最近几个月,美国人很难避免关于“缩减”的头条新闻和声明,因为经济学家和政策制定者正在辩论如何在美国疫情衰退时最好地支持经济。
美联储周三在一份政策声明中表示,将大幅削减其大规模债券购买计划,这是疫情时代的一项举措,旨在向金融市场注入现金,并在卫生危机期间提振经济。
在当前经济政策的背景下,美联储放缓资产购买的这一持续过程被称为“缩减”简单来说,它指的是在疫情鼎盛时期启动的经济刺激政策逐渐放缓,当时企业倒闭,失业率飙升。
咨询公司克罗尔研究所(Kroll Institute)全球首席经济学家、哈佛肯尼迪学院(Harvard Kennedy School)高级研究员梅根·格林(Megan Greene)对美国广播公司(ABC News)表示:“自2020年3月以来,美联储一直在以一定的速度购买债券——债券和抵押贷款支持证券,他们将放缓购买这些资产的速度,直到不再购买为止。
周三,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在美联储会议后的新闻发布会上说,“我们现在离完成缩减基本上还有两次会议。”
加快缩减规模的举措出台之际,通胀给美联储使用工具支持经济的能力带来了新的压力。经济学家已经将通胀上升归因于与大流行相关的失衡随着全球供应链受阻和劳动力短缺阻碍了供应跟上激增需求的能力,推高了价格。
凯文·迪特施/路透社,文件
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在参议院银行、住房和城市委员会作证...
在危机最严重的时候,美联储的疫情政策有助于刺激经济和消费者需求,但美国央行没有货币工具来缓解供应紧张。
鲍威尔周三表示:“我们正在更快地逐步停止购买,因为随着通胀压力的上升和劳动力市场的迅速走强,经济不再需要越来越多的政策支持。“此外,更快地完成我们的资产购买将更好地定位政策,以应对各种可能的经济结果。”
除了加倍缩减规模,美联储还暗示可能加息2022年利率最高可达三倍。
Tapering, explained: Federal Reserve to reel back massive bond-buying program
It's been hard for Americans to avoid headlines and statements about "tapering" in recent months, as economists and policymakers debate how to best support the economy while the pandemic ebbs in the U.S.
The Federal Reserve said in a policy statement Wednesday that it was greatly reducing its massive bond-buying program, a pandemic-era initiative that flushed cash into financial markets and aimed to buoy the economy during the health crisis.
In the context of current economic policies, this ongoing process of slowing down asset purchases by the Fed is referred to as "tapering." Simplistically, it refers to the gradual slowdown of the economic stimulus policy that was initiated at the height of the pandemic, when businesses shuttered and unemployment skyrocketed.
"The Fed has been buying up bonds since March of 2020 -- bonds and mortgage-backed securities -- at a certain rate, and they're going to slow the rate at which they're buying up these assets until they're not buying them anymore," Megan Greene, global chief economist at the advisory firm Kroll Institute and a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School, told ABC News.
On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said during his post Fed-meeting news conference, "We're basically two meetings away now from from finishing the taper."
The move to speed up tapering comes as inflation has thrown a new wrench in the Fed's ability to use its tools to support the economy. Economists haveattributed the rising inflation to pandemic-related imbalancesas global supply chain snags and labor shortages hobble the ability of supply to keep up with surging demand, pushing up prices.
The Fed's pandemic policies helped stimulate the economy and consumer demand during the height of the crisis, but the U.S. central bank does not have monetary tools to ease the supply constraints.
"We are phasing out our purchases more rapidly because with elevated inflation pressures and a rapidly strengthening labor market, the economy no longer needs increasing amounts of policy support," Powell said Wednesday. "In addition, a quicker conclusion of our asset purchases will better position policy to address the full range of plausible economic outcomes."
In addition to doubling the pace of its tapering, the Fed also signaled that it could hikeinterest rates up to three times in 2022.