怀俄明州众议员利兹·切尼(Liz Cheney)在短短18个月的时间里，从众议院共和党领导人变成了党内的牛虻，因为她是前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)最响亮的共和党批评者可能会让她丢掉周二初选的工作
在2016年首次赢得选举后，切尼迅速崛起，成为众议院共和党第三号人物，据传他渴望成为议长。据FiveThirtyEight报道，她也是特朗普在国会最可靠的投票之一，几乎在所有问题上都支持他。
然而，她在去年的叛乱中对特朗普及其盟友的持续慷慨激昂的指责带来了更快的政治垮台——她被从她的领导地位和她的州党(在仍由特朗普领导的党内，她是一个越来越孤立的叛教者)中解雇。
前坎贝尔县专员、切尼的盟友马克·克里斯滕森告诉美国广播公司新闻说:“如果她像其他人一样把头埋在沙子里，她可能会连任。”。“但她真的不是那样做的人。她不是那种真正会逃避战斗的人。”
切尼以她在共和党政治中的传奇姓氏和纯正的保守派资历开始了她的众议院生涯。
在早些时候作为候选人的错误开始-在2014年寻求怀俄明州参议院席位-她在2016年赢得了怀俄明州唯一的众议院席位，同年特朗普赢得了白宫。
虽然她在竞选期间确实指出，她和特朗普在外交政策上存在分歧，但她把大部分精力放在了国内问题上，痛斥前总统巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)，甚至暗示她愿意加入强硬派的众议院自由核心小组(House Freedom Caucus)，该小组今天充满了一些对她最直言不讳的批评者。
“怀俄明州需要在国会有一个强有力的声音来领导撤销过去七年半的毁灭性政策，恢复我们的自由。我将成为那个声音，”切尼在那年赢得初选后说。“我将成为那个领袖。”
两年后，在只赢得第二个众议院任期后，她被共和党成员选为他们的会议主席，使她成为众议院中排名第三的共和党议员。
在竞选领导职位时，她推动为该党实施一个积极的信息平台。
“我们需要能够在所有平台上传播我们的信息，”她当时说。“我们需要拥有每日新闻周期。我们需要领导并赢得信息传递战。太多时候，我们发现自己在玩追赶游戏，却无法获得有用的信息，我们也没有主动出击。在通信战中不断地进行防御是失败的秘诀。我们需要作为一个团队工作，使用我们所有的信息工具来推动我们的议程。”
她的迅速崛起引起了流言蜚语，说她有一天想当议长。当她决定在2020年留在众议院，而不是竞选一个开放的参议员席位时，这种喋喋不休的声音才变得更大，许多人认为这是她的囊中之物。
根据FiveThirtyEight的分析，在她在国会的前两个任期内，切尼建立了坚定的保守记录，在近93%的时间里投票支持特朗普。虽然与当时的总统在外交政策上的分歧加剧，但切尼并没有成为他传递信息或国内议程的主要障碍。
最重要的是，她在怀俄明州的盟友回忆说，众议院有人会密切关注当地问题。
“与利兹，我们实际上会有深入的政策讨论，然后我们会一起讨论我们的方法是什么，比如说，在政策或与能源部或其他部门的事情上接近内部。不仅如此，她还会亲自跟进，然后我们再次收到她的回复。我从来没有从任何其他当选官员那里得到过这种感觉，”前县专员克里斯滕森说。
然而，去年的国会大厦袭击事件标志着切尼的一个转折点，她将强调特朗普在暴徒中的作用作为她的工作重点——几乎在一夜之间改变了她的政治命运。
她迅速并多次谴责特朗普，并在她还是会议主席时，成为投票支持弹劾他的最高级别的共和党人。她后来同意担任调查骚乱和前总统毫无根据的选举欺诈指控的众议院委员会副主席，这给两党合作增添了一层光彩。
虽然切尼曾前往怀俄明州参加较小的竞选活动，但1月6日小组高度宣传的工作淹没了她的行程——使她在华盛顿和怀俄明州都陷入了困境，在华盛顿，众议院共和党人对她专注于特朗普感到愤怒(特朗普坚称自己没有做错)，而在怀俄明州，特朗普在2020年以70%的选票获胜。
“在她参与了1月6日的事情，参与了弹劾之后……她就不知去向了。她没有和人们见面。她不关心我们，”当地选民米尔纳·伯吉斯告诉美国广播公司新闻。
当特朗普在9月份支持哈里特·哈格曼(Harriet Hageman)并把驱逐切尼作为他正在进行的报复反对他的共和党议员的运动的一部分时，切尼的政治危险暴露无遗。
“与RINO[名义上的共和党人]利兹·切尼不同，哈里特全力支持美国第一。我完全支持哈里特取代民主党的头号新闻节目提供者利兹·切尼。让美国再次伟大!”特朗普当时在一份声明中说。
切尼的盟友坚持认为她仍然是这份工作的合适人选，将她的连任竞选视为共和党方向的更广泛斗争。
“这比一个人的总统任期更重要。这是我们的宪法。这是我们的历史。这就是我们将被铭记的原因。这正是利兹所记得的，”共和党众议员兰登·布朗告诉美国广播公司新闻。“仅在我的选区就有很多人，但其他人也有同样的感受。”
切尼的竞选信息围绕这一主题，摆脱了共和党的红肉，这是其他众议院竞选活动的特点，并采用了更具前瞻性的镜头。
“这是我对你们的承诺:我将每天努力工作，确保我们这个杰出的国家长久存在。我的孩子和你们的孩子必须在一个我们拥有光荣而和平的权力交接的美国中成长。而不是暴力对抗、恐吓和谋杀。在那里我们由法律而不是由人来统治。在那里，我们由爱这个国家胜过爱自己的人领导，”切尼在她的闭幕广告中说。
然而，在一个选民可以在初选当天改变登记的州，她的竞选活动一直在宣传非共和党人可以如何支持她，这表明她的机会越来越渺茫。
怀俄明大学政治学教授吉姆·金直截了当地说:“民主党人不够多。”
2022年6月23日，众议员利兹·切尼在华盛顿举行了众议院特别委员会调查1月6日国会大厦袭击事件的听证会。
J.斯科特·阿普尔怀特/美联社
正如FiveThirtyEight所指出的，竞选中的公众投票很少，但有利于哈格曼。外界已经开始猜测切尼未来的野心在哪里，包括她的支持者，其中一些人认为失败的可能性实际上只是一个隐藏的胜利。
“这场竞选是利兹将要赢得的一场规模更大、时间更长的战争中的第一场战斗，因为这个国家的未来取决于它，”一位盟友说。“而且，不管这次选举的结果如何，她将领导一个广泛的联盟，让美国各政治派别的人站出来捍卫自由，恢复唐纳德·特朗普继续危险地破坏的基本原则。”
