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伊朗重返谈判,对拜登来说,核危机仍在逼近

2021-11-30 13:06   美国新闻网   - 

伊朗周一重返核项目谈判——这是五个多月来的首次会议,伊朗新的强硬政府现已掌权。

其首席谈判代表在闭门会议中表现出乐观,因为德黑兰要求在前总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)将美国从协议中撤出后,首先解决其对美国继续制裁的担忧。

但美国和该协议的欧洲签署国警告称,在拖延了几个月后,伊朗正面临最后一次机会来恢复2015年的协议,该协议对其核计划施加了限制,以换取国际制裁的缓解。

一位负责协调美国和伊朗之间间接会谈的欧盟高级外交官随后表达了一些谨慎的乐观情绪——以及很大的紧迫性。

欧盟高级外交官恩里克·莫拉(Enrique Mora)使用了核协议正式名称的首字母缩写——“联合全面行动计划”,他说:“所有代表团显然都有意愿听取新团队带来的伊朗立场,伊朗代表团显然有意愿开展认真的工作,让《联合全面行动计划》起死回生。

来自伊朗、俄罗斯、中国、英国、法国和德国的代表团在奥地利维也纳会面后,莫拉补充说:“我对我们在未来几周可以做重要的事情感到乐观。

美国及其欧洲盟友是否愿意等待数周是一个悬而未决的问题,尤其是伊朗新总统易卜拉欣·赖西(Ebrahim Raisi)自6月赢得大选以来,一直推迟恢复谈判。易卜拉欣·赖西是一名与最高领袖哈梅内伊关系密切的保守派神职人员。

英国外交大臣利兹·特拉斯周一表示:“这些会谈是伊朗人最后一次来到谈判桌前就《联合行动计划》达成一致的机会。“如果这种情况没有发生,我们将考虑所有选项。”

以色列几乎没有耐心,其国防部长周一警告称,伊朗正在“奔向核武器”

以色列国防部长本尼·甘茨说,以色列官员与美国和其他盟友分享的情报显示,伊朗正接近拥有核武器。

自特朗普退出以来,伊朗越来越多地采取违反协议的步骤,包括进行更多铀浓缩、将铀浓缩到更高水平、使用更先进的离心机和更多离心机,以及浓缩铀金属。联合国核监督机构——国际原子能机构(IAEA)本月报告称,伊朗已将39磅铀浓缩至60%,距离武器级的90%仅一小步。

根据核协议,伊朗的铀浓缩上限为3.67%,为期15年。

美国国务院拒绝就伊朗可能正在向90%浓缩水平迈进的报道置评,但副发言人贾利娜·波特(Jalina Porter)告诉记者,“显然这将是一种挑衅行为,我只想强调,我们已经明确表示,伊朗持续的核升级是非建设性的,也不符合双方恢复遵守《联合行动计划》的目标。”

但在恢复谈判之前,伊朗使用了更尖锐的语言拒绝了“相互遵守”的想法——越来越多地辩称,美国必须首先采取行动,因为早在2018年,特朗普就首次退出了该协议。

伊朗首席谈判代表阿里·巴盖里·卡尼周日在一篇社论中写道:“相互遵守的原则不能成为谈判的适当基础,因为是美国政府单方面退出了协议。”他呼吁建立一个“明确和透明的机制,以确保取消制裁”,并要求美国“对违反协议的行为进行赔偿,其中包括取消《联合行动纲领》后的所有制裁。”

拜登政府已经表示不会先取消制裁,而美国制裁伊朗的补偿想法在华盛顿政治上是有毒的。

不清楚这些要求是只是伊朗坐下来之前的姿态,还是红线。在周一的会议中,巴格里声称取得了“相当大的成就”,称协议的其余各方同意首先解决美国的制裁问题。但这并不意味着他们同意在伊朗自己的违规行为得到解决之前,需要解除这些制裁。莫拉说,工作级别的讨论将于周二讨论美国的制裁,周三讨论伊朗的核计划。

美国国务院尚未提供伊朗特使罗布·马利在维也纳会晤的内容,此前六轮会谈也在维也纳举行。

除了莫拉的乐观之外,俄罗斯特使米哈伊尔·乌里扬诺夫表示,会谈“相当成功地开始了”,并就“进一步立即采取的步骤”达成了一致,但没有具体说明具体步骤。

PHOTO: Iran's Chief Negotiator for the Nuclear Agreement, Ali Bagheri Kani, leaves the Joint Commission Iran talks meeting in Vienna, Nov. 29, 2021.

