周二晚上,乔·拜登总统在一次集会上担任主角,他是最新一位弗吉尼亚州的竞选州长候选人特里·麦考利夫加入了该党的一长串杰出人物的行列动员选民反对共和党提名人格伦·扬金。
“你们都知道其中的利害关系,”拜登在美国首都郊外阿灵顿的弗吉尼亚高地公园对一群支持者说。“你不必怀疑特里会成为什么样的州长,因为你知道他是一个多么伟大的州长。这不仅仅是因为他承诺了什么,而是因为他兑现了什么。”
这标志着总统第二次为麦考利夫助选;他第一次和他一起竞选是在7月下旬。
在总统选举后的第二年,弗吉尼亚州的休赛期选举,尤其是州长竞选,总是在下降,被认为是中期选举政治走向的风向标。在唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)担任总统的四年里,弗吉尼亚州的趋势越来越蓝,但这次选举将是衡量共和党的指责在过去的总统战场上有多持久的第一步。麦考利夫的失败,甚至是险胜,也将为华盛顿的民主党人敲响警钟,一位不受欢迎的总统和由党内分歧定义的停滞不前的议程可能会让他们明年在国会失去微弱的多数席位。
拜登的认可不仅是全国水下,而且在弗吉尼亚州,一个蒙莫斯民意测验上周的调查显示,超过一半的选民不赞成他作为总统所做的工作。
亚历克斯·布兰登/美联社
乔·拜登总统(右)在民主党州长竞选集会上发表讲话后做出反应.
特朗普在5月份获得共和党提名后支持了扬金,但他没有与候选人进行任何活动。男性召集集会为了支持全州范围内的共和党票,与会者宣誓效忠一面据说在1月6日起义前的集会上举着的旗帜,但扬金不在那里,并谴责这一誓言是“奇怪和错误的。”这位共和党人不得不在过于支持或反对特朗普之间小心翼翼,以免疏远政治光谱两端的选民,他还通过提醒对手特朗普不在选票上来回击麦考利夫对特朗普的攻击,试图将重点放在弗吉尼亚特有的问题上。
该州两次拒绝了这位前总统(2020年以10个百分点的优势),民主党人在2019年推翻了该州立法机构,共和党人十多年来没有赢得全州范围的职位——所有迹象都表明特朗普在弗吉尼亚州有政治毒性。麦考利夫和其他民主党人试图利用特朗普的毒性来拖累杨金,利用一切机会将他与前总统捆绑在一起。
但在周二晚上的集会上,拜登借用了麦考利夫的剧本,将杨金与前总统紧密联系在一起。
“你对特里的对手了解多少?嗯,记住这一点,我和唐纳德·特朗普竞选。特里正在与唐纳德·特朗普的追随者竞争,”拜登说,并声称扬金接受了特朗普的“坏主意和坏记录。”
总统还评论了杨金如何没有与特朗普一起参加任何竞选活动,声称这位共和党提名人“不会允许唐纳德·特朗普在这个州为他竞选。”
“他想隐瞒什么?特朗普在这里有问题吗?他尴尬吗?”拜登反问人群。
尽管过去几周竞选愈演愈烈,但麦考利夫相信,如果候选人与现任白宫主人有相同的党派关系,他将再次打破所谓的“弗吉尼亚诅咒”,即候选人在弗吉尼亚休赛期的州长竞选中失败。他在2013年巴拉克·奥巴马担任总统时打破了这一记录。
被弗吉尼亚州法律禁止寻求连任的麦考利夫,在首次赢得州长官邸八年后,正在争取复出,尽管民主党人最近取得了进展,但他仍与前私募股权高管扬金(Youngkin)进行着激烈的竞争,扬金是他第一次竞选政治职位。根据五点三十八分轮询平均值,麦考利夫的领先优势距离选举日不到两个百分点,低于他在8月初对杨金的近八个百分点的峰值。
拜登吹捧麦考利夫的第一个任期,甚至说他从民主党的书中“吸取了一页”,在国会和白宫仍在谈判的“重建更好”法案中纳入了对预K的扩展。拜登还强调了麦考利夫在经济和创造新就业机会方面的记录,他说,“如果你正在寻找一个能让你的经济持续增长的人,我身后的人就是完成这项工作的人。”
寻求国家政治家的帮助与麦考利夫和其他民主党人如何将这场竞选的赌注国有化是一致的。
麦考利夫周六在里士满与奥巴马一起举行的集会上说:“这次选举关乎弗吉尼亚州和我们国家的下一个篇章。
美国副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯周四在威廉王子县的一次集会上说:“我向你们保证,这里发生的事情是关于这些州的人民和我们国家的人民的。”。
除了奥巴马和哈里斯,他们将于周五返回该州,与弗吉尼亚海滩本地人法瑞尔·威廉姆斯一起参加在诺福克举行的音乐会集会,麦考利夫还让第一夫人吉尔·拜登、第二绅士道格·埃姆霍夫、参议员艾米·克洛布查尔、斯泰西·艾布拉姆斯和亚特兰大市长凯莎·兰斯·博茨为他竞选。新泽西州参议员科里·布克和加利福尼亚州参议员亚历克斯·帕迪拉周三晚上在北弗吉尼亚州为他竞选。
随着竞选活动的结束,扬金采取了不同的方式,他在英联邦各地兜售他为期10天、50站的“与格伦一起赢”巴士之旅,并嘲笑他的对手依靠“大牌代理人来吸引微不足道、冷漠的人群。”
“没人会来和我一起竞选,”扬金上周告诉哥伦比亚广播公司。“我的意思是,这是一场关于弗吉尼亚人和弗吉尼亚挑战的比赛。”
民调显示,共和党人比民主党人更热衷于参与这次选举。华盛顿的困境对麦考利夫的压力有多大,以及是否有足够多的弗吉尼亚州选民支持民主党人试图将扬金和特朗普描绘成一个整体,并在这场竞选中投票反对他,在计票之前都不得而知。
乔治·梅森大学沙尔政策和政府学院院长马克·罗泽尔周二告诉美国广播公司新闻,为麦考利夫牵线搭桥的国家代理人的数量表明了民主党人的担忧。
“我认为这在很大程度上与麦考利夫的竞选团队担心民主党的基础现在正在沉睡,民主党的品牌现在正在遭受痛苦,因为总统的受欢迎程度下降,阿富汗发生的事情,以及人们认为该党无法在华盛顿团结起来完成工作,”罗塞尔说,他在《华盛顿邮报》的意见部分报道了这场竞选。
麦考利夫本人也承认总统在弗吉尼亚州的支持率正在下降。
“我们必须让民主党人出来投票。如你所知,我们正面临来自华盛顿的许多不利因素。不幸的是,总统今天在弗吉尼亚州不受欢迎,所以我们必须努力度过难关,”他在10月5日的一次虚拟集会上说,这次集会被共和党全国委员会剪辑并发布在社交媒体上。
