弗吉尼亚州里士满——四年来，没有什么能像推动改革那样让民主党团结起来唐纳德·特朗普不在办公室。现在，他们不知道没有他该怎么办。
弗吉尼亚州的民主党人正争先恐后地避免该州州长竞选中的灾难——这是特朗普离开白宫以来最具竞争力的重大选举。这场令人惊讶的激烈竞争暴露了该党对特朗普作为信息和激励者的依赖程度。如果没有他，许多人的首要考虑，以及来自华盛顿的逆风，民主党官员私下担心，他们可能会在周二输掉十多年来弗吉尼亚州的首次全州选举。
最近几周，公众投票朝着共和党新人格伦·扬金的方向转变，而前州长、总统乔·拜登的亲密盟友民主党人特里·麦考利夫(Terry McAuliffe)在拜登支持率下降的情况下，一直在努力重振自己的基础。特朗普执政期间，共和党人被内讧和危机所吞噬，他们突然乐观地认为，他们可以在特朗普去年输了10个百分点的州获胜。
共和党全国委员会主席罗纳·麦克丹尼尔说:“弗吉尼亚州是一个非常蓝的州——我不认为弗吉尼亚州是一个紫色的州——所以我们如此有竞争力的事实充分说明了我们国家的现状和拜登的受欢迎程度。
弗吉尼亚州长竞选的失败，长期以来被认为是中期选举的风向标，将在远超弗吉尼亚的民主党人中引发全面恐慌。该党已经对他们在明年决定众议院、参议院和州议会控制权的选举中的机会保持警惕。
民主党全国委员会主席海梅·哈里森(Jaime Harrison)承认，麦考利夫的失败将是“世界末日”的场景。但他认为弗吉尼亚的民主党人会出现，为麦考利夫赢得胜利。
“我不会在头发着火的情况下到处跑，现在不会，”他说。
不管结果如何，这场竞选都将被挑选出来，寻找哪些能引起选民共鸣，哪些没有。
特朗普九个多月前卸任，围绕他的政治仍很复杂。麦考利夫的团队认为，他在弗吉尼亚州的民主党基础、无党派人士甚至一些温和的共和党人中仍然非常不受欢迎。因此，他应该是麦考利夫联盟的良好推动者。但特朗普不在聚光灯下，加上选民疲劳和挥之不去的大流行，似乎削弱了反特朗普的热情——至少目前是这样。
尽管如此，麦考利夫在创纪录的筹款活动中花了大部分时间警告选民，他的对手是“特朗普崇拜者”，他得到了特朗普的支持，但与他保持距离麦考利夫的闭幕电视广告中有1月6日国会大厦暴动的镜头，这场暴动是由特朗普的支持者领导的，他们相信前总统关于“偷来的选举”的谎言
扬金为这些攻击创造了机会，他在提名竞争中把“选举诚信”作为竞选的核心，并拒绝透露拜登是合法当选的，直到他锁定提名。美国民主党众议员阿比盖尔·斯潘伯格(Abigail Spanberger)为麦考利夫将这一问题升级的决定辩护说，杨金表现出了“缺乏领导的资格”。
她说:“我们不能忘记——我当然也永远不会忘记——1月6日我们在国会大厦发生了暴动。“从字面上看，人们打着美国国旗的警察，这是前总统散布的谎言，大声疾呼的人，当选的官员，传播的谎言。”
在周六晚上福克斯新闻频道播出的一次采访中，特朗普驳斥了麦考利夫的“反特朗普战略”。
特朗普说:“我认为这适得其反，因为我认为这让基地出来投票。”他指出，他“强烈”支持杨金“我觉得如果我的基地不出来他就赢不了。我认为我的基础必须非常强大。”
与此同时，扬金没有扮演愤怒的特朗普忠实者的角色。
作为一名经常回避棘手政策问题的前私募股权高管，杨金将2000多万美元的个人财产投入了一场长达一个月的广告活动，将自己定义为一个穿着羊毛背心、和蔼可亲的郊区父亲。他没有与特朗普或任何高调的共和党人一起竞选，他告诉记者，他不会参与特朗普周一的电视集会。
为了与该党的基础联系起来，扬金抓住了保守派在大流行政策以及种族和多样性教育方面对学校的不满。他受益于一个家长团体网络，其中一些由与共和党和特朗普政府有联系的政治专业人士领导，并在关键郊区启动。他刊登了一则广告，介绍一位母亲和共和党活动家，他在八年前带头努力禁止《宠儿》进入课堂，这部小说由黑人诺贝尔奖得主托尼·莫里森(Toni Morrison)创作，曾获普利策奖。
麦考利夫称之为“种族主义狗哨”，扬金否认了这一指控。
历史对民主党不利，民主党控制着弗吉尼亚州和华盛顿的立法和行政部门。传统上，入主白宫的政党几乎总是会输掉弗吉尼亚州州长的竞选。麦考利夫本人是40年来第一个在2013年打破这一趋势的人。
麦考利夫的团队指出，拜登的支持率正在下滑，在他担任总统的这个时候，他的支持率已经接近特朗普的水平。与此同时，民主党领导的国会未能兑现全面的竞选承诺，因为关于大规模气候变化和社会安全网一揽子计划的谈判仍在继续。本周，民主党放弃了一项广受欢迎的带薪探亲假提议，这让弗吉尼亚州的许多民主党女性感到失望，弗吉尼亚州是一个关键的选区。
除了失望，弗吉尼亚州的民主党人说他们已经筋疲力尽了。
“我们已经处于高度戒备状态四年了，从COVID出来，从封锁中出来。我认为人们只是在过自己的生活，不想考虑选举，”州参议员詹妮弗·麦克莱伦说，她与麦考利夫竞选民主党提名。
自2004年以来，一名共和党总统候选人从未在该州获胜。人口普查数据显示，该州倾向民主党的北部正在增长，而共和党的据点正在失去人口。
费尔法克斯县的投票率接近70%，是迄今为止弗吉尼亚州人口最多的县，在过去十年里，该县以6%的速度增长，人口达到115万。它也成为了一个少数民族占多数的县。与此同时，在弗吉尼亚西南部的深红色地区以及该州的南部边境，几乎每个地方都失去了人口。
这些趋势，加上特朗普时代郊区共和党人对民主党的转变，表明民主党人只要拿出支持者，就能在周二轻松获胜。然而，周六结束的提前投票期并没有像民主党人希望的那样吸引关键地区选民的激增。
本周早些时候，在该州保守的南部边缘，一场麦考利夫投票活动只吸引了几十人来到教堂接待大厅。马丁斯维尔市副市长詹妮弗·鲍尔斯(Jennifer Bowles)表示，她希望麦考利夫获胜，但在她居住的地方看到了特朗普实力的证据。
“这不是贬低。如果有什么不同的话，那就是感觉它变得越来越强了，”鲍尔斯说。“这让我害怕。”
据该州一名发言人说，周五晚上，麦考利夫与副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯和音乐艺术家法瑞尔·威廉姆斯一起在诺福克竞选，吸引了大约1000人。
麦考利夫紧追杨金和他的支持者，告诉人群:“我无法告诉你们这次选举有多关键。利害关系再清楚不过了。不挡道...阴谋论者，我们有反恐怖分子，我们有唐纳德·特朗普。他们都站在一边。”
