国是访问 | 专访美中贸易全国委员会会长：供应链出现“断点”，美国公司会从中国走吗？
疫情还在加速扩散。据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学实时疫情数据显示，截至北京时间4月9日上午8时，全球新冠肺炎累计确诊病例逾151万，达1513358例；累计死亡逾8.8万例；累计治愈近33万例。
美国新冠肺炎累计确诊病例逾43万，达430376例；累计死亡达1.46万例。目前，美国是全球累计确诊病例数最多的国家，死亡病例数位居第三。
疫情将给全球经济带来怎样的冲击？又将如何影响中美经贸关系？针对这些问题，美中贸易全国委员会会长克雷格·艾伦（Craig Allen）近日接受了中新社国是直通车专访。
全球GDP或将下降1.9个百分点
疫情对全球经济的影响有多大，目前仍众说纷纭。国际货币基金组织（IMF）预计今年世界经济将出现负增长，还有学者认为经济受损程度将堪比大萧条。
国是直通车：您认为疫情会引发全球性的经济衰退或者经济危机吗？如果是，这次和2008年金融危机时有什么相同点和不同点？
克雷格·艾伦：当前世界确实面临史无前例的全球性医疗卫生和经济挑战。不少国际评级机构、银行和学者都认为全球性衰退有可能发生，只不过严重程度不同。我也观察到了一些对今年全球GDP下降1.9个百分点左右的判断。和2008年金融危机时相比，当前全球各经济体之间的联系更加紧密，所有国家和民众都会切身感受新冠病毒对经济带来的挑战。因此，各国政府加强合作，协调一致作出反应非常关键。这意味着我们要展开全球合作来研发疫苗，确立支持开放和自由贸易的原则，以便利商品和医疗物资的流通。
供应链出现“断点”，跨国公司会走吗？
疫情之下，大批经济活动骤停，人流、物流跨国流动严重受阻，原本环环相扣的全球产业链、供应链出现多个“断点”。各国会不会因此促重要产业部门回流国内，跨国公司是否会调整其全球布局备受关注。
国是直通车：受疫情影响，不少国家产业链、供应链都面临“断链”风险。您认为疫情之后，缩短国际供应链会变成新趋势吗？如果是，这对现行国际产业链供应链布局会有什么影响？
克雷格·艾伦：新冠肺炎疫情暴发前，贸易紧张局势持续两年多带来的重压已经影响到了企业的全球供应链。今后企业会持续管控他们的供应链来提高效率、降低风险，这有助于为他们的客户降低成本。不同行业情况不同，所以很难一概而论。不过我确实认为，公司高管们会在董事会会议室里深入审视一下如何组织货源并更快地把商品提供给全球消费者。
国是直通车：据您掌握的情况，美国企业今后会倾向于把他们的供应链集中布局在北美区域吗？
克雷格·艾伦：对供应链这个问题，美国企业一直是以全球视角来看的。全球95%的消费者都住在美国以外的国家，因此对美国企业来说持续接近消费者非常关键。美国在其地理南北两边都有和美国贸易往来密切的邻国，而且最近达成的新版美墨加贸易协定进一步巩固了这种合作关系。这个协定里确实有鼓励企业把供应链集中布局在北美洲的内容。
但与此同时，我们必须注意到，美国企业的目标市场众多，在全球都有分布，把供应链仅仅集中在北美洲并不具有可行性。举例来说，美中贸易全国委员会很多会员企业在中国进行了大量投资，以便深耕中国市场。对这类企业来说，他们为了更快满足中国消费者的需求，会继续把供应链留在中国。
国是直通车：现在有人认为疫情是压垮经济全球化的“最后一根稻草”，您的看法是？
克雷格·艾伦：美国企业在全球化时代从国际贸易投资往来中受益良多。疫情暴发前是这样，疫情结束后也将依然如此。为应对疫情给经济造成的冲击和挑战，我们需要通过更多诸如美中第一阶段经贸协议这样的贸易协定来拓展新的商机，同时进一步完善WTO多边机制也将尤为重要。
美中应加强合作带领世界走出危机
疫情对中美贸易造成了两轮冲击。疫情在中国暴发时，中国外贸企业迟迟不能复工复产，致中美贸易大幅缩水。据中方数据，今年前两个月中美贸易总值同比下降19.6%，降幅在中国主要贸易伙伴中居首。其中，中国对美国出口下降26.5%。如今，随着美国疫情日益严峻，中国外贸企业承接的大批美国订单被取消，给中美贸易带来了新的困扰。
国是直通车：您怎么看此次疫情对中美经贸关系的影响？
克雷格·艾伦：今年年初，中美签署了第一阶段经贸协议，为两国不断升级的紧张关系按下“暂停键”，也为双方企业创造了新的机遇。这是一个具有重大历史意义的时刻。不过，中美关系存在的问题和挑战是多方面的，也非常复杂，不可能在短期内得到一揽子解决。令人遗憾的是，新冠肺炎疫情导致中美关系出现了新的紧张态势。这个时候两国政府应当做的是加强合作，引领世界走出这场人道主义危机。
国是直通车：当前形势下，要提振中美贸易，您认为当务之急是什么？
克雷格·艾伦：中美两国经济和政治体制的差异不可避免会引发一些摩擦和竞争。对世界两个最大的经济体来说，有摩擦、有竞争是可预见的，也是健康的。重要的是，双方要能够坐下来一起讨论遇到的挑战，并通过积极对话和切实行动来解决问题。
附英文采访实录：
TopNewsExpress：Do you think the coronavirus will trigger a global recession or a crisis？
Allen： The world is certainly facing unprecedented global health and economic challenges today． Many global ratings agencies， banks， and academics share views that a global recession is possible with varying levels of severity． I’ve observed predictions of global GDP declines this year ranging north and south of 1.9 percent． Peoples and economies around the world are even more interconnected today than at the time of the 2008 financial crisis． COVID-19 and the corresponding economic challenges it creates will be felt by all． That is why it’s vital for governments to work together in crafting a coordinated response． That means working together to support global R&D in finding a vaccine， and adopting principles that support open and free trade to facilitate the movement of goods and health supplies．
TopNewsExpress：The disease has exposed many companies to the risk of supply chain disruption． In this case， will shortening the international supply chain link become a new trend in the future？
