加州萨克拉门托——这是加州召回观察人士熟悉的一句话:2021年不是2003年。
是的，该州再次处于召回状态选举这可能会让民主党州长下台。但如今的加州选民看起来与18年前大不相同:共和党人少了，拉丁裔和亚裔多了，而且更年轻了——只要加文·纽瑟姆能让他的选民投票，所有这些趋势都有利于他。
南加州大学包容性民主中心主任、选民和选民方面的专家明迪·罗梅罗(Mindy Romero)表示:“纽森一直是靠数字取胜的，他知道这一点。
提前投票已经进行了几周，到目前为止已经投了700多万张选票。投票的最后一天是星期二。
选票上有两个问题:纽森是否应该被召回，如果应该，谁应该取代他?如果大多数人希望他下台，那么在替换选票上获得最多支持的46个候选人将成为州长。几乎可以肯定是共和党，因为没有一个有政治地位的民主党人参选。保守派脱口秀主持人拉里·埃尔德在民调中一直领先。
召回开始于业余共和党政治组织者的努力，他们对纽森在移民、犯罪和其他问题上的立场感到不安。但是冠状病毒大流行，以及对商业和学校关闭的失望，让它出现在选票上。
2003年，民主党人格雷·戴维斯成为第一位被召回的加州州长。他刚刚开始他的第二个任期，选民们对能源危机感到焦虑，这场危机导致了持续的停电、迫在眉睫的税费上涨和糟糕的经济。共和党人阿诺德·施瓦辛格参加了竞选，轻松获胜。
当时，近1500万登记选民中约有900万人参加了竞选。大约有400万人支持戴维斯，占44%。在谁应该接替他的问题上，施瓦辛格获得了大约420万张选票。
当时，大约35%的选民是注册的共和党人，43%是民主党人，16%不在一个党内。
如今，加州有2200万注册选民，但共和党声称只有四分之一的选民，因为注册人数基本保持不变，徘徊在500万以上。与此同时，民主党增加了300万选民，还有260万人是无党派人士。
根据罗梅罗提供的数据，拉丁裔选民现在占登记选民的四分之一以上，而2003年为17.5%。亚洲选民的比例也有所增加，目前为10.4%。随着这些人口群体的增长，总体选民更加年轻。
“并不是婴儿潮一代是从另一个州搬到加州的拉丁裔和亚裔美国人。这些人是在这个州出生和长大的，他们正在成为选民，”洛杉矶加州大学拉丁裔政策和政治倡议的创始主任索尼娅·迪亚兹说。
所有这些趋势都应该有利于民主党，他们在过去20年里只是加强了对该州的控制。自2006年施瓦辛格赢得第二个任期以来，加州人还没有选出一名共和党人来竞选公职，而民主党人今天在州议会两院都占据绝对多数。
迪亚兹说，尽管前共和党总统唐纳德·特朗普在2016年至2020年期间增加了对拉丁裔的支持，但拉丁裔人口仍然非常支持加州的民主党人。
但是迪亚兹说，该党不能认为拉丁裔选民是理所当然的，尤其是当他们作为投票集团的权力扩大时。拉丁裔现在占加州近4000万人口的40%，比任何其他种族或民族都多。然而，他们比其他群体更不可能投票。
竞选活动通常集中在可能的选民身上，这通常意味着有参与记录的人。迪亚兹说，尽管关注这些选民肯定有助于候选人在短期内获胜，但民主党应该想出一个长期策略，让非白人选民成为定期参与者。
最近的民意调查显示，纽森准备击败召回，民主党的早期选民投票率很高，尽管这两项都不能保证纽森会赢。到目前为止，18到34岁的拉丁裔和选民的投票率低得不成比例。那个年龄组的600万选民中，没有一个人到了在2003年选举中投票的年龄。
纽森将这场竞选变成了一场高度党派之争，他将罢免的支持者称为极端共和党人，以努力确保该州的民主党选民不仅支持他，还会到场投票。他把注意力集中在埃尔德身上，他有自由意志主义倾向，不支持堕胎权或最低工资，以及大多数加州人支持的其他政策。
纽森星期五在萨克拉门托的一个早期投票中心投票后说，在竞选的最后几天里，他没有把任何事情视为理所当然。
“我只是专注于做好这项工作，鼓励人们在这个关键时刻走出去，走出我们的基地，”他说。
California voters: Less Republican and white than in 2003
SACRAMENTO, Calif. -- It's a familiar refrain among California's recall watchers: 2021 is not 2003.
