华盛顿-修改税法和重要的联邦卫生保健和环境项目。在10年内花费3.5万亿美元,但可能会少很多。确保所有国会中不超过三名民主党人投反对票,因为共和党人将一致反对。
试着在接下来的几周内完成。哦,是的:失败意味着乔·拜登总统自己的政党将在他国内议程的基石上否定他。
这就是国会民主党人面临的问题,他们正试图为一项旨在加强社会安全网和加强应对气候变化的大规模法案撰写最终版本。以下是他们必须解决的一些关键分歧的指南:
价格标签
白宫和民主党高层就3.5万亿美元的10年费用达成妥协。这是一个巨大的数目,尽管只是那段时期61万亿美元联邦支出的一小部分。
西弗吉尼亚州的乔曼钦(Sens. Joe Manchin)和亚利桑那州的辛尼马(Kyrsten Sinema)领导的温和派表示,3.5万亿美元太贵了,参议院50-50席位的每个民主党人的选票都是成功的必备条件。拜登、众议院议长南希·佩洛西(加州民主党)和参议院多数党领袖查克·舒默(纽约民主党)最近承认了似乎不可避免的事情:最终成本可能不得不下降。
曼钦建议将总额限制在1万亿至1.5万亿美元,进步人士认为这微不足道。由参议院预算委员会主席伯尼·桑德斯领导。他们最初表示,至少需要6万亿美元来认真努力帮助家庭和遏制全球变暖。
最终会达成妥协,一些人预计会在2万亿到2.5万亿美元之间。但是,由于众议院委员会刚刚完成了3.5万亿美元版本的一揽子计划,较小的价格标签意味着一些优先事项将不得不削减。
赋税
为了支付大部分账单,众议院筹款委员会批准了2.1万亿美元的增税,主要针对富人和公司。一些细节和数字似乎可能会改变。
拜登承诺不会对收入低于40万美元的人增税,他可能会得到他的提议,将美国最富有人群的最高个人所得税税率提高到39.6%。这将高于前总统唐纳德·特朗普时期37%的支持率。
但是民主党人也想提高对最富有人群的其他税收。目前还不清楚哪些提案将继续存在,以何种形式存在。
例如,参议院财政委员会主席罗恩·怀登·多雷。,表示有兴趣提高继承人继承的一些大型房地产的税收。麻省理工学院理查德·尼尔主席。从他的小组计划中省略了。
民主党人希望为儿童、医疗保健和儿童护理费用以及低收入工人提供税收抵免。如果该法案的规模缩小,民主党人可能会通过推迟、逐步实施或取消或限制其中一些减免来省钱。一些温和派人士表示,拟议中的购买电动汽车的税收抵免不应该给高收入人群。
拜登希望将21%的企业税率提高到28%,但可能不得不接受25%左右的税率。民主党在企业海外收入税和股票回购方面面临其他分歧。
医疗保险
三名温和的民主党人阻止众议院委员会批准拜登和进步人士的一项首要任务:通过让医疗保险为其购买的药品谈判更低的价格来节省数千亿美元。另一个委员会批准了这种语言,所以它没有死。
尽管如此,该计划仍遭到制药商的反对,一些温和派人士希望淡化该计划。
民主党人计划用这些储蓄来支付另一个渐进的目标:新的牙科、视力和听力医疗保险。如果药物定价语言被淡化,产生的储蓄减少,那么医疗保险的扩张将如何融资就不清楚了。
盐和国税局
在一个喜欢首字母缩略词的小镇上,州税和地方税的简称SALT已经摆在桌面上。
来自高税收沿海社区的民主党人要求提高目前1万美元的扣除限额,纳税人可以要求扣除他们缴纳的州税和地方税。
由于佩洛西无法承受失去三张以上的民主党选票,许多人认为扣除上限将会提高。为了弥补损失的收入,可以给国税局额外的钱,或者要求银行向国税局报告更多的金融交易信息,这些想法旨在加强税收。
其他优先事项
众议院已提议向转向可再生燃料的电力公司提供资助,并对不转向可再生燃料的电力公司处以罚款,这是商会气候变化议程的一个支柱。参议院能源委员会主席曼钦是该州煤炭工业的坚定捍卫者,他告诉同事们他反对这样做。
众议院提出了一项强制性探亲假计划,其成本明显高于参议院民主党人的设想。议员们正在等待参议院议员的决定,即帮助数百万移民留在美国的语言是否违反预算规则,是否必须被省略。
时机
上个月,佩洛西告诉温和派,众议院将在9月27日之前考虑他们的首要任务,即一项单独的1万亿美元法案,为道路和其他基础设施项目融资。
在一项看似相互政治自杀的协议中,进步派威胁要投票反对该法案,除非缺乏热情的温和派支持3.5万亿美元的方案。理想情况下,民主党领导人会希望这两项法案一起投票。
有这么多的问题,3.5万亿美元的措施似乎不太可能在那时完成。这引发了人们的疑问,佩洛西将如何保持她所在政党的敌对派系支持彼此的优先法案,以及她将如何引导双方通过。
民主党的两大秘密武器
首先,这一努力的失败将意味着他们在制定最高优先事项上的不和谐失败,削弱他们在明年选举中保持国会多数席位的努力。每个民主党人都知道这一点。
另一个是佩洛西本人,她被证明在团结民主党人和挤出她需要的选票方面很灵巧。
众议院预算委员会主席约翰·亚穆特。,在上周的一次采访中引用了这两个因素,描述了他告诉民主党人的话。
“我已经说过,每个人都应该故作姿态,尽最大努力捍卫自己的优先事项,但归根结底,你会投票支持这件事,”亚尔穆特说。"顺便问一下,你见过南希·佩洛西吗?"
