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塔利班接管阿富汗:我们知道什么,下一步是什么

2021-08-18 09:21  ABC   - 

这塔利班在经历了代价高昂的20年战争后,美国即将完成撤军的两周前,他们在阿富汗夺取了政权。

随着由美国及其盟友训练和装备的阿富汗安全部队逐渐瓦解,叛乱分子在几天内席卷全国,占领了所有主要城市。

让我们来看看发生了什么,接下来会发生什么:

阿富汗正在发生什么?

塔利班,一个在20世纪90年代后期统治这个国家的激进组织,再次控制了这个国家。

2001年美国领导的对阿富汗的入侵将叛乱分子赶下台,但他们从未离开。在他们最近几天在全国范围内发动闪电战后,统治了这个国家20年的西方支持的政府垮台了。阿富汗人担心未来,跑到机场,这是离开这个国家的最后一条路线。

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为什么人们要逃离这个国家?

他们担心国家会陷入混乱,或者塔利班会对那些与美国人或政府合作的人进行报复袭击。

许多人还担心,塔利班将重新对伊斯兰法律实施严厉的解释,而他们在1996年至2001年统治阿富汗时曾依赖这些法律。那时,妇女被禁止上学或外出工作。他们不得不穿着无所不包的罩袍,每次出门都要有男性亲属陪同。塔利班禁止音乐,砍掉小偷的手,并向通奸者投掷石块。

近年来,塔利班一直试图将自己标榜为一支更温和的力量。自接管以来,他们承诺尊重妇女权利,原谅那些反对她们的人,并防止阿富汗被用作恐怖袭击的基地。但是许多阿富汗人对这些承诺持怀疑态度。

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喀布尔机场发生了什么?

成千上万的阿富汗人涌向那里,希望逃离这个国家,因为他们害怕塔利班的统治会带来什么。

有些人非常绝望,他们紧紧抓住一架军用喷气式飞机起飞的一侧,然后纵身一跃而死。美军使用直升机试图驱散人群,并向空中鸣枪示警。美国官员说,至少有7人在混乱中丧生。

———

为什么塔利班现在接管了?

可能是因为美军将在本月底撤离。

几年来,美国一直试图摆脱阿富汗这场持续时间最长的战争。

美国军队在几个月内驱逐了塔利班,当时他们入侵并铲除了基地组织,该组织在塔利班的庇护下策划了9/11袭击。但事实证明,要守住领土、重建一个饱受战争蹂躏的国家,难度更大。

随着美国的重心转移到伊拉克,塔利班开始重组,近年来接管了阿富汗大部分农村地区。

去年,时任总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布了撤军计划,并与塔利班签署了一项协议,限制了美国对他们的军事行动。总统乔·拜登随后宣布最后一支部队将于8月底撤离。

随着最后期限的临近,塔利班开始了闪电般的进攻,占领了一座又一座城市。

———

为什么阿富汗安全部队会崩溃?

简短的回答?腐败。

二十年来,美国及其北约盟国花费数十亿美元训练和装备阿富汗安全部队。但是西方支持的政府腐败成风。指挥官夸大士兵数量以吸走资源,战场上的部队经常缺乏弹药、补给甚至食物。

当美国显然要撤离时,他们的士气进一步下降。随着塔利班在最近几天的快速推进,整个部队在短暂的战斗后投降,喀布尔和附近的一些省份不战而降。

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阿富汗总统怎么了?

他逃走了。

当塔利班席卷全国时,阿什拉夫·加尼总统蹲下身子,很少发表公开声明。周日,当他们到达首都时,他离开了阿富汗,说他选择离开是为了避免进一步的流血。不清楚他去了哪里。

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拜登说了什么?

拜登称阿富汗局势“令人揪心”,但拒绝对正在发生的事情负责。虽然他承认阿富汗政府的崩溃比他预期的要快得多,但他说,他“坚决支持”自己撤出美军的决定。

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为什么人们把阿富汗比作西贡的陷落?

1975年北越军队攻陷西贡标志着越南战争的结束。在成千上万的美国人和他们的越南盟友被直升机空运出城后,它成为了一个持久的失败象征。美国国务卿安东尼·布林肯拒绝与阿富汗进行任何比较,他说:“这显然不是西贡。”

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阿富汗接下来会发生什么?

