俄罗斯国防部副部长警告外国大使，俄罗斯与其邻国乌克兰之间存在“高风险”的冲突。一天前，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京威胁称，如果西方不解决他所表达的担忧，俄罗斯将采取“多样化”的军事和技术应对措施。

来自莫斯科的这些最新消息让美国和其他西方官员感到紧张，担心普京会对乌克兰发动袭击，尽管美国总统乔·拜登警告说，这样做会带来巨大的惩罚。

拜登政府一再呼吁与俄罗斯开展外交，以缓和乌克兰东部省份的紧张局势，并结束这场战争。近八年前，俄罗斯军队在一场持续酝酿并夺走生命的冲突中武装了分离主义武装。

但俄罗斯对安全保障的要求，包括禁止乌克兰加入北约，被美国官员称为“不可接受”——可能是有目的的，这样俄罗斯以后就可以声称给了外交一次机会。

俄罗斯表示没有入侵计划，但要求美国、北约和乌克兰认真对待其关切。

“我们提出这些建议，并不仅仅是为了看到它们在外交进程中受阻，而是为了达成一个谈判达成的外交结果，这个结果将在具有法律约束力的文件中得到确定。我们将瞄准这一点，”普京周日表示。

他的国防部副部长亚历山大·福明周一再次指责北约派遣军舰和侦察机支援乌克兰，挑起冲突。这与他的上司、国防部长谢尔盖·绍伊古上周的一份声明相呼应。绍伊古声称，乌克兰在美国雇佣军的帮助下，正准备发动化学武器袭击。

福明在一次有14个北约国家特使参加的会议上说:“联盟最近转而采取直接挑衅的做法，同时很有可能演变成武装对抗。

美国官员和分析人士警告说，这是入侵的一种虚假借口，俄罗斯可能会借此为入侵辩护。

瓦迪姆·萨维茨基/塔斯社通过ZUMA出版社

俄罗斯国防部长谢尔盖·绍伊古(中)、副国防部长亚历山大·福明(左)和德米特里·什..

特朗普政府五角大楼高级官员、美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)国家安全分析师米克·马尔罗伊(Mick Mulroy)表示:“俄罗斯表面上对自己制造的危机感到愤怒。“是俄罗斯在边境部署了大约17.5万军队，并威胁说，如果其要求得不到满足，将再次入侵——‘照我说的做，否则我将违反所有国际准则，攻击并占领一个主权国家。’"

据估计，俄罗斯在乌克兰附近的驻军人数从6万到10万以上，一份泄露的美国情报文件警告称，俄罗斯可能准备迅速部署多达17.5万人。美国官员列举了这些部队调动，以及俄罗斯对乌克兰的宣传攻击(他们说这种攻击增加了10倍)和好战言论，作为可能入侵的证据。

但是外交可以避免战争。据美国官员称，美国和俄罗斯已同意在1月份举行会谈，以解决双方的关切，此外还将举行北约和俄罗斯之间的会谈以及欧洲安全与合作组织的会议。OSCE是一个重要的安全论坛，多年来在乌克兰东部部署了一个战争监视器，因为这场冲突已经夺去了大约14000人的生命。

在上周协调了乌克兰政府和俄罗斯控制的分裂分子之间的一次会议后，OSCE周四宣布，双方显示出“完全遵守”2020年7月停火协议的“坚定决心”。拜登的国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文和国务院宣布了这一声明，他们的发言人说，“我们希望由此产生的和平将为缓和地区紧张局势创造必要的外交空间，并为进一步讨论提供积极的气氛。”

没有“结果和平”三名乌克兰士兵在周日持续数小时的炮击中受伤。根据OSCE的数据，本月违反停火的次数是去年12月的五倍。

但据俄罗斯官方通讯社国际文传电讯社(Interfax news agency)报道，有一些值得注意的俄罗斯军队调动，该社报道称，在军事演习后，超过1万名士兵从乌克兰边境附近撤回。克里姆林宫周一还表示，除了美国之外，就其安全关切与北约直接接触是有意义的

这是否是希望战争可以避免的信号还不清楚。美国官员曾表示，目前仍不清楚普京是否决定入侵，该地区仍有数万名士兵，包括2014年俄罗斯入侵并占领的乌克兰半岛克里米亚。

'High risk' of armed conflict over Ukraine, Russian defense ministry warns

Russia's deputy defense minister warned foreign ambassadors of a "high risk" of conflict between the country and its neighbor Ukraine -- one day after President Vladimir Putin threatened "diverse" military and technical responses if the West doesn't address his stated concerns.

