当西方外交官赶到喀布尔机场时塔利班上周末占领了这座城市，俄罗斯驻那里的大使馆仍然明显开放，并宣布其外交官将照常工作。
这是一个迹象，表明俄罗斯现在正试图顺利过渡到与掌权的激进分子合作，尽管似乎对塔利班接管世界其他地区的速度感到惊讶。
到目前为止，俄罗斯官员积极评价塔利班，称赞他们维护了首都的秩序。尽管俄罗斯表示不会急于承认该组织为阿富汗政府，但它已经表示准备与他们接触。
“塔利班运动目前几乎控制了该国的全部领土，包括其首都。这些都是现实，”俄罗斯总统普京在周五与德国领导人安格拉·默克尔的新闻发布会上说。“我们应该基于这些现实采取行动，不允许阿富汗国家分裂。”
俄罗斯官员严厉批评了美国支持的阿什拉夫·加尼政府，本周俄罗斯负责监督其阿富汗政策的高级特使、资深外交官扎米尔·卡布洛夫将塔利班比作前政府。
“如果你比较同事和合作伙伴达成协议的能力，那么在我看来，塔利班长期以来比喀布尔傀儡政府更有能力。”卡布洛夫告诉俄罗斯国家电视台。
过去几年，随着美国撤军的可能性越来越大，俄罗斯与塔利班建立了牢固的联系。它已经举办了几轮莫斯科阿富汗内部会谈其中包括塔利班。今年7月，一个塔利班高级代表团会见了俄罗斯外交部长谢尔盖·拉夫罗夫，尽管俄罗斯仍像美国一样，正式将该组织定为恐怖组织。
在苏联自己对阿富汗进行灾难性干预30年后，俄罗斯最关心的是阿富汗的不稳定不会蔓延到其中亚邻国塔吉克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦，也不会再次成为国际恐怖组织发动袭击的基地。
分析人士表示，俄罗斯政府的首要任务是确保与塔利班达成谅解，即莫斯科愿意作为统治者与他们接触，前提是他们为中亚提供安全保障，并承诺防止来自其领土的恐怖袭击。
外交政策专家、外交和国防政策委员会主席费奥多尔·卢基扬诺夫(Fyodor Lukyanov)表示:“绝对清楚的是，俄罗斯将努力与塔利班建立尽可能多的工作关系，该委员会有时会独立为俄罗斯政府提供建议。
“至于阿富汗的国内局势，幸运的是俄罗斯在那里没有利益。这次阿富汗内部没有利害关系，俄罗斯可以放松并限制其对该地区安全利益的反应，”他在电话中说。
卢基扬诺夫说，与混乱的内战相比，稳定的塔利班接管对克里姆林宫来说也是更可取的，即使这意味着回到该组织极度压抑的统治。但他表示，他预计俄罗斯不会急于正式承认塔利班，因为这将削弱其对该组织的影响力。
卡布洛夫本周告诉俄罗斯国家电视台，到目前为止，塔利班正在遵守他们与俄罗斯就中亚安全问题达成的协议。
“这是一个充满希望的迹象，”他说。“但我们当然信任别人，但不会信任到那种程度。我们将认真遵循接下来的步骤。”
最近几周，俄罗斯迅速采取行动支持塔吉克斯坦，向该国输送资金、武器并加强边境哨所。俄罗斯本月在阿富汗边境附近与塔吉克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦举行了军事演习。
“冒险的赌注”
本周美国战败的混乱画面引发了俄罗斯宣传中可预见的幸灾乐祸。自苏联耻辱性地从阿富汗撤军30年后，俄罗斯官员一直在幸灾乐祸。
克里姆林宫也很高兴看到美国军队在中亚的终结，这是一个长期目标。
不过，一些分析人士表示，问题在于塔利班是否会在阿富汗拥有足够的控制权，以继续执行莫斯科方面寻求的安全保障。
前俄罗斯外交官、现外交事务评论员弗拉基米尔·弗罗洛夫说:“到目前为止，我们可以享受一场宣传政变，但这可能不会持续太久。”。
俄罗斯的理想情况是，塔利班现在与其他阿富汗政治团体组成一个包容性政府，但莫斯科的许多分析人士认为这不太可能。记者基里尔·克里沃舍耶夫在为卡内基莫斯科中心撰写的一篇文章中写道，相反，“贩毒和宗教极端主义将迅速发展”。
弗罗洛夫说，这种不确定性意味着俄罗斯外交部可能会因公开对塔利班友好而走在自己前面。
弗罗洛夫说:“我认为，我们对塔利班稳定其控制下的国家、不参与跨境圣战的承诺下了一个冒险的赌注。
他说，外交部“必须证明他们的赌注是按照承诺进行的”。
Russia signals it's ready to engage with Taliban, experts say
As Western diplomats scrambled to Kabul airport while theTalibanoverran the city last weekend, Russia's embassy there remained demonstratively open and announced its diplomats would work as normal.
