“既定法律”的时代已经过去不稳定的未来。这对于政治来说可能意味着非常不同的事情，取决于种族、州和比以往任何时候都大的赌注。
抛开罗伊诉韦德案并不能使任何事情自动发生，尽管各州有“触发法”,并且最高法院上周的惊人裁决引发了愤怒或宽慰的快速筹款。
塞缪尔·阿利托法官的多数意见现在即将到来的预期部分，他写道,“对这个法庭和这个国家来说”,最好的办法是“毫不拖延地正视真正的问题”但任何真正的问题都会因司法管辖区的不同而产生巨大差异。
红州正在根据触发法律(在法院裁决后将自动执行禁令)采取行动，并寻求特别立法会议来限制堕胎权利。蓝州正在扩大获取途径，并确保在其他州寻求堕胎的妇女能够找到获得适当服务的途径。
新的战斗正在战场州加入这已经成为一个分裂的政治时代的焦点。在亚利桑那州、佛罗里达州、佐治亚州、堪萨斯州、密歇根州、宾夕法尼亚州、德克萨斯州和威斯康星州，仅仅作为开始，候选人可以毫不费力地说堕胎权利将在今年秋天的投票中。
罗伊案的结束自然带来了对国家回应的需求，特别是考虑到在民主治理时期对向右政策进军的失望，以及前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)获得三个最高法院选秀权的直接结果。
但任何影响都不会是全国性的，事实上，对无数女性来说，都是非常私人的。这标志着对两党候选人的一次考验，其时机甚至让帕特的预测变得愚蠢。
与...的概要阿维里·哈珀
来自得克萨斯州共和党参议员约翰·科宁的一条推文引起了人们对其他权利的进一步关注，这些权利在罗伊案被推翻后可能处于危险之中。
作为对前总统巴拉克·奥巴马谴责最高法院关于堕胎的决定逆转了“近50年的先例”的声明的回应，科宁在推特上写道，“现在请普莱西诉弗格森/布朗诉教育委员会。”
那篇帖子引发了社交媒体的愤怒，指责参议员希望看到取缔学校种族隔离的里程碑式的决定被推翻。柯宁后来试图澄清他的评论。
“谢天谢地，一些苏格兰的先例被驳回了，”他写道，指的是布朗推翻了先前的裁决，该裁决臭名昭著地坚持了“分离但平等”的概念
不管他的意图如何，Cornyn的比较越来越担心最高法院的保守派多数会采取行动推翻其他法院判例。这是克拉伦斯·托马斯大法官在他赞同推翻罗伊案的意见中明确要求的。
托马斯列举了具体案例:Griswold诉康涅狄格州案，确立了已婚夫妇使用避孕药具的权利;劳伦斯诉得克萨斯，该案禁止将亲密的同性关系定罪;以及Obergefell诉Hodges案，该案保障了同性婚姻的权利。最高法院的自由派法官斯蒂芬·布雷耶、索尼娅·索托马约尔和埃琳娜·卡根在他们的异议中对此发出了严厉的警告。
他们写道，“没有人应该相信这一多数已经完成了它的工作。”
小费亚里沙·维尔塞马
唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)周六在伊利诺伊州门登(Mendon)举行的集会成为令人不快的头条新闻，因为最高法院(Supreme Court)推翻罗伊诉韦德案(Roe v. Wade)的政治后果。新生共和党众议员玛丽·米勒(Mary Miller)在与特朗普一起上台时表示，法院的决定是“白人生活的历史性胜利”。
米勒说:“特朗普总统，我谨代表美国所有的MAGA爱国者，感谢你昨天在最高法院为白人生命取得的历史性胜利，”他显然是指前总统任命了三名法官发表意见。
据美联社(Associated Press)报道，米勒的发言人以赛亚·沃特曼(Isaiah Wartman)称这是“文字的混淆”，并表示这位女议员打算说“生命权”。
“你可以在视频中清楚地看到...她看着她的论文，看着她的演讲，“沃特曼告诉美联社。
尽管新划分的第15国会选区的边界仍然覆盖了米勒的旧选区的大部分，但她在周二的初选中与六届现任共和党众议员罗德尼·戴维斯(Rodney Davis)进行了激烈的竞争，他选择不在第13区竞选。据报道，在重新划分选区之前，戴维斯的第13国会选区倾向于共和党8个百分点五三八分析。在新的参数下，第13选区现在覆盖了其以前的一小部分土地，并以7个百分点的优势向民主党倾斜。
在极端红色区的竞选正成为党内围绕特朗普忠诚度分裂的又一个例子——戴维斯投票成立了一个独立委员会，调查1月6日的国会大厦袭击事件，而米勒投票反对这项措施，这使她在1月份获得了特朗普的支持。米勒也得到了反税收超级政治行动委员会“增长俱乐部”的支持。
在本周末发表的一条针对米勒评论的推文中，戴维斯抨击了总统乔·拜登，同时还提到了这位女议员过去在2021年引用阿道夫·希特勒的言论。
“玛丽·米勒[星期六]的评论只是她来到国会后表现出的令人不安的行为模式的一部分。这就是为什么她使用拜登地下室策略，拒绝回答问题或举行公共活动，”戴维斯说。
今天的数字，由五点三十八分驱动
9。这是6月28日星期二晚上伊利诺伊州和纽约州的关键民主党初选人数。(我们预计周二投票的其他七个州不会进行激烈的民主党初选。)和正如FiveThirtyEight的纳撒尼尔·拉基奇所写的本周二有一系列民主党初选，包括现任与现任的对决，几场进步派与温和派的小冲突，加密货币行业的更多参与，以及民主党可以选举新的女性、非白人或LGBT候选人进入国会的多场比赛。我们明天将带着关键的共和党初选回来观看，当然，还有周二的博客直播，所以一定要跟着来。
State-by-state scramble defines the immediate post-Roe future: The Note
The era of "settled law" has given wayto an unsettled immediate future. That's likely to mean much different things for politics depending on the race, the state and the bigger-than-ever stakes.