有传言称，切尼可能是2024年的总统候选人，他可能会以反特朗普共和党人的身份参选。虽然她坚持说她专注于自己的连任，但她没有排除未来竞选白宫的可能性。
“我不知道她是否想继续从政。她可能会去弗吉尼亚州，也许会回来，但我不知道她回来后是否会得到共和党人的支持。我不知道她会怎么做，”纳特罗纳县专员保罗·贝托格里奥说。“我觉得自己快被打败了，因为我真的很喜欢她。我很抱歉她很可能会输。这是自己造成的。”
How Liz Cheney went from rising Republican star to primary underdog after Jan. 6
Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney has gone from House GOP leadership to party gadfly in the span of just over 18 months as she stands out as the loudest Republican critic of former President Donald Trump -- whichcould cost her her job in Tuesday's primary
After first winning election in 2016, Cheney quickly rose through the ranks to become the No. 3 House Republican, with rumored aspirations toward the speakership. She was also one of Trump's most reliable votes in Congress, backing him on nearly every issue, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Yet her continued, impassioned rebukes of Trump and his allies over last year's insurrection brought an even swifter political downfall -- one that saw her booted from her leadership perch and her state party, an increasingly isolated apostate in a party still led by Trump.
"She could have cruised to another term if she had just kept her head in the sand like everybody else did," Mark Christensen, a former Campbell County commissioner and Cheney ally, told ABC News. "But she's not really the person who does that. She's not really that person who shies away from a fight."
Cheney began her House career boasting a legendary last name in Republican politics and sterling conservative credentials.
After an earlier false start as a candidate -- seeking a Wyoming Senate seat in the 2014 cycle -- she won Wyoming's only House seat in 2016, the same year Trump won the White House.
While she did note during her campaign that she and Trump differed on foreign policy, she focused much of her bid on domestic issues, lambasting former President Barack Obama and even hinting that she was open to joining the hardline House Freedom Caucus, which today is filled with some of her most vocal detractors.
"Wyoming needs a strong voice in Congress to lead the effort to undo the devastating policies of the last seven and a half years and restore our freedom. I will be that voice," Cheney said after winning her primary that year. "I will be that leader."
Two years later, after winning only her second House term, she was elected by Republican members to be their conference chair, making her the third-highest ranking GOP lawmaker in the chamber.
While campaigning for the leadership spot, she pushed for the implementation of an aggressive messaging platform for the party.