克里斯蒂安·布鲁纳/环保局,通过Shutterstock

伊朗核协议首席谈判代表阿里·巴盖里·卡尼离开联合委员会...

任何乐观情绪首先都会遭遇以色列的可怕警告,以色列总理纳夫塔里·班尼特曾公开反对恢复核协议。

“伊朗不应该因为他们的残暴而得到任何回报、任何讨价还价、任何制裁减免。我呼吁我们在世界各地的盟友:不要屈服于伊朗的核讹诈,”班尼特周一表示。

马利上周告诉NPR,美国和以色列不同意这项协议,但确实同意需要防止伊朗获得核武器:“我们不会等着看他们走得这么近,”他说,但美国希望“这可以通过外交途径解决,而且应该如此。”

有警告称,伊朗可能会通过延长谈判来拖延时间,马利补充说,如果该国走向核弹,美国不会“袖手旁观”。

但美国和欧洲盟友对国际原子能机构(IAEA)手下留情,上周再次拒绝谴责伊朗不仅违反了协议,还越来越多地阻挠IAEA的工作。

国际原子能机构总干事拉斐尔·格罗西上周三对联合国机构表示,伊朗禁止核查人员进入某些场所,用侵入性的安全搜查骚扰核查人员,并且未能解释为何在三个未申报的地点仍发现铀。

格罗西上周访问了德黑兰,这是他在赖西政府领导下的首次访问,但他周三告诉记者,他没有就解决这些问题达成协议。他警告称,此前与伊朗达成的让国际社会关注其已申报核设施的临时协议正在破裂。伊朗同意保留国际原子能机构的摄像机和其他监控设备,并在达成协议后将录像带移交给国际原子能机构。格罗西说,这些设备需要维修,以“保证知识的连续性”,但伊朗迄今阻止了国际原子能机构的核查人员。

他在新闻发布会上表示:“这么长一段时间,我们无法进入,不知道是否有正在进行的运营活动,这本身就阻止了我继续说我对正在发生的事情有所了解。“我们必须达成协议。我们必须这样做。”

Iran returns to negotiations, with a nuclear crisis still looming large for Biden

Iran returned to negotiations over its nuclear program on Monday -- meeting for the first time in over five months, with the country's new hard-line government now in control.

Its chief negotiator emerged from closed doors bullish, as Tehran demands its concerns about continued U.S. sanctions be addressed first after former President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the deal.

But the U.S. and the deal's European signatories are warning that after months of stalling, Iran is facing its last opportunity to revive the 2015 deal that placed constraints on its nuclear program in exchange for international sanctions relief.

A top European Union diplomat who is coordinating the indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran expressed some guarded optimism afterward -- and much urgency.

"There is clearly a will on all the delegations to listen to the Iranian positions brought by the new team, and there is clearly a will of the Iranian delegation to engage in serious work to bring JCPOA back to life," said Enrique Mora, the senior EU diplomat, using an acronym for the nuclear deal's formal name -- the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

"I feel positive that we can be doing important things for the next weeks to come," Mora added after delegations from Iran, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France and Germany met in Vienna, Austria.

Whether or not the U.S. and its European allies are willing to wait weeks is an open question -- especially since Ebrahim Raisi, Iran's new president who is a conservative cleric close to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has delayed the resumption of talks since he won election in June.

"These talks are the last opportunity for the Iranians to come to the table and agree the JCPOA," British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said Monday. "We will look at all options if that doesn't happen."

Patience is all but out in Israel, whose defense minister warned Monday that Iran is "dashing towards a nuclear weapon."