It was a sign of how, although seemingly surprised by the speed of the Taliban's takeover as the rest of the world, Russia is now trying to smoothly transition to working with the militants in power.
Russian officials have so far spoken positively of the Taliban, praising them for maintaining order in the capital. Although Russia has said it will not rush to recognize the group as Afghanistan's government, it has signaled it is ready to engage with them.
"The Taliban movement currently controls virtually the entire territory of the country, including its capital. These are realities," Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a press conference with Germany's leader Angela Merkel on Friday. "And we should act based on these very realities, not allowing the Afghan state's breakup."
Russian officials have castigated the fallen American-backed government of Ashraf Ghani and this week Russia's top envoy overseeing its Afghanistan policy, the veteran diplomat Zamir Kabulov, compared the Taliban favorably to the former government.
"If you compare the capacity to make agreements of colleagues and partners, then the Taliban have long seemed to me far more capable than the Kabul puppet government,"Kabulov told Russian state television.
Russia has built solid contacts with the Taliban in the past few years as a U.S. withdrawal appeared increasingly likely. It has hosted several rounds ofinter-Afghan talks in Moscowthat have included the Taliban. In July, a high-level Taliban delegation met with Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, even though Russia still formally designates the group a terrorist organization, as does the U.S.
Three decades after the Soviet Union's own disastrous intervention into Afghanistan, Russia's overriding concern is that instability in Afghanistan not spread to its Central Asian neighbors Tajikistan and Uzbekistan and that it not again become a base for international terrorist groups to launch attacks.
The Russian government's priority, analysts said, is to ensure an understanding with the Taliban that Moscow is content to engage with them as rulers provided they give security guarantees for Central Asia and pledge to prevent terrorist attacks from its territory.
"It is absolutely clear that Russia will try to have as working relationship with Taliban as possible," said Fyodor Lukyanov, a foreign policy expert and chairman of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy which sometimes independently advises the Russian government.
"As for the domestic situation in Afghanistan, Russia fortunately has no interests there. There are no stakes inside Afghanistan this time and Russia can relax and limit its reactions to the security interests of the region," he said by phone.
A stable Taliban takeover is also preferable to the Kremlin than a chaotic civil war, even if that means a return to the group's deeply repressive rule, Lukyanov said. But he said he expected Russia would not hurry to formally recognize the Taliban since it would weaken its leverage with the group.
Kabulov told Russian state television this week that so far, the Taliban was observing their agreements with Russia on security for Central Asia.
"It's a hopeful sign," he said. "But we are trusting people of course, but not to that degree. We will carefully follow next steps."
In recent weeks Russia has moved rapidly to bolster Tajikistan, where it has a military base, sending money, weapons and reinforcing border posts. Russia held military exercises this month with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan close to the Afghan border.
'A Risky Bet'
The chaotic images of American defeat this week have prompted predictable gloating in Russian propaganda. Thirty years on from the USSR's own humiliating military withdrawal from Afghanistan, there have been expressions of schadenfreude among Russian officials.
The Kremlin is also glad to see an end to American forces in Central Asia, a long-time goal.
The problem, though, some analysts said, is whether the Taliban will have enough control in Afghanistan to continue to enforce the security guarantees sought by Moscow.
"So far we have a propaganda coup to enjoy, but that may not last," said Vladimir Frolov, a former Russian diplomat and now foreign affairs commentator.
Russia's ideal scenario is that the Taliban now form an inclusive government with other Afghan political groups, but that is viewed as unlikely by many analysts in Moscow. Instead, "drug trafficking and religious extremism will mushroom," journalist, Kirill Krivosheev, wrote in an article for the Carnegie Moscow Center.
That uncertainty means that Russia's foreign ministry risks getting ahead of itself with its public friendliness toward the Taliban, Frolov said.
"I think we made a risky bet on Taliban promises to stabilize the country under their control and not engage in cross-border jihad," said Frolov.
The foreign ministry "will have to prove their bet worked out as promised," he said.