Yes, the state again is in the middle of a recallelectionthat could remove the Democratic governor from office. But today's California electorate looks far different than it did 18 years ago: It's less Republican, more Latino and Asian, and younger — all trends that favor Gov. Gavin Newsom, so long as he can get his voters to turn out.
“Newsom has always had it by the numbers, and he knows that," said Mindy Romero, director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy at the University of Southern California and an expert in voters and the electorate.
Early voting has been going on for weeks and more than 7 million ballots have been cast so far. The final day to vote is Tuesday.
There are two questions on the ballot: Should Newsom be recalled and, if so, who should replace him? If a majority wants him gone, whoever gets the most support among the 46 names on the replacement ballot will become governor. It would almost certainly be a Republican since no Democrat with political standing is running. Conservative talk radio host Larry Elder has been leading in polls.
The recall began as an effort driven by amateur Republican political organizers upset by Newsom's positions on immigration, crime and other issues. But the coronavirus pandemic, and frustrations over business and school closures, got it on the ballot.
In 2003, Democrat Gray Davis became the first California governor to get recalled. He had just begun his second term and voters were agitated over an energy crisis that had led to rolling power outages, looming tax and fee increases and a poor economy. Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger jumped into the race and won handily.
Back then, about 9 million of nearly 15 million registered voters participated in the race. Roughly 4 million backed Davis, or 44%. On the question of who should replace him, Schwarzenegger got about 4.2 million votes.
At the time, about 35% of voters were registered Republicans, 43% were Democrats and 16% weren't in a party.
Today, California has 22 million registered voters but the Republican Party claims just a quarter of the electorate because registration numbers have remained essentially flat, hovering above 5 million. Democrats, meanwhile, have added 3 million voters, and 2.6 million more people are independents.
Latino voters now make up more than a quarter of registered voters compared to 17.5% in 2003, according to data provided by Romero. Asian voters also increased their share, now at 10.4%. As those demographic groups have grown, the overall electorate is younger.
“It's not like it's Baby Boomers that are Latinos and Asian Americans moving from another state to California. These are people born and bred in this state and they are aging into the electorate," said Sonja Diaz, founding director of the Latino Policy & Politics Initiative at the University of California, Los Angeles.
All of those trends should benefit Democrats, who have only strengthened their hold on the state over the past two decades. Californians haven't elected a Republican to elected office since 2006, when Schwarzenegger won a second term, and Democrats today hold supermajorities in both houses of the state Legislature.
Though former Republican President Donald Trump increased his support among Latinos between 2016 and 2020, the Latino population still heavily favors Democrats in California, Diaz said.
But Diaz said the party can't be taking Latino voters for granted, particularly as their power as a voting bloc expands. Latinos now make up 40% of California's population of nearly 40 million people, more than any other racial or ethnic group. Yet they are less likely to vote than other groups.
Campaigns often focus on likely voters, which usually means people with a track record of participating. Though a focus on those voters certainly helps candidates win in the short term, the Democratic Party should be thinking out a long-term strategy for turning non-white voters into regular participants, Diaz said.
Recent polling shows Newsom poised to defeat the recall and early voter turnout is strong for Democrats, though neither guarantee that Newsom will win. Turnout so far among Latinos and voters 18 to 34 is disproportionately low. None of the 6 million voters in that age group were old enough to vote in the 2003 election.
Newsom has turned the race into a highly partisan one, branding the recall’s supporters as extreme Republicans in an effort to ensure the state’s Democratic voters not only stick with him, but show up to vote. He’s focused his attention on Elder, who has a libertarian bent and does not support abortion rights or the minimum wage, among other policies supported by most Californians.
Newsom, after voting Friday in Sacramento at an early vote center, said he's taking nothing for granted in the race's final days.
“I’m just focused on doing the job, encouraging folks to turn out and to get our base out at this critical juncture,” he said.
