最新预测显示飓风多里安——周五升级为四级风暴——正在改变航向。据国家飓风中心(NHC)称，风暴路径在一夜之间发生了“显著变化”。气象预报员称大西洋上空的一个高压系统可能会将多里安推向北部，完全绕过佛罗里达。

多里安最初预计在周一某个时候登陆佛罗里达，可能会影响卡罗莱纳州和佐治亚州的12个县。然而，最新的多里安跟踪图像显示，国家飓风中心称之为“不确定锥”，周六早上，他们的专家表示，现在判断风暴将首先袭击哪里还为时过早。

截至美国东部时间周五晚上11点，多里安中心位于巴哈马以东约375英里处，国家飓风中心预测“风暴潮和飓风将持续一段时间”飓风的位置也在佛罗里达州西棕榈滩海岸545英里处。

到周六早上，飓风预计将于周三登陆美国，如果有的话。

该中心还指出，如果多里安中心继续离岸，南卡罗来纳州和佐治亚州沿岸的人们仍将面临潜在的“危及生命”的风暴潮。在这种情况下，佛罗里达只能看到10英寸的降雨量。

当一些专家转向使用流行的“意大利面模型”来显示风暴可能的发展时，其他人觉得他们弊大于利。国家飓风中心更喜欢“不确定锥”，因为它更容易阅读。根据NHC的母机构国家海洋大气管理局的气象学家丹尼斯·费尔根的说法，NHC“从未在其网站上发布过该模型”。

费尔顿告诉记者:“我们选择不这样做，因为我们的经验表明，这样的情节让一些用户感到困惑，最重要的是，偏离了我们的最终信息——官方的赛道预测。”新闻周刊。"一些用户陷入了由线条呈现的单个预测场景中——其中许多几乎没有或根本没有正确的机会。这不是我们想要传达的信息。"

这天气频道报道称，尽管道路不确定，多里安预计将在未来几天变得更大，尽管它会失去一些速度。到目前为止，飓风已经形成了每小时140英里的最大持续风速。

该频道报道说:“美国东部时间周六早上5点，热带风暴风力(至少每小时39英里)从多里安中心延伸了大约105英里。”。“这个距离预计会在假期周末翻倍。这一增长意味着更多地区面临感受道林冲击的风险，甚至是官方预测锥之外的地区。”

此外，洪水的风险随着移动较慢的风暴而增加。气象预报员称多里安的速度下降不仅意味着暴雨，还意味着登陆时“更长时间的强风、沿海洪水和风暴潮”。

WHERE WILL DORIAN STRIKE? CATEGORY 4 STORM CHANGES COURSE, MAY HIT CAROLINAS, GEORGIA

The latest projections show Hurricane Dorian—upgraded to a category 4 storm Friday—shifting course. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a "notable change" to the storm's path occurred overnight. Forecasters now say a high-pressure system building over the Atlantic Ocean could push Dorian a little more to the north, bypassing Florida altogether.

Dorian was originally predicted to make landfall in Florida some time on Monday, potentially affecting the Carolinas and 12 counties in Georgia. However, the latest Dorian tracking images show what the National Hurricane Center has called a "cone of uncertainty," and on Saturday morning their experts said it was still too soon to tell just where the storm will hit first.

As of 11 p.m. EDT Friday, Dorian's center was approximately 375 miles east of the Bahamas, with the National Hurricane Center forecasting "a prolonged period of storm surge and hurricane-force winds." The hurricane's location was also 545 miles off the coast of West Palm Beach, Florida.

By Saturday morning, the hurricane was expected to make landfall in the U.S. on Wednesday, if at all.

The center also noted that, should the center Dorian remain offshore, those along the South Carolina and Georgia coasts would still have potentially "life-threatening" storm surges to contend with. In that scenario, Florida could see as little as 10 inches of rain.

While some experts turn to the use of the popular "spaghetti model" to show a storm's likely progression, others feel they can do more harm than good. The National Hurricane Center prefers the "cone of uncertainty" because it is easier to read. The NHC has "never posted the model runs on its website," according to Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist for the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, the NHC's parent agency.

"We have chosen to not do so because our experience indicates such plots confuse some users and, most importantly, detracts from our final message, the official track forecast," Feltgen told Newsweek. "Some users get caught up in the individual forecast scenarios presented by the lines—many of which have little or no chance of being correct. This is not the message we want to send."

The Weather Channel reports that despite its uncertain path, Dorian is expected to grow larger in the coming days, though it will lose some of its speed. So far, the hurricane has developed maximum sustained windspeeds of 140 miles per hour.

"At 5 a.m. EDT Saturday, tropical-storm-force winds (at least 39 mph) extended about 105 miles from the center of Dorian," the channel reported. "That distance is expected to double over the holiday weekend. The increase means that more areas are at risk of feeling impacts from Dorian, even those outside of the official forecast cone."

Additionally, the risk of flooding increases with a slower-moving storm. Forecasters say Dorian's decreased speed could mean not only heavy rains, but a "longer period of strong winds, coastal flooding and storm surge" when it reaches land.