在拜登快速过河之前的一份声明中,RNC女主席罗纳·麦克丹尼尔说,麦考利夫知道总统“正在辜负弗吉尼亚人。”
她说:“以前所未有的共和党热情,弗吉尼亚人准备在今年11月拒绝特里·麦考利夫和乔·拜登,转而支持格伦·扬金和共和党上下投票。
Biden stumps for McAuliffe in Virginia ahead of gubernatorial election
Headlining a rally Tuesday evening, President Joe Biden was the latest national Democrat tocampaign in Virginiafor gubernatorial nominee Terry McAuliffe, joining a long list of prominent figures in the party who've descended on the commonwealth tomobilize votersagainst Republican nominee Glenn Youngkin.
"You all know the stakes," Biden told a crowd of supporters at the Virginia Highlands Park in Arlington, just outside the nation's capital. "You don't have to wonder what kind of governor Terry will be because you know what a great governor he was. It wasn't just because of what he promised, it's what he delivered."
This marked the president's second time stumping for McAuliffe; he first campaigned with him in late July.
Always falling the year after a presidential election, Virginia's off-year elections, in particular the gubernatorial race, are considered a bellwether for politics heading into the midterm elections. Virginia trended increasingly blue over the four years of Donald Trump's presidency, but this election will be the first measure of how lasting that rebuke of the GOP is in what used to be a presidential battleground. A loss for McAuliffe, or even a narrow win, will also serve as a warning shot for Democrats in Washington that an unpopular president and stalled agenda defined by intraparty differences could cost them their slim majorities in Congress next year.
Biden's approval is not onlyunderwater nationally,but also in Virginia, where aMonmouth pollout last week showed more than half of voters disapprove of the job he is doing as president.
Trump endorsed Youngkin after he secured the Republican nomination in May, but he has not done any events with the candidate. Hecalled into a rallyin support of the statewide GOP ticket where attendees pledged allegiance to a flag said to be carried at the rally preceding the Jan. 6 insurrection, but Youngkin was not there and denounced the pledge as "weird and wrong." The Republican has had to toe the thin line between being too pro- or anti-Trump so as not to alienate voters on either end of the political spectrum, and he's fired back at McAuliffe's Trump attacks by reminding his opponent that Trump is not on the ballot, trying to keep the focus on Virginia-specific issues.
