洛杉矶——加州下一任州长可能是一名黑人保守派，他将取消州疫苗和口罩的授权，对枪支管制持批评态度，质疑美国系统性种族主义的概念，并反对最低工资，因为他说这践踏了自由市场。
共和党人拉里·埃尔德在9月14日的罢免中迅速崛起选举这可能会让民主党州长加文·纽瑟姆下台，在这个被视为民主党堡垒和国家展示气候变化、移民和移民自由政策的州，这是一个引人注目的转变卫生保健。
埃尔德是一名脱口秀主持人，纽森认为他在大选中面临的最大威胁是紧张。埃尔德承诺要扭转加州的进步趋势，他将此归咎于持续不断的无家可归危机赋税他说，犯罪率飙升和政府正悄悄进入人们的生活和生计——从“反科学”冠状病毒的命令到缓慢行走的住房建设的法规。
有一种说法是，未来首先发生在加州，埃尔德潜在的历史性胜利可能会产生广泛的影响，因为2022年大选即将到来，将决定国会的控制权。
长老的胜利也将引发与萨克拉门托民主党州立法多数党的权力斗争，从政府任命到如何花费数十亿纳税人的钱。
在加州，“年轻的家庭正在离开，汽油税正在上涨，这位州长要么不称职，要么漠不关心，”埃尔德说，他将成为美国人口最多的州的第一位黑人州长。“他得走了。”
再过一年，这位魅力非凡的长者在民主党占主导地位的加州的候选人资格可能会成为一个注脚——自2006年以来，共和党从未在全州范围内赢得过竞选，民主党选民的人数以近2比1的比例超过共和党。去年，前总统唐纳德·特朗普以超过500万张选票的优势将该州输给了乔·拜登。
但罕见的夏末罢免选举背后的不寻常数学可能会颠覆预期。
多年来，共和党人一直设想，危机的汇合可能会导致共和党总统理查德·尼克松(Richard Nixon)和罗纳德·里根(Ronald Reagan)所在的州的领导层发生摇摆。
邮寄选票于8月中旬寄出。他们是在COVID再次激增，许多选民愤怒并寻找责任人的时候被送回的。
召回是由对纽森关闭企业和学校的大流行规则的厌倦推动的，但也受到从对不断扩大的无家可归者营地的沮丧到飙升的住房成本的不满的支持。
共和党的机会在于罢免选举的非典型规则。
选票上有两个问题:第一，纽森应该被移除，是还是不是?如果大多数人同意罢免他，他的继任者就是在第二个问题上获得最多选票的人。有46名候选人，获胜者可以得到25%或更少。
对于共和党来说，这是一个难得的机会，在这个州，民主党人占据着全州的每一个职位，并主导着立法机构和国会代表团。共和党人只占注册选民的24%，但罢免的力度让埃尔德和其他保守派候选人将竞选活动的目标对准了能够提供足够优势的右翼选民。
“长者”很快盖过了共和党的竞争对手，包括商人约翰·考克斯、州议员凯文·凯利、前圣地亚哥市长凯文·福尔克纳以及前奥运和真人秀明星凯特琳·詹娜。
纽森成功地让杰出的民主党人退出了投票，尽管YouTube名人凯文·帕夫拉特已经成为纽森政党内的潜在竞争者。
69岁的埃尔德作为第一次候选人来说是个后来者，他远非家喻户晓。然而，多年来，他一直是保守派圈子里的名人，因为他挑衅性的广播节目对许多电台来说都是保守派声音阵容的一部分，包括艾尔德的导师丹尼斯·普雷格。埃尔德在好莱坞星光大道上有一个明星，在社交媒体上有近200万粉丝。
这位自诩为“中南部圣人”的人——指的是他成长的洛杉矶附近的粗糙地带——精力充沛，掩盖了他的年龄。当争论观点时，他可以像律师一样自信地说话——埃尔德是密歇根大学法学院1977年的毕业生，并获得了布朗大学的本科学位。
可以说，埃尔德自7月12日参加竞选以来最大的头条是一个不受欢迎的头条——他的前未婚妻亚历山德拉·达蒂格(Alexandra Datig)声称他在2015年的一次争吵中情绪失控，并向她展示了一把枪，埃尔德否认了这一说法。
然而，这些指控似乎并没有减缓他的竞选轨迹。上周，他推出了包括共和党全国委员会成员肖恩·斯蒂尔和前民主党州参议院领袖格洛丽亚·罗梅罗在内的代言，罗梅罗和埃尔德一样支持特许学校。
他的政治观点反映了一种自由意志主义的心态，这种心态会引起进步选民的反感——他认为政府已经变得太大、太干预、太昂贵。
他反对他所认为的政府过度干预，因此他反对全面的口罩授权和最低工资。他批评了1973年美国最高法院划时代的“罗伊诉韦德”案，该案使堕胎在全国合法化，他认为这种限制应该留给各州。
对埃尔德来说，气候变化是真实存在的，但他也警告不要发动“石油和天然气战争”，不要过快地转向可再生能源经济，他说这将导致工作岗位流失，无法维持正常运转。
他对种族的看法经常使他与其他黑人发生冲突。埃尔德对黑人的命也是命运动持批评态度，他称种族配额是“拐杖和逃避”他反对“解散”警察的努力。在1995年接受《橘子郡登记簿》采访时，他说，“我们必须停止抱怨、呻吟、哀嚎、哭泣，停止将一切归咎于白人。”
黑人民主党领导人最近举行了一次活动，谴责他的种族观点。
“他可能看起来像我们，他可能说话像我们，但他不是我们中的一员，”负责监督州税征收的加州均衡委员会成员玛丽亚·科恩(Malia Cohen)说。
四面楚歌的纽森称埃尔德“在许多方面比特朗普更极端。”
从一开始，民主党人就试图将罢免努力与这位前总统联系起来，这位前总统在其保守派基础之外在该州广受欢迎。
埃尔德驳斥了他是特朗普镜像的说法，指出他在贸易上与特朗普决裂——埃尔德不同意前总统施加的关税和其他限制——并认为特朗普削减阿富汗驻军水平是错误的。
民主党民调专家本·图尔钦表示，纽森对埃尔德的持续关注并不令人意外。它允许州长通过“给另一个选择一张脸”，从自己任期的公投中重新选择竞选。
图尔钦说:“如果没有明确的替代方案，加文和民主党人很难说‘反对召回’，因为这是一件不确定的事情。"现在，他可以支持埃尔德从党派的角度来定义这场比赛."
由于邮寄选票已经被退回，这场竞争仍然充满了未知因素，包括谁会费心在通常被安排在非选举年的选举中投票。
老年人可能会从州投票模式中鲜为人知的皱纹中受益。加州有自由主义倾向，但并不总是如此。
2020年，选民拒绝了一项有组织的劳工支持的尝试，即部分取消该州几十年来的财产税上限，并恢复平权行动，而共和党人在美国众议院的四个席位中驱逐了民主党人。
埃尔德说，考虑到纽森筹集无限资金的能力，他认为这场比赛很漫长。但他认为，他是唯一有可能在下个月带来惊人惊喜的共和党人。