Democrats tackling flash points of taxes, health, climate
WASHINGTON -- Revamp the tax code and important federalhealth careand environment programs. Spend $3.5 trillion over 10 years, but maybe a lot less. Ensure that no more than three Democrats in all of Congress vote “no” because Republicans will be unanimously opposed.
Try to finish within the next couple of weeks. And oh yes: Failure means President Joe Biden's own party will have repudiated him on the cornerstone of his domestic agenda.
That's what congressional Democrats face as they try writing a final version of a massive bill bolstering the social safety net and strengthening efforts to tame climate change. Here's a guide to some pivotal differences they must resolve:
PRICE TAG
The White House and top Democrats compromised on a $3.5 trillion, 10-year cost for the bill. That's a huge sum, though a fraction of the $61 trillion in federal spending already slated over that period.
Moderates led by Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona have said $3.5 trillion is too expensive, and votes from every Democrat in the 50-50 Senate are mandatory for success. Biden, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., have recently acknowledged what seems inevitable: The final cost may have to drop.
Manchin has suggested limiting the total to $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, which progressives reject as paltry. Led by Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., they initially said at least $6 trillion was needed for serious efforts to help families and curb global warming.
Eventually a compromise will be reached, with some expecting it in the $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion range. But since House committees just finished crafting a $3.5 trillion version of the package, a smaller price tag means some priorities would have to be trimmed.
TAXES
To pay for much of the bill, the House Ways and Means Committee approved $2.1 trillion in tax boosts, mostly on the rich and corporations. Some details and numbers seem likely to change.
Biden, who's promised to not increase taxes on people earning under $400,000, will probably get his proposal to raise the top individual income tax rate on the richest Americans to 39.6%. That would be up from 37% approved under former President Donald Trump.
But Democrats also want to raise other levies on the wealthiest. It's unclear which proposals will survive and in what form.
For example, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden, D-Ore., has expressed interest in boosting taxes on the value of some large estates that heirs inherit. Ways and Means Chairman Richard Neal, D-Mass., omitted that from his panel's plan.
Democrats want to provide tax credits for children, health care and child care costs and low-income workers. If the bill's size shrinks, Democrats might save money by delaying, gradually phasing in or out or limiting some of those breaks. Some moderates say a proposed tax credit for buying electric vehicles shouldn't go to higher-earning people.
Biden wants to raise the 21% corporate tax rate to 28% but may have to settle for around 25%. Democrats face other differences over taxes on corporate foreign income and stock buybacks.
MEDICARE
Three moderate Democrats blocked a House committee from approving a top priority for Biden and progressives: saving hundreds of billions by letting Medicare negotiate lower prices for pharmaceuticals it buys. Another committee approved the language, so it's not dead.
Still, the plan is opposed by drug manufacturers and some moderates want to water it down.
Democrats planned to use the savings to pay for another progressive goal: new dental, vision and hearing Medicare coverage. If the drug-pricing language is diluted and produces less savings, it's unclear how the Medicare expansion would be financed.
SALT AND IRS
In a town that loves acronyms, SALT, shorthand for state and local taxes, is on the table.
Democrats from high-tax coastal communities are demanding an increase in the current $10,000 limit on deductions taxpayers can claim for state and local taxes they pay.
With Pelosi unable to afford losing more than three Democratic votes, many think that deduction ceiling will be increased. To make up for the lost revenue, the IRS could be given extra money or banks might be required to report more financial transaction information to the IRS, ideas aimed at bolstering tax collections.
OTHER PRIORITIES
The House has proposed grants for power companies that move toward renewable fuels and fines on those that don't, a pillar of the chamber's climate change agenda. Manchin, chairman of the Senate energy committee and a fierce defender of his state's coal industry, has told colleagues he opposes that.
The House has proposed a plan for mandatory family leave that's significantly costlier than what Senate Democrats envision. And lawmakers await a decision from the Senate parliamentarian on whether language helping millions of immigrants remain in the U.S. violates budget rules and must be omitted.
TIMING
Last month, Pelosi told moderates that the House would consider their top priority, a separate $1 trillion bill financing road and other infrastructure projects, by Sept. 27.
In what seems a mutual political suicide pact, progressives have threatened to vote against that bill unless unenthusiastic moderates support the $3.5 trillion package. Ideally, Democratic leaders would love for both bills to be voted on together.
With so many loose ends, it seems highly unlikely the $3.5 trillion measure will be finished then. That's raised questions about how Pelosi will keep her party's antagonistic wings supportive of each other's priority bills and how she will shepherd both to passage.
DEMOCRATS' TWO SECRET WEAPONS
For one thing, a collapse of the effort would mean a jarring failure to enact their highest priorities, weakening their bid to retain their congressional majorities in next year's elections. Every Democrat knows that.
Another is Pelosi herself, who's proven deft at holding Democrats together and squeezing out votes she needs.
House Budget Committee Chairman John Yarmuth, D-Ky., cited both factors in an interview last week, describing what he tells Democrats.
“I’ve said everybody should be posturing and doing the best you can to stand up for your priorities, but in the final analysis you’re going to vote for this thing," Yarmuth said. “And by the way, have you met Nancy Pelosi?”