Tossing aside Roe v. Wade doesn't make much of anything automatic, notwithstanding the states with "trigger laws" and the quick fundraising bursts fueled by either outrage or relief at the Supreme Court's bombshell decision last week.
Justice Samuel Alito's majority opinionanticipated part of what comes now,writing that the best course "for this Court and the country" would be "to face up to the real issue without further delay." But any real issues diverge dramatically depending on the jurisdiction.
Red states are acting on trigger laws (set to automatically enforce bans in the aftermath of the court's ruling) and pursuing special legislative sessions to restrict abortion rights. Blue states are expanding access and make sure women seeking abortions in other states can find their way to appropriate services.
New battlesare being joined in battleground statesthat have already been the focus of a divided and divisive political era. In Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin -- just for starters -- it's not a stretch for candidates to say that abortion rights will be on the ballot this fall.
The end of Roe naturally brings demand for national responses, particularly given frustrations with a rightward policy march during a time of Democratic governance, and the way this played out as a direct result of former President Donald Trump getting three Supreme Court picks confirmed.
But any fallout won't be national in nature -- and, indeed, will be intensely personal for countless women. It marks a test for candidates in both parties and carries timing that makes pat predictions silly to even suggest.
The RUNDOWN withAveri Harper
Backlash to a tweet from Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, has called further attention to other rights that could be in jeopardy after Roe's overturning.
In response to former President Barack Obama's statement decrying the Supreme Court's decision on abortion as reversing "nearly 50 years of precedent," Cornyn tweeted, "Now do Plessy vs Ferguson/Brown vs Board of Education."
That post set off a flood of social media outrage accusing the senator of wanting to see the landmark decision that outlawed racial segregation in schools overturned. Cornyn later attempted to clarify his comment.
"Thank goodness some SCOTUS precedents are overruled," he wrote, referring to the fact that Brown overturned the previous ruling that infamously upheld the notion of "separate but equal."
Regardless of his intent, Cornyn's comparison gets at growing fears that the conservative majority on the Supreme Court could take actions that would overturn other court precedents. It's something Justice Clarence Thomas explicitly called for in his opinion concurring with the reversal of Roe.
Thomas named specific cases: Griswold v. Connecticut, which established the right of married couples to use contraception; Lawrence v. Texas, which forbid the criminalizing of intimate same-sex relationships; and Obergefell v. Hodges, which guaranteed the right to same-sex marriage. The liberal wing of the court, Justices Stephen Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan, issued a stark warning about this in their dissent.
"No one should be confident that this majority is done with its work," they wrote.
The TIP withAlisa Wiersema
Donald Trump's Saturday rally in Mendon, Illinois, made unsavory headlines amid the political fallout over the Supreme Court's reversal of Roe v. Wade. While taking the stage with Trump, freshman Republican Rep. Mary Miller said the court's decision was a "historic victory for white life."
"President Trump, on behalf of all the MAGA patriots in America, I want to thank you for the historic victory for white life in the Supreme Court yesterday," Miller said in an apparent reference to the former president having appointed three of the justices delivering the opinion.
According to The Associated Press, Miller's spokesperson, Isaiah Wartman, called it "a mix-up of words" and said the congresswoman intended to say "right to life."
"You can clearly see in the video ... she's looking at her papers and looking at her speech," Wartmantold The AP.
Although the newly redistricted boundaries of the 15th Congressional District still cover much of Miller's old district, she is facing off in a tough primary on Tuesday with six-term incumbent GOP Rep. Rodney Davis, who chose not to run in the 13th District. Prior to redistricting, Davis' 13th Congressional District had an eight-point Republican lean, according toFiveThirtyEight's analysis. Under the new parameters, the 13th District now covers a sliver of its former land mass and leans in favor of Democrats by seven points.
The race in the ultra-red district is becoming yet another example of intraparty divisions over Trumpian loyalty -- Davis voted to create an independent commission to investigate the Jan. 6 capitol attack, while Miller voted against the measure, which landed her Trump's endorsement in January. Miller also has the backing of the Club for Growth, an anti-tax super PAC.
In a tweet addressing Miller's comments this weekend, Davis took a jab at President Joe Biden, while also raising the congresswoman's past statements that quoted Adolf Hitler in 2021.
"Mary Miller's comments [Saturday] are just another part in a disturbing pattern of behavior she's displayed since coming to Congress. This is why she uses the Biden basement strategy and refuses to answer questions or hold public events," Davis said.
NUMBER OF THE DAY, powered by FiveThirtyEight
9. That's the number of key Democratic primaries to watch in Illinois and New York on Tuesday night during the June 28 primaries. (We're not expecting competitive Democratic primaries in the other seven states voting Tuesday.) Andas FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich writes, there's a wide array of Democratic primaries this Tuesday, including an incumbent-versus-incumbent matchup, several progressive-versus-moderate skirmishes, more involvement from the cryptocurrency industry and multiple races where Democrats could elect new female, nonwhite or LGBT candidates to Congress. We'll be back tomorrow with the key GOP primaries to watch and, of course, live-blogging on Tuesday, so be sure to follow along.
