Republicans are concerned about Gen. Bolduc's appeal in the general election," he said.
Some Republicans have voiced concerns for months over Bolduc, warning that he could morph a top Senate race into one virtually out of reach.
Bolduc has made headlines for years with outlandish remarks, including calling Republican Gov. Chris Sununu a "Chinese Communist sympathizer," saying U.S. forces should "get in there on the ground" in Ukraine, pushing for the repeal of the 17th Amendment codifying direct popular election of U.S. senators and accusing then-President Donald Trump of rigging the 2020 Senate primary he lost by endorsing an opponent.
On top of that, Bolduc has proved to be an anemic fundraiser, hauling in under $600,000 by Aug. 24. Hassan, meanwhile, raised $4.3 million just from July 1 to Aug. 24, an impressive fundraising advantage in an expensive cycle that could ease Hassan's path to reelection.
"We've heard several national strategists say that if Don Bolduc wins the nomination, then every dime that has been reserved in advertising will be pulled on September 14," said Mike Dennehy, a New Hampshire GOP strategist advising Kevin Smith, another primary candidate with low poll numbers.
"It's very difficult for it to be competitive with Don Bolduc as the Republican nominee."
Still, polling has shown Bolduc as the primary frontrunner, with aUniversity of New Hampshire pollshowing him up 21 points over Morse.
Those figures have lit a fire under Republicans in Washington and Concord who are mobilizing to boost Morse at Bolduc's expense.
White Mountain PAC, a super PAC that was created only last month, dumped millions of dollars into an ad reservation heading into the primary, a buy that Grappone said "puts [Morse] in the game" andincludes including at least one adslamming Bolduc's "crazy ideas."
Sununu, who remains overwhelmingly popular in New Hampshire, also made a late endorsement for Morse, praising him in a news conference as the "best candidate" to defeat Hassan and saying he's "calling all Republicans to join me."
Republicans are also trying to lure Trump to get involved in the race -- so long as it's not for Bolduc.
A Trump endorsement for Bolduc would go a long way to locking up the primary for him, and he voiced openness to such an imprimatur last month, telling a radio host Bolduc is a "strong guy."
Sununu spoke with Trump to encourage him to play a role in the primary, a Sununu spokesperson told a local newspaper. Morse also met with Trump at the former president's golf course in Bedminster, New Jersey, last week, according to Dave Carney, a consultant for Morse, and a separate source familiar with the matter.
"Yes, there is a move to stop a Bolduc endorsement," the source familiar with the matter said. "Bolduc is a loser and can't win the general."
Nevertheless, Bolduc is plowing ahead, insisting that he's the outsider GOP primary voters are seeking.
"We need an outsider in DC to clean up their mess and that race starts on September 14th," his campaign said in a statement, referencing Hassan and President Joe Biden.
Yet, Democrats are saying with their wallets that they agree with Republicans that Bolduc is the easiest candidate for Hassan to beat in purple New Hampshire.
Senate Majority PAC, Senate Democrats' main outside group with ties to Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., releaseda late adtying Morse to Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., a famous Trump target, in an apparent effort to put more distance between him and a GOP primary electorate that largely remains in thrall with the former president.
"Why would Republicans go with something that is uncertain rather than go with something that is certain?" Carney said in an interview Wednesday. "One thing is for certain: Democrats and Republicans outside of New Hampshire agree…that Chuck Morse is the guy, the guy to stop and the guy to help."
"Of course, it's urgent, because the election is next week, and it's 140 hours away," he added when asked about the flurry of activity around the primary. "There's only so much time left."
The late jockeying is also taking place over the context of the overall fight for the Senate, which is currently split 50-50 -- meaning any one race can decide party control.
"It's the 51st vote in the Senate," Carney said. "So, I think it is important to the whole country, not just New Hampshire."
Yet, even if Bolduc's detractors are successful in dragging an alternative over the finish line, the GOP nominee could face headwinds trying to unite a divided Republican Party.
While the candidates' stances do not fit into neat ideological lines, the brutal campaign and its related coverage have often cast Bolduc as aligned with Trump's flank of the GOP and Morse as more of a moderate. Bridging that gap would be crucial for either candidate, though they only have a short runway to do so between the primary and Election Day in November.
"Whoever the Republican nominee is, they've got their work cut out for them because they only have a month and a couple of weeks…before the general election. So, they've got to sprint between the 13th and the general election, to pivot the campaign," said Andrew Smith, the director of the University of New Hampshire's Survey Center.
"Trump and his supporters, as we've seen in other places, are more than willing to cut off their nose to spite their face if they don't get their particular candidate nominated," he said. "And I think there may be moderate Republicans that are willing to do the same thing in the case of Don Bolduc."