俄亥俄州哥伦布市——这应该是一个胜利的时刻乔·拜登。

民主党总统刚刚签署了几代人以来最重要的基础设施一揽子计划，使之成为法律。正如他在去年的竞选中所承诺的那样，他通过将民主党人和共和党人聚集在一起做到了这一点。但是，当拜登上周抵达新罕布什尔州，在一座摇摇欲坠的桥脚下推动1万亿美元的一揽子计划时，并不是他所有的贵宾都有心情庆祝。

当被问及拜登的政治地位时，出席仪式的拜登长期支持者、前州众议院议长史蒂夫·舒尔特勒夫(Steve Shurtleff)对美联社表示:“民主党人感到担忧。“我担心再过几年，当人们真正开始准备并开始去新罕布什尔州旅行时，我们可能会在哪里。”

舒尔特勒夫公开表示，越来越多的民主党人几个月来一直在窃窃私语:拜登在就任总统不到一年的时间里，政治地位非常薄弱，如果他再次竞选，他可能无法在2024年赢得连任。这种由焦虑引发的室内游戏在华盛顿的政治阶层中很常见，但这种游戏已经蔓延到了将在下届总统选举中发挥核心作用的州和选区。

副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯面临着她自己的政治难题，民调显示她可能不如不受欢迎的老板受欢迎。哈里斯是一位充满活力的领导人，她通过成为第一位黑人女性和第一位南亚血统的人进入她的办公室而创造了历史，但拜登白宫几乎没有给她机会发光。

周五，她在俄亥俄州首府发表了第一次个人演讲，宣传新的基础设施法，在拜登在华盛顿发布白宫一年一度的火鸡赦免令的同时，她向一个基本上空无一人的工会大厅发表了讲话，大厅里基本上没有政要。

“在美国，我们有勇气看到危机之外的东西——相信未来和我们想象的未来是可能的——然后，去建设它，”哈里斯在哥伦布市礼貌的掌声中说道。

至少就目前而言，没有什么迹象表明这项立法将迅速提高民主党的政治地位。这项立法将加强每个州的基础设施，并有可能创造数十万个就业机会。

随着拜登的努力，关于拜登不寻求连任的候选人名单的猜测越来越多，尽管这位79岁的总统已经公开和私下表示他会寻求连任。当然，这份名单由哈里斯领导，但也包括其他2020年总统候选人，如交通部长皮特·布蒂吉格和新泽西州参议员科里·布克。就在上周，布克宣布计划参加下个月在新罕布什尔州举行的一场党内筹款活动，该州历来是美国第一次总统初选的举办地。

布克的团队试图压制关于他将自己定位于2024年竞选的传言，盟友们表示，他与哈里斯关系非常密切，如果拜登退休，他不会挑战她。然而，在新一届总统任期内，仅仅存在这样的对话是不寻常的。

当拜登——或另一位民主党人——在2024年总统选举中领导该党时，现在沸腾的沮丧可能早已被遗忘。事实是，没有人知道拜登或哈里斯明年的地位会如何，更不用说三年后了。虽然拜登的支持率徘徊在40%的低点，但在他担任总统的同时，他们比唐纳德·特朗普的支持率还要高。

巴拉克·奥巴马在他总统任期的第一年结束时也面临逆风。他的政党将在2010年中期选举中遭受历史性的损失。但奥巴马及时康复，赢得了第二个任期。比尔·克林顿同样克服了挫折，包括1994年毁灭性的中期选举，于1996年赢得连任。

曾在奥巴马白宫工作的民主党战略家比尔·伯顿(Bill Burton)指出，任何数量的因素都可能彻底颠覆政治气候，比如特朗普的再次出现、最高法院终止或大幅限制堕胎权的决定、经济好转以及疫情的终结。

“人们一致认为民主党彻底完蛋了。伯顿说:“正是这些人给我们带来了希拉里·克林顿总统。“也许事情并没有整个喋喋不休的阶层想象的那么糟糕。”

考虑到拜登目前的挣扎，白宫正在努力平息关于他可能不会在2024年寻求连任的猜测。

注意到拜登已经宣布有意公开和私下竞选，他的助手说，民主党全国委员会和拜登在白宫的政治团队正在积极推进他将寻求第二个任期的假设。

他们认为，随着选民消化新的基础设施法和目前正在国会通过的2万亿美元社会支出和气候法案，拜登的地位将得到改善。民主党全国委员会及其盟友已经在集中大量资源，在2022年中期选举前推销民主党在关键州的成就——亚利桑那州、佐治亚州、内华达州、新罕布什尔州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州等州也将成为2024年总统选举的主要战场。