“除了我，我认为没有人能赢，”他说。
GOP's Larry Elder looks for shock win in California recall
LOS ANGELES -- California’s next governor could be a Black conservative who would erase state vaccine and mask mandates, is critical of gun control, disputes the notion of systemic racism in America and opposes the minimum wage because he says it tramples the free market.
The rapid ascent of Republican Larry Elder in the Sept. 14 recallelectionthat could remove Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is a striking turn in a state regarded as a Democratic fortress and national showcase for liberal policies on climate change, immigration andhealth care.
Elder is a talk radio host who Newsom identifies as his biggest threat in an election widely acknowledged as tight. Elder is promising to reverse California's progressive drift that he blames for an unrelenting homeless crisis, hightaxes, spiking crime rates and government creep into people’s lives and livelihoods — from “anti-science” coronavirus mandates to regulations he says slow-walk housing construction.
There is a saying that the future happens first in California, and Elder's potentially historic victory could have broad implications, coming on the threshold of 2022 elections that will decide control of Congress.
An Elder win would also trigger a power struggle with Sacramento's Democratic state legislative majority over everything from government appointments to how to spend billions of taxpayer dollars.
In California “young families are leaving, the taxes are going up on gasoline and this governor is either incompetent or indifferent,” says Elder, who would become the first Black governor of the nation's most populous state. “He’s got to go.”
In another year, the charismatic Elder’s candidacy in heavily Democratic California might be a footnote — the GOP hasn't won a statewide race since 2006 and Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by nearly 2-to-1. Former President Donald Trump lost the state to Joe Biden last year by more than 5 million votes.
But the unusual math that underlies the rare, late-summer recall election could upend the expected.
For years, Republicans have envisioned that a confluence of crises might result in a pendulum swing in leadership in a state that was home to — and voted for — Republican Presidents Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan.
Mail-in ballots went out in mid-August. They are being returned at a time when COVID again is spiking and many voters are angry and looking for someone to blame.