Israeli officials shared intelligence with the U.S. and other allies showing that Iran is nearing a nuclear weapon, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz said.

Since Trump's exit, Iran has increasingly taken steps in violation of the deal, including by enriching more uranium, enriching uranium to higher levels, using more advanced centrifuges and more of them, and enriching uranium metal. The United Nation's nuclear watchdog -- the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA -- reported this month that Iran has enriched 39 pounds of uranium to 60%, which is a short technical step from weapons-grade 90%.

Under the nuclear deal, Iran's enrichment was capped at 3.67% for 15 years.

The State Department declined to comment on reports that Iran may be moving toward 90% enrichment levels, but deputy spokesperson Jalina Porter told reporters that "obviously would be a provocative act, and I'll just underscore that we've made clear that Iran's continued nuclear escalations are unconstructive and they're also inconsistent with what's stated in the goal of returning to a mutual compliance with the JCPOA."

But ahead of talks resuming, Iran has used sharper language rejecting the idea of "mutual compliance" -- increasingly arguing that the U.S. must act first because it was Trump that first exited the deal back in 2018.

"The principle of 'mutual compliance' cannot form a proper base for negotiations since it was the U.S. government which unilaterally left the deal," Iran's chief negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, wrote in an editorial Sunday, calling for a "clear and transparent mechanism to ensure that sanctions will be removed" and U.S. "compensation for the violation of the deal, which includes the removal of all post-JCPOA sanctions."

The Biden administration has said it will not lift sanctions first, and the idea of compensating Iran for U.S. sanctions is politically toxic in Washington.

It's unclear if those demands are just Iran posturing before sitting down, or if those are red lines. Out of Monday's meetings, Bagheri claimed a "considerable achievement" by saying the remaining parties to the deal agreed to address U.S. sanctions first. But that doesn't mean they agreed those sanctions need to be lifted before Iran's own non-compliance is addressed. The working-level discussions will address U.S. sanctions on Tuesday and Iran's nuclear program Wednesday, according to Mora.

The State Department has not yet provided a readout from special envoy for Iran Rob Malley's meetings in Vienna, where the previous six rounds of talks were held as well.

Beyond Mora's optimism, Russia's envoy Mikhail Ulyanov said the talks "started quite successfully" and reached agreement on "further immediate steps," without specifying what they were.

Any optimism has run face first into dire warnings from Israel, whose Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has vocally opposed the restoration of the nuclear deal.

"Iran deserves no rewards, no bargain deals, and no sanctions relief in return for their brutality. I call upon our allies around the world: Do not give in to Iran's nuclear blackmail," Bennett said Monday.

Malley told NPR last week the U.S. and Israel don't agree on the deal, but do agree on the need to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon: "We're not going to wait and see them get so close," he said, but the U.S. hopes "that this could be resolved diplomatically, and it should be."

Amid warnings that Iran could stall by prolonging these talks, Malley added the U.S. will not "sit idly by" if the country moves toward a nuclear bomb.

But the U.S. and European allies have pulled their punches at the IAEA, declining again last week to censure Iran for not just its violations of the deal but its growing obstruction of the IAEA's work.

Iran has barred inspectors from accessing certain sites, harassed inspectors with invasive security searches and failed to explain still the detected presence of uranium at three undeclared locations, IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi told the U.N. body last Wednesday.

Grossi visited Tehran last week -- his first trip under the Raisi government -- but he did not reach a deal to address these issues, he told reporters Wednesday. A previous ad-hoc arrangement with Iran to keep international eyes at its declared nuclear sites is coming apart, he warned. Iran agreed to keep IAEA cameras and other monitoring equipment in place and turn the tapes over to the agency when a deal was reached. That equipment needs servicing to "guarantee continuity of knowledge," Grossi said, but Iran has blocked IAEA inspectors so far.

"Such a long period of time without us getting access, knowing whether there are operational activities ongoing, is something in itself that would prevent me from continuing to say I have an idea of what's going on," he said at a press conference. "We must reach an agreement. We must do it."

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