尽管他们很乐观，但随着新的领导团队学会合作，白宫内部的紧张局势是真实存在的。

哈里斯的盟友尤其感到沮丧的是，拜登似乎将副总统限制在了一个低调的角色上，他的政策组合很困难——由投票权和移民问题主导。

上周五，凯尔·里顿豪斯在俄亥俄州与记者一起旅行时，被判去年威斯康星州基诺沙致命枪击案的所有罪名不成立，这成为围绕枪支、私刑主义和种族不公正的辩论的一个热点。但她不得不等到拜登处理完这个案子后，才能发表意见，她说“判决确实说明了一切。”

当她发表关于基础设施法的演讲时，几乎没有民主党热情的迹象。

被邀请的客人几乎占了当地工会大厅的四分之一。俄亥俄州的民主党高层几乎没有人出席这次活动，包括参议员谢罗德·布朗或高调竞选州长的民主党人。代表哈里斯发言地区的众议员乔伊斯·贝蒂是唯一出席的国会议员。

“由于我们的共同努力，美国正在向前迈进，”哈里斯宣称，并解释说，基础设施法将“做出最重大的投资，在70年内修复我们的道路和桥梁。”

但就像在新罕布什尔州一样，白宫的信息因对拜登总统任期的失望而变得模糊。

俄亥俄州民主党人尼娜·特纳曾担任伯尼·桑德斯2020年总统竞选的联合主席，她说，自拜登取代特朗普以来，穷人和中产阶级“几乎没有变化”。她说，基础设施法案并没有改变这一点，她抨击拜登的社会支出计划是“重建得越少越好”

“问题变成了，‘为什么我要帮助你掌握权力，而你现在拥有的权力却没有代表我使用?’“特纳这样评价拜登。”这叫做疯狂——要求我投票给你，要求黑人社区在2022年或2024年支持你，而你在2021年什么都不做。"

事实上，参加白宫基础设施法案签署仪式的民权活动家阿尔·夏普顿牧师警告说，拜登正与黑人选民一起接近“红区”。

在基础设施活动结束时，夏普顿说，他敦促拜登利用他的讲坛，更加努力地进行警务改革，保护在共和党领导的州受到攻击的投票权。

“从现在到一月底，他们必须加快速度，否则他们会遇到真正的问题，”夏普顿说。

Biden's political standing fuels Democratic worry about 2024

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- It was supposed to be a moment of triumph forJoe Biden.

The Democratic president had just signed into law the most significant infrastructure package in generations. And he had done it by bringing Democrats and Republicans together, just as he promised during last year's campaign. But when Biden arrived in New Hampshire last week to promote the $1 trillion package at the foot of a crumbling bridge, not all of his VIP guests were in the mood to celebrate.

“Democrats are concerned,” former state House Speaker Steve Shurtleff, a longtime Biden supporter who attended the ceremony, told The Associated Press when asked about Biden’s political standing. “I’m concerned about where we may be in another couple of years when people really start to gear up and start making trips to New Hampshire.”

Shurtleff was openly saying what a growing number of Democrats have been whispering for months: Biden's political standing is so weak less than a year into his presidency that he may not be able to win reelection in 2024 if he were to run again. Such anxiety-fueled parlor games are common among Washington's political class, but this one has spread to the states and constituencies that will play a central role in the next presidential election.

Vice President Kamala Harris is facing her own political conundrum with polls suggesting she may be less popular than her unpopular boss. A dynamic leader who made history by becoming the first Black woman and first person of South Asian descent to step into her office, Harris has been given few opportunities by the Biden White House to shine.

She delivered her first solo speech to promote the new infrastructure law on Friday in Ohio's capital city, addressing a mostly empty union hall largely absent of political dignitaries at roughly the same time Biden was issuing the White House's annual turkey pardon in Washington.

“In America, we have the courage to see beyond the crisis — to believe that the future and a future we imagine is possible — and then, to build it,” Harris said to a smattering of polite applause in Columbus.

At least for now, there's little to suggest the legislation, which will strengthen infrastructure in every state and potentially create hundreds of thousands of jobs, will quickly improve Democrats' political standing.