These latest messages from Moscow are the kind that have had U.S. and other western officials on edge that Putin will launch an assault on Ukraine, even after President Joe Biden warned him doing so would bring massive penalties.

The Biden administration has repeatedly called for diplomacy with Russia to de-escalate tensions and end the war in Ukraine's eastern provinces, nearly eight years after Russian troops armed separatist forces in a conflict that continues to simmer and claim lives.

But Russia's demands for security guarantees, including that Ukraine be barred from joining NATO, have been called "unacceptable" by U.S. officials -- possibly purposefully so, so that Russia can later claim to have given diplomacy a shot.

Russia has said it has no plans to invade but demanded the U.S., NATO, and Ukraine take seriously its concerns.

"We didn't make the proposals just to see them blocked in terms of the diplomatic process, but for the purpose of reaching a negotiated diplomatic result that would be fixed in legally binding documents. We will aim at this," Putin said Sunday.

His Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin blamed NATO again Monday for provoking conflict by sending warships and reconnaissance planes to back Ukraine. That echoes a statement last week by his boss, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who claimed Ukraine, with U.S. mercenary help, is preparing a chemical weapons attack.

"The alliance has recently switched to the practice of direct provocations accompanied by the high risk of turning into armed confrontation," Fomin said during a meeting that included envoys from 14 NATO countries.

It's the kind of false pretext for an invasion that U.S. officials and analysts have warned Russia may create to justify an invasion.

"Russia is ostensibly outraged by a crisis of their own making," said Mick Mulroy, a senior Trump administration Pentagon official and ABC News national security analyst. "It was Russia that put around 175,000 troops on the border and threatened to invade again if its demands were not met -- 'Do what I ask, or I will attack and occupy a sovereign country against all international norms.'"

The estimated number of Russian troops near Ukraine have ranged from 60,000 to over 100,000, with one leaked U.S. intelligence document warning Russia could be prepared to swiftly deploy as many as 175,000. U.S. officials have cited those troop movements, along with Russian propaganda attacks on Ukraine, which they say have increased tenfold, and bellicose rhetoric as evidence of a possible invasion.

But diplomacy could stave off war. The U.S. and Russia have agreed to hold talks in January to address each side's concerns, along with talks between NATO and Russia and meetings at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, according to U.S. officials. The OSCE, a key security forum, has deployed a war monitor in eastern Ukraine for years as the conflict has taken some 14,000 lives.

After coordinating a meeting between the Ukrainian government and the Russian-controlled separatists last week, the OSCE declared Thursday that both sides showed a "strong determination to fully adhere" to a July 2020 ceasefire agreement. The statement was heralded by Biden's National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and the State Department, whose spokesperson said, "We hope the resultant peace will create the diplomatic space necessary to de-escalate regional tensions and provide a positive atmosphere for further discussion."

There has been no "resultant peace." Three Ukrainian soldiers were wounded in shelling that last for hours on Sunday. There had been five times more ceasefire violations this month than last December, according to the OSCE.

But there was some notable Russian troop movements, according to state-run Interfax news agency, which reported that more than 10,000 troops pulled back from near Ukraine's borders after military drills. The Kremlin also said Monday that it made sense to engage NATO directly about its security concerns, in addition to the U.S.

Whether that is yet a sign for hope that war can be avoided is unclear. U.S. officials have said it's still unknown whether Putin has decided to invade, with tens of thousands of troops still in the area, including in Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula Russia invaded and seized in 2014.