Allen： The COVID-19 pandemic builds on two-plus years of already heavy trade-related stresses impacting companies’ global supply chains． Companies continually monitor their supply chains for areas to improve efficiencies and reduce risk， which can hopefully contribute to reduced costs for their customers globally． Each industry takes a different approach to supply chains and makes their calculus based on a host of different factors， so i expect there isn’t one single answer for all companies． However， I do expect that in boardrooms across the globe， executives will scrutinize deeply how they are sourcing products and getting them to customers quickly．
TopNewsExpress：As far as you know， will American companies tend to concentrate their supply chains in North America in the future？
Allen： American companies view supply chains through a global lens． 95 percent of the world’s consumers live outside the United States’ borders， so it’s critical that American companies continue to have access to them． We are fortunate to have great neighbors to the north and south with which we have really strong trade relationships， cemented by the recently concluded USMCA agreement． There are elements of USCMA that do encourage supply chains to be located in North America． At the same time， American companies serve customers in many markets， and it isn’t always feasible to have supply chains centralized only in North America． Many USCBC member companies， for example， are invested heavily in China in order to serve the China market． For them， I expect that they will still maintain supply chains in China in order to quickly serve the needs of their Chinese customers．
TopNewsExpress：Some people think that the epidemic is the last straw that overwhelms economic globalization． What do you think of the impact of the epidemic on globalization？
Allen： American companies benefit greatly from trade and investment with other countries in our globalized world． That was true before the epidemic and will continue to be true after the epidemic． Expanding commercial opportunities through international trade agreements （like the US-China Phase One Agreement） and strengthening the WTO will be as important as ever as we look to new solutions to address the economic challenges created by COVID-19．
TopNewsExpress：How do you think the epidemic will affect China-US economic and trade relations？ Will it become more tense or ease？
Allen： This year began with a momentous occasion when US and Chinese trade negotiators were able to strike a trade deal that was able to put a pause on escalating bilateral tensions， and create new opportunities for businesses in both countries． However， the challenges in our bilateral relationship are complex and multi-faceted． It is unlikely that they are all able to be resolved quickly． The COVID-19 pandemic has unfortunately resulted in new tensions at a time when our two governments should be working together to lead the world out of this humanitarian crisis．
TopNewsExpress：In your opinion， what is the top priority for saving China-US trade？
Allen： Given the complexity of our relationship， it is unlikely that one single issue can fully resolve the challenges in our trade relationship． The differences in our economic and political systems will inevitably lead to frictions and competition， which is healthy and expected for the world’s two largest economies． What is important is that we are able to discuss our challenges together， and work out our problems through dialogue and action．