不清楚。

塔利班表示,他们希望与其他派别组成一个“包容的伊斯兰政府”。他们正在与包括前政府领导人在内的高级政治家进行谈判。

他们承诺执行伊斯兰法律,但鼓励妇女加入政府,并表示他们将为几十年战争后恢复正常生活提供一个安全的环境。

但是许多阿富汗人不信任塔利班,担心他们的统治会是暴力和压迫性的。阿富汗人还担心,面对塔利班的推进,成千上万的囚犯被释放,安全部队被解散,从而导致安全崩溃。

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塔利班接管对女性意味着什么?

许多人担心这可能意味着权利的严重倒退。

自从塔利班被推翻以来,阿富汗妇女取得了重大进展。许多人担心他们将再次被限制在家中。塔利班表示,根据伊斯兰法律,妇女的权利将受到尊重,但没有提供太多细节。在整个穆斯林世界,妇女的地位各不相同,而且往往是在一个国家内。阿富汗一直非常保守,尤其是在大城市之外。

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塔利班会再次窝藏基地组织吗?

塔利班承诺防止阿富汗被用作袭击其他国家的基地,这是美国在2020年和平协议中提出的一项重要要求。

但是美国军方官员很担心。

今年早些时候,五角大楼的最高领导人表示,像基地组织这样的极端组织可能会在阿富汗重生,官员们现在警告说,这种组织的发展速度可能会比预期的快得多。

另一方面,过去20年的技术进步使美国能够将目标对准也门和索马里等国的可疑武装分子,而在这些国家,美国没有常驻部队。塔利班为他们在911袭击中的角色付出了沉重的代价,并可能希望在寻求巩固其统治的过程中避免重演。

阿富汗也是一个伊斯兰国组织分支的所在地,该组织近年来针对其什叶派少数民族发动了一波可怕的袭击。塔利班谴责了这种袭击,两个组织在领土问题上相互争斗,但塔利班政府是否愿意或有能力镇压伊斯兰国仍有待观察。
 

Taliban take over Afghanistan: What we know and what's next

TheTalibanhave seized power in Afghanistan two weeks before the U.S. was set to complete its troop withdrawal after a costly two-decade war.

The insurgents stormed across the country, capturing all major cities in a matter of days, as Afghan security forces trained and equipped by the U.S. and its allies melted away.

Here's a look at what happened and what comes next:

WHAT IS HAPPENING IN AFGHANISTAN?

The Taliban, a militant group that ran the country in the late 1990s, have again taken control.

The U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 ousted the insurgents from power, but they never left. After they blitzed across the country in recent days, the Western-backed government that has run the country for 20 years collapsed. Afghans, fearing for the future, raced to the airport, one of the last routes out of the country.

———

WHY ARE PEOPLE FLEEING THE COUNTRY?

They're worried that the country could descend into chaos or the Taliban could carry out revenge attacks against those who worked with the Americans or the government.

Many also fear the Taliban will reimpose the harsh interpretation of Islamic law that they relied on when they ran Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001. Back then, women were barred from attending school or working outside the home. They had to wear the all-encompassing burqa and be accompanied by a male relative whenever they went outside. The Taliban banned music, cut off the hands of thieves and stoned adulterers.

The Taliban have sought to present themselves as a more moderate force in recent years. Since taking over, they have promised to respect women’s rights, forgive those who fought against them and prevent Afghanistan from being used as a base for terror attacks. But many Afghans are skeptical of those promises.

———

WHAT HAPPENED AT THE KABUL AIRPORT?

Thousands of Afghans rushed there, hoping to escape the country because they fear what the Taliban's rule will bring.

Some were so desperate, they clung to the side of a military jet as it took off and then plunged to their deaths. U.S. troops used helicopters to try to disperse the crowds and fired warning shots in the air. At least seven people died in the chaos, U.S. officials said.

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WHY ARE THE TALIBAN TAKING OVER NOW?

Probably because U.S. troops are set to withdraw by the end of the month.

The U.S. has been trying to get out of Afghanistan, its longest war, for several years now.