向北行驶三个小时，在沃伦顿农村，1000多人参加了一场集会，杨金和一些州议员参加了集会。
“我们让特里跑了，”扬金告诉电动人群。“我们将把共和党人带进这个联邦，并发表一份全世界都能听到的声明。”
A post-Trump test for Democrats looms in Virginia election
RICHMOND, Va. -- For four years, nothing rallied Democrats like the push to getDonald Trumpout of office. Now, they're not sure what to do without him.
Democrats in Virginia are scrambling to stave off disaster in the state's governor's race — the most competitive major election since Trump left the White House. The surprisingly tight contest has exposed the depth of the party's dependence on Trump as a message and motivator. Without him top of mind for many, and with headwinds from Washington, Democratic officials privately fear they may lose their first statewide election in Virginia in more than a decade on Tuesday.
Public polling has been shifting in Republican newcomer Glenn Youngkin's direction in recent weeks, while Democrat Terry McAuliffe, a former governor and close ally of President Joe Biden, has struggled to energize his base as Biden's approval ratings sink. Republicans, consumed by infighting and crisis while Trump was in office, are suddenly optimistic they can win in a state Trump lost by 10 percentage points last year.
“Virginia is a very blue state — I do not consider Virginia a purple state — so the fact that we’re this competitive speaks volumes about the state of our country and the popularity of Biden,” said Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel.
A loss in the Virginia governor's race, long considered a bellwether for midterm elections, would trigger all-out panic among Democrats far beyond Virginia. The party is already wary about their chances in elections that will decide control of the House and Senate and statehouses next year.
Jaime Harrison, chair of the Democratic National Committee, acknowledged a McAuliffe loss would be a “doomsday” scenario. But he argued that Virginia Democrats would show up and pull off a win for McAuliffe.
“I’m not running around with my hair on fire, not at this point," he said.
Regardless of the outcome, the race will be picked over for clues about what resonated with voters — and what didn't.
The politics surrounding Trump, who left office more than nine months ago, remain complicated. McAuliffe's team believes he remains very unpopular among the Democratic base, independents and even some moderate Republicans in Virginia. As such, he should be a good motivator for McAuliffe's coalition. But Trump's absence from the spotlight, combined with voter fatigue and the lingering pandemic, seems to have diluted anti-Trump passions — at least for now.