The state rejected the former president twice (and by a 10-point margin in 2020), Democrats flipped the state legislature in 2019 and Republicans haven't won statewide office in over a decade -- all indications Trump is politically toxic in Virginia. McAuliffe and other Democrats have tried to use Trump's toxicity to drag down Youngkin, tying him to the former president at every opportunity.
But during Tuesday night's rally, Biden borrowed McAuliffe's playbook, closely tying Youngkin to the former president.
"How well do you know Terry's opponent? Well, just remember this, I ran against Donald Trump. Terry is running against an acolyte of Donald Trump," Biden said, claiming Youngkin has embraced Trump's "bad ideas and bad record."
The president also comment on how Youngkin hasn't done any campaign events with Trump, claiming the GOP nominee "won't allow Donald Trump to campaign for him in this state."
"What's he trying to hide? Is there a problem with Trump being here? Is he embarrassed?" Biden rhetorically asked the crowd.
Despite the race tightening over the last few weeks, McAuliffe is confident he'll once again break the so-called "Virginia curse" of candidates losing Virginia's off-year gubernatorial race if they have the same party affiliation as the current occupant of the White House. He broke it in 2013 when Barack Obama was president.
Barred by Virginia law from seeking a consecutive term, McAuliffe is vying for a comeback eight years after first winning the governor's mansion, and despite Democrats' recent gains, he's locked in a tight race with Youngkin, a former private equity executive running his first campaign for political office. According to FiveThirtyEight'spolling average, the McAuliffe's lead is under two points one week out from Election Day -- down from a nearly eight-point peak over Youngkin he had in early August.
Biden touted McAuliffe first term in office, even saying he's "taking a page" from the Democrat's book by including an expansion of pre-K in his Build Back Better bill that Congress and the White House are still negotiating. Biden also plugged McAuliffe's record on the economy and creating new jobs, saying, "If you're looking for someone who's going to keep your economy going and growing, the man behind me's the guy to get it done."
Calling in help from national politicians is in line with how McAuliffe and other Democrats have nationalized the stakes of this race.
"This election is about the next chapter of Virginia -- and our country," McAuliffe said at a rally in Richmond with Obama Saturday.
"What happens here, I promise you is about people in these state and the people of our country," Vice President Kamala Harris said at a rally in Prince William County Thursday.
In addition to Obama and Harris, who will be back in the state Friday for a concert rally in Norfolk with Virginia Beach native Pharrell Williams, McAuliffe has had first lady Jill Biden, second gentleman Doug Emhoff, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Stacey Abrams and Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms campaign for him. Sens. Cory Booker, D-N.J., and Alex Padilla, D-Calif., are campaigning for him in Northern Virginia Wednesday night.
Youngkin has taken a different approach as the campaign ends, touting his 10-day, 50-stop "Win with Glenn" bus tour around the commonwealth and mocking his opponent for relying "on big name surrogates to draw paltry, apathetic crowds."
"Nobody's coming to campaign with me," Youngkin told CBS last week. "I mean, this is a race about Virginians and about the Virginia challenges."
Polls show Republicans are more enthusiastic about participating in this election than Democrats. How heavily Washington's woes weigh on McAuliffe, and whether enough Virginia voters buy the Democrats' attempts to paint Youngkin and Trump as one in the same, and in turn, vote against him in this race, won't be known until the votes are counted.
Mark Rozell, dean of George Mason University's Schar School of Policy and Government, told ABC News Tuesday that the number of national surrogates stumping for McAuliffe is indicative of Democrats' concerns.
"I think a lot of that has to do with the McAuliffe campaign being worried that the Democratic base is asleep right now, that the Democratic brand right now is suffering because of the declining popularity of the president, what happened in Afghanistan, the perception that the party just can't get it together in Washington to get things done," said Rozell, who's covered this race in the Washington Post's opinion section.
McAuliffe himself has acknowledged the president's falling support in Virginia.
"We got to get Democrats out to vote. We are facing a lot of headwinds from Washington, as you know. The president is unpopular today, unfortunately, here in Virginia, so we have got to plow through," he said during a virtual rally on Oct. 5 that was clipped by the Republican National Committee and posted on social media.
In a statement ahead of Biden's quick trip across the river, RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said McAuliffe knows the president "is failing Virginians."
"With an unprecedented amount of Republican enthusiasm, Virginians are ready to reject Terry McAuliffe and Joe Biden this November and turn out for Glenn Youngkin and Republicans up and down the ballot," she said.