纽约——准备好支付今年冬天大幅上涨的取暖费用，以及其他一切。
随着全球取暖油、天然气和其他燃料价格飙升，美国政府周三表示，预计与去年冬天相比，家庭取暖费用将上涨54%。
美国近一半的家庭使用天然气取暖，今年冬天他们平均可以支付746美元，比一年前增加了30%。中西部的那些人可能会特别拮据，账单估计上涨了49%，这可能是自2008-2009年以来天然气供暖家庭最昂贵的冬天。
家庭使用第二多的供暖来源是电力，占全国的41%，这些家庭可以看到6%的适度增长，达到1268美元。使用取暖用油的家庭占全国的4%，可能会增加43%，超过500美元，达到1734美元。增幅最大的可能是使用丙烷的家庭，占美国家庭的5%。
今年冬天全国各地预计会比去年略冷。这意味着人们可能会燃烧更多的燃料来取暖，除此之外，还会为每一点燃料支付更多的钱。如果冬天比预测的还要冷，取暖费用可能会比预计的要高，反之亦然。
美国能源信息署的预测是对全球经济通胀加剧的最新提醒。周三早些时候，政府发布了一份单独的报告，显示9月份美国消费者的价格比一年前上涨了5.4%。这与2008年以来最热的通货膨胀率相匹配，因为复苏的经济和混乱的供应链推高了从汽车到食品杂货的价格。
更高的价格打击了所有人，大多数工人的工资增长至今跟不上通货膨胀。但它们尤其伤害了低收入家庭。
“在大流行中人们遭受重创之后，就像是:接下来会发生什么?”危机援助部的首席执行官卡罗尔·哈德森说，该部帮助北卡罗来纳州夏洛特市面临经济困难的人。
她说，最近前来寻求援助的家庭的未付账单大约是大流行前的两倍。他们在与更贵的住房、更高的医疗费用以及有时减少的工作时间作斗争。
她说:“这就是我们对这场流行病的了解:它袭击了那些已经在为工资跟不上生活成本而挣扎的人。
为了维持生计，家庭正在大幅削减开支。根据美国人口普查局9月份的一项调查，近22%的美国人在过去12个月中至少有一个月不得不减少或放弃药品或食品等基本必需品的支出，以支付能源账单。
全国能源援助理事协会执行理事马克·沃尔夫说:“这将会给该国最底层三分之一的人带来巨大的困难。“你可以告诉他们削减开支，尽量在晚上调低温度，但许多低收入家庭已经这样做了。他们已经负担不起能源了。”
这些家庭中的许多人刚刚度过了一个炎热的夏天，他们面临着高昂的空调费用。
沃尔夫说，国会为低收入家庭的能源援助项目拨款，但这些项目的负责人现在看到，随着燃料成本不断攀升，他们的购买力正在下降。
今年冬天取暖费用上涨的最大原因是，能源商品价格在2020年跌至多年低点后，最近大幅上涨。随着冠状病毒导致的停产后经济恢复活力，需求的增长速度已经超过了生产速度。
例如，美国的天然气价格已攀升至2014年以来的最高水平，比去年上涨了约90%。与此同时，取暖用油的批发价格在过去12个月里上涨了一倍多。
上涨的另一个原因是燃料市场变得多么全球化。在欧洲，强劲的需求和有限的供应使得天然气价格今年上涨了350%以上。这促使美国生产的部分天然气运往其他国家，也增加了国内价格的上行压力。
根据巴克莱分析师Amarpreet Singh的说法，储存库存中的天然气量相对较低。这意味着进入冬季供暖季的坐垫越来越少。
与此同时，取暖油价格与原油价格密切相关，今年原油价格上涨了60%以上。受这些上涨影响的家庭主要在东北部，那里使用取暖用油的家庭比例从过去十年的27%下降到18%。
Winter heating bills set to jump as inflation hits home
NEW YORK -- Get ready to pay sharply higher bills for heating this winter, along with seemingly everything else.
With prices surging worldwide for heating oil, natural gas and other fuels, the U.S. government said Wednesday it expects households to see their heating bills jump as much as 54% compared to last winter.
Nearly half the homes in the U.S. use natural gas for heat, and they could pay an average $746 this winter, 30% more than a year ago. Those in the Midwest could get particularly pinched, with bills up an estimated 49%, and this could be the most expensive winter for natural-gas heated homes since 2008-2009.
The second-most used heating source for homes is electricity, making up 41% of the country, and those households could see a more modest 6% increase to $1,268. Homes using heating oil, which make up 4% of the country, could see a 43% increase — more than $500 — to $1,734. The sharpest increases are likely for homes that use propane, which account for 5% of U.S. households.
This winter is forecast to be slightly colder across the country than last year. That means people will likely be burning more fuel to keep warm, on top of paying more for each bit of it. If the winter ends up being even colder than forecast, heating bills could be higher than estimated, and vice-versa.
The forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is the latest reminder of the higher inflation ripping across the global economy. Earlier Wednesday, the government released a separate report showing that prices were 5.4% higher for U.S. consumers in September than a year ago. That matches the hottest inflation rate since 2008, as a reawakening economy and snarled supply chains push up prices for everything from cars to groceries.
The higher prices hit everyone, with pay raises for most workers so far failing to keep up with inflation. But they hurt low-income households in particular.
“After the beating that people have taken in the pandemic, it’s like: What’s next?” said Carol Hardison, chief executive officer at Crisis Assistance Ministry, which helps people in Charlotte, North Carolina, who are facing financial hardship.
She said households coming in for assistance recently have had unpaid bills that are roughly twice as big as they were before the pandemic. They’re contending with more expensive housing, higher medical bills and sometimes a reduction in their hours worked.
“It’s what we know about this pandemic: It’s hit the same people that were already struggling with wages not keeping up with the cost of living,” she said.
To make ends meet, families are cutting deeply. Nearly 22% of Americans had to reduce or forego expenses for basic necessities, such as medicine or food, to pay an energy bill in at least one of the last 12 months, according to a September survey by the U.S. Census Bureau.
“This is going to create significant hardship for people in the bottom third of the country,” said Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors’ Association. “You can tell them to cut back and try to turn down the heat at night, but many low-income families already do that. Energy was already unaffordable to them.”
Many of those families are just now getting through a hot summer where they faced high air-conditioning bills.
Congress apportions some money to energy assistance programs for low-income households, but directors of those programs are now watching their purchasing power shrink as fuel costs keep climbing, Wolfe said.
The biggest reason for this winter's higher heating bills is the recent surge in prices for energy commodities after they dropped to multi-year lows in 2020. Demand has simply grown faster than production as the economy roars back to life following shutdowns caused by the coronavirus.
Natural gas in the United States, for example, has climbed to its highest price since 2014 and is up roughly 90% over the last year. The wholesale price of heating oil, meanwhile, has more than doubled in the last 12 months.
Another reason for the rise is how global the market for fuels has become. In Europe, strong demand and limited supplies have sent natural gas prices up more than 350% this year. That’s pushing some of the natural gas produced in the United States to head for ships bound for other countries, adding upward pressure on domestic prices as well.
The amount of natural gas in storage inventories is relatively low, according to Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh. That means there's less of a cushion heading into winter heating season.
Heating oil prices, meanwhile, are tied closely to the price of crude oil, which has climbed more than 60% this year. Homes affected by those increases are primarily in the Northeast, where the percentage of homes using heating oil has dropped to 18% from 27% over the past decade.