American troops ousted the Taliban in a matter of months when they invaded to root out al-Qaida, which orchestrated the 9/11 attacks while being harbored by the Taliban. But it proved more difficult to hold territory and rebuild a nation battered by repeated wars.

As the U.S. focus shifted to Iraq, the Taliban began to regroup and in recent years took over much of the Afghan countryside.

Last year, then-PresidentDonald Trumpannounced a plan to pull out and signed a deal with the Taliban that limited U.S. military action against them. PresidentJoe Bidenthen announced that the last troops would leave by the end of August.

As the final deadline drew close, the Taliban began a lightning offensive, overrunning city after city.

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WHY DID THE AFGHAN SECURITY FORCES COLLAPSE?

The short answer? Corruption.

The U.S. and its NATO allies spent billions of dollars over two decades to train and equip Afghan security forces. But the Western-backed government was rife with corruption. Commanders exaggerated the number of soldiers to siphon off resources, and troops in the field often lacked ammunition, supplies or even food.

Their morale further eroded when it became clear the U.S. was on its way out. As the Taliban rapidly advanced in recent days entire units surrendered after brief battles, and Kabul and some nearby provinces fell without a fight.

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WHAT HAPPENED TO THE PRESIDENT OF AFGHANISTAN?

He fled.

President Ashraf Ghani hunkered down and made few public statements as the Taliban swept across the country. On Sunday, as they reached the capital, he left Afghanistan, saying he had chosen to leave to avoid further bloodshed. It's not clear where he went.

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WHAT HAS BIDEN SAID?

Biden called the situation in Afghanistan “gut-wrenching” but rejected blame for what's happening. While he acknowledged that the collapse of the Afghan government happened much more quickly than he anticipated, he said he stood “squarely behind” his decision to pull U.S. troops out.

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WHY ARE PEOPLE COMPARING AFGHANISTAN TO THE FALL OF SAIGON?

The Fall of Saigon to North Vietnamese forces in 1975 marked the end of the Vietnam War. It became an enduring symbol of defeat after thousands of Americans and their Vietnamese allies were airlifted out of the city on helicopters. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has rejected any comparisons to Afghanistan, saying: “This is manifestly not Saigon.”

———

WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT IN AFGHANISTAN?

It's not clear.

The Taliban say they want to form an “inclusive, Islamic government” with other factions. They are holding negotiations with senior politicians, including leaders in the former government.

They have pledged to enforce Islamic law but encouraged women to join their government and say they will provide a secure environment for the return of normal life after decades of war.

But many Afghans distrust the Taliban and fear that their rule will be violent and oppressive. Afghans are also concerned about the breakdown of security after thousands of prisoners were freed and security forces melted away in the face of the Taliban advance.

———

WHAT DOES THE TALIBAN TAKEOVER MEAN FOR WOMEN?

Many fear it could mean a severe rollback of rights.

Afghan women have made major gains since the overthrow of the Taliban. Many are worried they will once again be confined to their homes. The Taliban have said women’s rights will be respected under Islamic law, without providing much detail. The status of women varies across the Muslim world and often within a single country. Afghanistan has always been very conservative, especially outside major cities.

———

WILL THE TALIBAN ONCE AGAIN HARBOR AL-QAIDA?

The Taliban have pledged to prevent Afghanistan from being used as a base for attacks on other countries, a key U.S. demand enshrined in the 2020 peace deal.

But American military officials are worried.

Earlier this year, the Pentagon’s top leaders said an extremist group like al-Qaida may be able to regenerate in Afghanistan, and officials are now warning that such groups could grow much faster than expected.

On the other hand, technological advances over the last 20 years allow the U.S. to target suspected militants in countries like Yemen and Somalia where it does not have a permanent troop presence. The Taliban paid a heavy price for their role in the Sept. 11 attacks and likely hope to avoid a repeat as they seek to consolidate their rule.

Afghanistan is also home to an Islamic State group affiliate that has carried out a wave of horrific attacks targeting its Shiite minority in recent years. The Taliban have condemned such attacks and the two groups have fought each other over territory, but it remains to be seen whether a Taliban government will be willing or able to suppress IS.

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