穆迪分析公司的经济学家在一份报告中估计，唐纳德·特朗普总统对华贸易战的进一步升级可能导致美国经济损失数十万个就业岗位，并使其陷入深度衰退。
穆迪表示贸易战升级的可能性为35%。它模拟了美国和中国之间不断升级的贸易冲突的潜在影响，中国5400亿美元的商品进口大部分都被征收关税。
“考虑到鸡的高风险游戏，不难想象一个更黑暗的场景:对所有美中贸易的关税进一步提高，并实施额外的非关税壁垒。”穆迪的报告称。
“在这种情况下，我们假设对所有美中贸易的关税上升到30%，一系列非关税壁垒生效。
“其中包括中国禁止美国技术出口、自愿抵制美国品牌、撤销美国公司的市场许可证、人民币大幅贬值以及威胁出售中国持有的大量美国国债。”
这种情况还假设了美国的报复、国会未能批准与墨西哥和加拿大的新贸易协定、对所有汽车进口征收25%的关税，以及升级对全球经济的巨大连锁效应，从而损害需求和情绪。
根据穆迪的贸易战升级模型，“其结果是投资大幅减少，伴随着价格上涨和消费者的不安，导致美国和全球国内生产总值急剧萎缩。”。
“尽管美联储迅速将联邦基金利率降至零下限，主要经济体和发展中经济体都采取货币刺激措施，但对全球需求的打击压倒了缓解金融状况的努力。
“随着资本外逃加剧和新兴市场货币大幅贬值，美元升值。然而，由于全球贸易急剧收缩，外部账户恶化。总的来说，随着美国、欧洲和大多数新兴市场的深度衰退，全球实际国内生产总值从高峰到低谷收缩了0.3%。中国的增长大幅放缓，仅次于衰退。”
如果这种情况持续下去，穆迪预测，到2021年底，非农就业人数将比华盛顿和北京之间贸易战僵局的基线假设低793，900人，这一假设的概率为50%，比升级或降级更有可能。
下图由提供Statista这表明，美国提议的和现有的关税将远远高于其他发达经济体。
基线情景假设当前的关税将一直保持到特朗普任期结束，同时削弱国内和全球经济。穆迪表示，自贸易战开始以来，美国的国内生产总值(国产总值)已因此损失了约0.3%，就业岗位达30万个。
就国内生产总值而言，升级将使美国在2019年比基线低0.1%，在2020年(下一次选举的年份)低2%，在2021年低4%。
中美会谈正在进行中，特朗普总统坚称将达成贸易协议。迄今为止的证据表明关税的全部负担正在落在美国消费者身上尽管特朗普声称中国首当其冲。
废除北美自由贸易协定后，特朗普政府声称该协定对美国不公平，还与加拿大和墨西哥谈判了一项新的协定，名为USMCA，正等待国会批准。
奥巴马政府还在与欧盟展开关税战后，与欧盟讨论新的贸易关系。欧盟对美国进口商品进行报复。
美国贸易代表办公室没有立即回复新闻周刊的评论请求。
IF DONALD TRUMP'S CHINA TRADE WAR ESCALATES, THE U.S. COULD LOSE ALMOST 800,000 JOBS AND PLUNGE INTO A DEEP RECESSION: ECONOMISTS
Economists at Moody's Analytics estimate in a report that further escalation of President Donald Trump's trade war with China could cost the American economy hundreds of thousands of jobs and plunge it into a deep recession.
Moody's says there is a 35 percent probability that the trade war will escalate. It modeled the potential impacts of an escalating trade conflict between the U.S. and China, which has seen tariffs imposed on much of the $540 billion in Chinese goods imports.
"Given the high-stakes game of chicken, it is not difficult to imagine a darker scenario in which tariffs on all U.S.-China trade rise further and additional nontariff barriers are imposed," the Moody's report says.
"In this scenario, we assume that tariffs on all U.S.-China trade rise to 30 percent and that a series of nontariff barriers take effect.
"These include Chinese bans on U.S. technology exports, voluntary boycotts of U.S. brands, revoked market licenses for U.S. firms, a sharp devaluation of the yuan, and a threat to sell China's vast holdings of U.S. Treasuries."
The scenario also assumes U.S. retaliation, the failure of Congress to ratify the new trade deal with Mexico and Canada, a 25 percent tariff on all vehicle imports, and a substantial knock-on effect of the escalation on the global economy, damaging demand and sentiment.
"The result is a large pullback in investment that, along with price increases and ruffled consumers, causes U.S. and global GDP to contract sharply," according to the Moody's model for trade war escalation.
"Although the Fed quickly lowers the federal funds rate to the zero lower bound and both major and developing economies adopt monetary stimulus, the blow to global demand overwhelms efforts to ease financial conditions.
"The U.S. dollar appreciates as capital flight intensifies and emerging market currencies depreciate sharply. However, external accounts worsen because of the sharp contraction in global trade. All told, real global GDP contracts by 0.3 percent from peak to trough, with deep recessions in the U.S., Europe, and most emerging markets. Growth in China slows substantially and falls just short of recession."
Were this to play out, Moody's forecasts that nonfarm employment would be 793,900 lower by the end of 2021 than the baseline assumption of a trade war standoff between Washington and Beijing, which it has at a 50 percent probability and more likely than escalation or de-escalation.
The graph below, provided by Statista, shows that proposed and existing U.S. tariffs are set to become much higher than those of other advanced economies.