As Biden struggles, speculation has intensified about the short list of would-be successors should Biden not seek reelection, although the 79-year-old president has said publicly and privately that he will. The list is led by Harris, of course, but includes other 2020 presidential candidates such as Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker. Just last week, Booker announced plans to appear at a party fundraiser next month in New Hampshire, which traditionally hosts the nation's first presidential primary election.

Booker's team sought to tamp down chatter that he was positioning himself to run in 2024, and allies say he is very close to Harris and would not challenge her in the event Biden retires. Still, the mere existence of such conversations so soon into a new presidency is unusual.

The frustrations boiling over now may be long forgotten by the time Biden — or another Democrat — leads the party in the 2024 presidential election. The truth is, no one knows what the standing of Biden or Harris will be next year, never mind in three years. While Biden's approval ratings are hovering in the low 40s, they are better than Donald Trump's at the same time of his presidency.

Barack Obama also faced headwinds at the end of the first year of his presidency. His party would go on to suffer historic losses in the 2010 midterm elections. But Obama recovered in time to win a second term. Bill Clinton similarly overcame setbacks, including a devastating midterm cycle in 1994, to win reelection in 1996.

Democratic strategist Bill Burton, who worked in the Obama White House, noted that any number of factors could completely upend the political climate, such as Trump's reemergence, a Supreme Court decision ending or dramatically limiting abortion rights, an improving economy and the end of the pandemic.

“There’s such a unanimity around the idea that Democrats are completely doomed. These are the same people who brought us President Hillary Clinton,” Burton said. “Maybe things aren’t as bad as the entire chattering class seems to think they are.”

The White House is working to quash speculation that Biden may not seek reelection in 2024 given his current struggles.

Noting that Biden has declared his intent to run publicly and privately, his aides say the Democratic National Committee and Biden's political team inside the White House are actively moving forward with the assumption he will seek a second term.

They believe Biden's position will improve as voters digest the new infrastructure law and the $2 trillion social spending and climate bill currently moving through Congress. Already, the DNC and its allies are focusing significant resources on selling the Democrats' accomplishments in key states before the 2022 midterm elections — states such as Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin that will also be top battlegrounds in the 2024 presidential election.

Despite their optimism, tensions inside the White House are real as the new leadership team learns to work together.

Harris' allies are especially frustrated that Biden seems to have limited the vice president to a low-profile role with a difficult policy portfolio — led by voting rights and immigration.

She was traveling with reporters in Ohio on Friday when Kyle Rittenhouse was acquitted of all charges in last year's deadly shootings in Kenosha, Wisconsin, that became a flashpoint in the debate over guns, vigilantism and racial injustice. But she had to wait until Biden had addressed the case before she could weigh in, saying “the verdict really speaks for itself.”

And when she delivered her speech on the infrastructure law, there was little sign of Democratic enthusiasm.

The crowd of invited guests barely filled one-quarter of a local union hall. Almost none of Ohio's top Democrats attended the event, including Sen. Sherrod Brown or the high-profile Democrats running for governor. Rep. Joyce Beatty, who represents the district where Harris spoke, was the only member of Congress in attendance.

“Because of our work together, America is moving forward,” Harris declared, explaining that the infrastructure law would "make the most significant investment to fix our road and bridges in 70 years.”

But just as in New Hampshire, the White House's message was clouded by frustration over Biden's presidency.

Ohio Democrat Nina Turner, who served as co-chair of Bernie Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign, said “very little has changed” for the poor and middle-class since Biden replaced Trump. The infrastructure bill does not change that, she said, and she blasted Biden's social spending package as “build back less better.”

“The question becomes, ‘Why am I helping you to hold to power, when the power you have right now you’re not using on my behalf?’” Turner said of Biden. “That’s called insanity — asking me to vote for you, asking the Black community to come out for you in 2022 or 2024 when you ain't doing nothing in 2021.”

Indeed, Rev. Al Sharpton, a civil rights activist who attended the White House signing ceremony for the infrastructure bill, warned that Biden was approaching “the red zone” with Black voters.

At the end of the infrastructure event, Sharpton said he urged Biden to use his bully pulpit to fight harder to enact a policing overhaul and protect voting rights that are under attack in Republican-led states.

“They’ve got to between now and the end of January crank it up or they’re going to have real problems," Sharpton said.