The recall was driven by weariness over Newsom's whipsaw pandemic rules that closed businesses and schools, but it's buttressed by grievances that range from frustration with sprawling homeless encampments to soaring housing costs.
The GOP's chances rest in the atypical rules of the recall election.
There are two questions on the ballot: First, should Newsom be removed, yes or no? If a majority agrees to oust him, his successor is whoever gets the most votes on the second question. With 46 candidates, the winner could get 25% or less.
It's a rare opportunity for the GOP in a state where Democrats hold every statewide office and dominate the Legislature and congressional delegation. Republicans account for only 24% of registered voters, but the dynamics of the recall have allowed Elder and other conservative candidates to target their campaigns at right-leaning voters who could provide a sufficient winning edge.
Elder quickly overshadowed a field of GOP rivals that include businessman John Cox, state Assemblyman Kevin Kiley, former San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer and former Olympian and reality TV personality Caitlyn Jenner.
Newsom was successful in keeping prominent Democrats off the ballot, though YouTube personality Kevin Paffrath has emerged as a potential contender within Newsom's party.
At 69, Elder is a latecomer as a first-time candidate and he’s far from a household name. However, he’s been a celebrity within conservative circles for years through his provocative radio show that for many stations is part of lineup of conservative voices that includes Elder's mentor, Dennis Prager. Elder has a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame and counts nearly 2 million followers on social media.
The self-styled “Sage of South Central” –- a reference to the rough Los Angeles neighborhood where he grew up -- is taut with energy that belies his age. When arguing points, he can talk with the rapid-fire certitude of the lawyer that he is — Elder is a 1977 graduate of the University of Michigan Law School, and received an undergraduate degree from Brown University.
Arguably Elder’s biggest headline since entering the race July 12 was an unwelcome one – a former fiancee, Alexandra Datig, alleged he was emotionally abusive and showed her a gun during an argument in 2015, a claim Elder denies.
However, the allegations do not appear to have slowed his campaign’s trajectory. He rolled out endorsements last week that included GOP national Committeeman Shawn Steel and former Democratic state Senate leader Gloria Romero, who favors charter schools, as does Elder.
His political views reflect a libertarian mindset that would elicit cringes among progressive voters — he believes government has grown too big, too intrusive, too costly.
He stands opposed to what he sees as government overreach, hence his opposition to sweeping mask mandates and the minimum wage. He’s been critical of Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 U.S. Supreme Court ruling that legalized abortion nationwide, arguing that such restrictions should be left to states.
To Elder, climate change is real but he also warns against a “war on oil and gas” and shifting too quickly into a renewable-energy economy, which he says would cost jobs and fail to keep the lights on.
His views on race often have put him at odds with other Blacks. Elder is critical of the Black Lives Matter movement, and he has called racial quotas a “a crutch and a cop-out.” He opposes efforts to “defund” police. In a 1995 interview with The Orange County Register he said, “We have to stop bitching and moaning and whining and crying and blaming the white man for everything.”
Black Democratic leaders recently held an event to denounce his views on race.
“He may look like us, he may talk like us, but he is not one of us,” said Malia Cohen, a member of the California State Board of Equalization, which oversees collection of state taxes.
The embattled Newsom has called Elder “more extreme than Trump in many respects.”
From the start, Democrats have sought to link the recall effort to the former president, who is widely unpopular in the state outside his conservative base.
Elder rejects the notion that he’s a mirror image of Trump, noting that he's broken with him on trade — Elder disagreed with tariffs and other restrictions imposed by the former president — and also thought Trump erred by cutting Afghanistan troop levels.
Newsom’s steady focus on Elder isn’t a surprise, says Democratic pollster Ben Tulchin. It allowed the governor to recast the race from a referendum on his own tenure by “putting a face on the alternative.”
“Without a clear alternative, it was hard for Gavin and the Democrats to say, ’Oppose the recall,' because it’s such an amorphous thing,” Tulchin said. “Now, he can hold up Elder to define the race on partisan terms.”
With mail-in ballots already being returned, the contest remains heavy with unknowns, including who will bother to vote in an election scheduled in what is normally an off-election year.
Elder might benefit from little-noticed wrinkles in state voting patterns. California has a liberal tilt, but not always.
Voters in 2020 rejected an organized labor-backed attempt to partially dismantle the state’s decades-old cap on property taxes, as well as reinstate affirmative action, while Republicans ousted Democrats in four U.S. House seats.
Elder says he considers the race a longshot, given Newsom’s ability to raise unlimited funds. But he believes he’s the only Republican likely to deliver a stunning surprise next month.
“I don’t think anybody can win except for me,” he says.