Still, McAuliffe spent the vast majority of his record fundraising haul warning voters that his opponent, who was endorsed by Trump but kept his distance from him, is a “Trump wannabe.” McAuliffe's closing TV ads featured footage from the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection led by Trump supporters who believed the former president's lies about a “stolen election.”
Youngkin created the opening for those attacks when he made “election integrity” the centerpiece of his run during the nomination contest and declined to say Biden was legitimately elected until after he locked up the nomination. Youngkin has shown a “disqualifying lack of leadership," said Democratic U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger, defending McAuliffe's decision to elevate the issue.
“We can’t forget — and I certainly will never forget — that we had an insurrection on Jan. 6 at the nation’s Capitol," she said. “Literally, people beat police officers with American flags under this notion of a lie that the former president spewed and people with loud voices, elected officials, propagated."
In an interview that aired Saturday night on Fox News, Trump addressed dismissed McAuliffe's' anti-Trump strategy.
“I think it backfires, because I think that gets the base to come out and vote,” Trump said, noting that he has endorsed Youngkin “strongly.” "I think if my base doesn’t come out he can’t win. I think my base has to come out very strong.”
Meanwhile, Youngkin has not played the part of an angry Trump loyalist.
A former private equity executive who often dodges questions on thorny policy issues, Youngkin devoted more than $20 million of his personal fortune to a monthslong advertising campaign defining himself as an affable, suburban dad in a fleece vest. He has not campaigned with Trump or any high-profile Republicans, and he told reporters he would not be involved with a Trump telerally on Monday.
To connect with the party's base, Youngkin seized on conservatives' frustrations with schools over pandemic policies and race and diversity education. He’s benefited from a network of parent groups, some led by political professionals with ties to the GOP and Trump administration, activated in key suburbs. He ran an ad featuring a mother and GOP activist who eight years ago led an effort to ban “Beloved,” the Pulitzer Prize-winning novel by Black Nobel laureate Toni Morrison, from classrooms.
McAuliffe calls it a “racist dog whistle," an allegation Youngkin denied.
History is working against Democrats, who control the legislative and executive branches in Virginia and in Washington. Traditionally, the party that holds the White House almost always loses the Virginia governor's race. McAuliffe himself was the first in 40 years to break that trend in 2013.
McAuliffe's team points to Biden's slipping popularity, which has fallen close to Trump's levels at this point in his presidency. Meanwhile, the Democratic-led Congress has failed to deliver sweeping campaign promises as negotiations over a massive climate change and social safety net package drag on. This week, Democrats dropped a popular paid family leave proposal, disappointing many Democratic women in Virginia, a critical constituency.
Aside from disappointment, Democrats in Virginia say they're exhausted.
“We’ve had four years of being on high alert, coming out of COVID, coming out of a lockdown. I think people were just living their lives and didn’t want to think about an election,” said state Sen. Jennifer McClellan, who ran against McAuliffe for the Democratic nomination.
A Republican presidential candidate hasn't carried the state since 2004. Census data shows the state's Democratic-leaning northern part of the state growing, while GOP strongholds lose population.
Fairfax County, which voted nearly 70% for Biden and is by far Virginia's most populous county, grew at a 6% rate to a population of 1.15 million in the last decade. It also became a majority-minority county. Meanwhile, in deep red southwest Virginia and along the state’s southern border, nearly every locality lost population.
The trends, combined with a Democratic shift among suburban Republicans during the Trump era, suggest that Democrats would win easily on Tuesday if only they turn out their supporters. The early voting period, which ends Saturday, did not attract the surge in voters in key areas that Democrats hoped for, however.
A McAuliffe get-out-the-vote event in the conservative southern edge of the state drew only a few dozen people to a church reception hall earlier in the week. One attendee, Martinsville Vice Mayor Jennifer Bowles, said she hopes McAuliffe wins but sees evidence of Trump’s strength where she lives.
“It’s not diminished. If anything, it feels like it’s getting stronger,” Bowles said. “It scares me.”
McAuliffe campaigned alongside Vice President Kamala Harris and musical artist Pharrell Williams on Friday night in Norfolk, drawing roughly 1,000 people, according to a state party spokesperson.
McAuliffe went after Youngkin and his supporters, telling the crowd: "I cannot tell you how critical this election is. The stakes could not be any more clear. On one side ... conspiracy theorists, we’ve got antivaxxers and we got Donald Trump. They’re all on one side.”
Three hours to the north in rural Warrenton, more than 1,000 people attended a rally that featured Youngkin and a handful of state legislators.
“We have Terry on the run,” Youngkin told the electric crowd. “We are gonna sweep Republicans in across this Commonwealth and make a statement that will be heard around the world.”