"We need to be able to drive our message across all platforms," she said at the time. "We need to own the daily news cycles. We need to lead and win the messaging wars. Too often we have found ourselves playing catch up without access to useful information, and we have not been on offense. Constantly playing defense in the battle of communications is a recipe for failure. We need to work as a team to use all our messaging tools to drive our agenda."
Her rapid rise fueled whispers she had her eye on the speakership one day. That chatter only grew when she decided to stay in the House in 2020 rather than run for an open Senate seat, which many considered to be hers for the taking.
During her first two terms in Congress, Cheney built a staunchly conservative record, voting with Trump nearly 93% of the time, according to FiveThirtyEight's analysis. And while disagreements with the then-president flared over foreign policy, Cheney did not stand out as a major roadblock to his messaging or domestic agenda.
On top of that, her allies in Wyoming recall having someone in the House who would keep a strong eye on local issues.
"With Liz, we actually would have in-depth policy discussions and then we would discuss together what our approach was going to be for, say, approaching Interior on a policy or something with Department of Energy or something else. And then not only that, she would actually do the follow up herself and then we hear back from her again, too. And I never got that from any other elected official," said Christensen, the former county commissioner.
Yet last year's Capitol attack marked an inflection point for Cheney, who made underscoring Trump's role with the mob a focal point of her work -- transforming her political fortunes nearly overnight.
She quickly and repeatedly denounced Trump and, when she was still the conference chair, became the highest-ranking Republican to vote for his impeachment. She later agreed to serve as the vice chair of the select House committee investigating the riot and the former president's unfounded election fraud claims, lending it a sheen of bipartisanship.
While Cheney has traveled to Wyoming for smaller campaign events, the highly publicized work of the Jan. 6 panel swamped her travels -- landing her in hot water both in Washington, where House Republicans were angered at her focus on Trump (who insists he did nothing wrong), and in Wyoming, a state he won with 70% of the vote in 2020.
"After she jumped in on the Jan. 6 thing, and she jumped in on the impeachment … she was nowhere to be found. She wasn't meeting with the people. She doesn't care about us," local voter Myrna Burgess told ABC News.
Cheney's political peril was put into stark relief when Trump endorsed Harriet Hageman in September and made ousting Cheney a top priority as part of his ongoing campaign of retribution against GOP lawmakers who turned against him.
"Unlike RINO [Republican in name only] Liz Cheney, Harriet is all in for America First. Harriet has my Complete and Total Endorsement in replacing the Democrats number one provider of sound bites, Liz Cheney. Make America Great Again!" Trump said in a statement at the time.
Cheney allies insist she's still the right person for the job, casting her reelection bid as a broader fight for the direction of the GOP.
"This is bigger than one person's presidency. This is our Constitution. This is our history. This is what we're going to be remembered for. And that's exactly what Liz is remembering," Republican state Rep. Landon Brown told ABC News. "And there's a lot of people in my district alone, but as well as other people out there, that they feel the exact same way."
Cheney has focused her campaign messaging around that theme, shedding the Republican red meat that characterizes other House campaigns and adopting a more forward-looking lens.
"Here's my pledge to you: I will work every day to ensure that our exceptional nation long endures. My children and your children must grow up in an America where we have honorable and peaceful transitions of power. Not violent confrontations, intimidation and thuggery. Where we are governed by laws and not by men. Where we are led by people who love this country more than themselves," Cheney said in her closing ad.
Yet in a sign of her increasingly rough chances in a state where voters can change their registration the day of the primary, her campaign has been advertising how non-Republicans can back her.
Jim King, a political science professor at the University of Wyoming, put it bluntly: "There aren't enough Democrats."
As FiveThirtyEight has noted, public polling in the race has been sparse but favors Hageman. Speculation has already begun over where Cheney's future ambitions lie beyond the House, including among her supporters, some of whom maintain that the possibility of defeat is really just a hidden victory.
"This race is the first battle in a much larger and longer war that Liz is going to win, because the future of the country depends on it," said one ally. "And, regardless of what the results in this election turn out to be, she is going to lead a broad coalition going forward of Americans across the political spectrum who will stand up for freedom and restore the foundational principles that Donald Trump continues to dangerously undermine."
Cheney has been rumored as a potential 2024 presidential candidate who could run as an anti-Trump Republican. And while she insists she's focused on her reelection, she hasn't ruled out a future White House run.
"I don't know if she'd want to stay in politics. She could probably go to Virginia and may get back in, but I don't know if she would get the Republicans support if she came back. I don't know what she'd do," said Natrona County Commissioner Paul Bertoglio. "I feel almost gut-punched because I really like her. And I am sorry that she's most likely going to lose. And that's self-inflicted."
