随着越来越多的人猜测美国可能很快陷入衰退，经济学家警告说，联邦预算赤字正在策划一个“不可持续”的过程。
国会预算办公室主任(CBO)表示，自上次预测的5月份以来，2019年赤字估计已飙升630亿美元。
该办公室在a昨天发表的报告正如其经济学家证实的那样，目前预计2020-2029年期间的累积赤字将比5月份高出8090亿美元。
联邦预算赤字是政府收入的短缺，发生在国家支出超过收入的时候。从根本上说，衰退是经济持续衰退的时期，经济活动连续两个季度大幅萎缩。
公众持有的联邦债务预计将从2019年占国内生产总值的79%增长到2029年的95%，这是二战后的最高水平。据CBO报道，到10月1日开始的下一财年，赤字将超过1万亿英镑。
CBO报告指出，2020年至2029年间，联邦预算赤字平均为1.2万亿美元，未来十年，赤字将“在国内生产总值的4.4%至4.8%之间波动”。这个数字远远高于过去50年的平均水平。
“国家的财政前景充满挑战，”CBO导演菲利普·世伟尔说同一天，特朗普总统继续在推特上淡化对衰退的担忧。
世伟尔继续说道:“按历史标准来看，联邦债务已经很高了，但这是不可持续的，预计在2029年后，由于人口老龄化、人均医疗保健支出的增长以及利息成本的上升，联邦债务将会上升得更高。”。
“要使其走上可持续发展的道路，立法者必须对税收和支出政策做出重大改变——让收入高于现行法律规定的水平，将支出削减至预计水平以下，或者采用这些方法的某种组合。”
2019年8月18日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在新泽西莫里斯镇登上空军一号前向媒体发表讲话。
当金融专家思考美国的经济命运时，三菱日联银行的首席金融经济学家克里斯·鲁普基说华盛顿邮报如果衰退站稳脚跟，国会和美联储将无法应对。“双方都没有子弹了，”他说。“我从未见过衰退云即将来临的情况，但华盛顿对应对经济衰退毫无准备。”
据报道CNBC白宫就经济问题发出了各种各样的信息。本周早些时候，特朗普猛烈抨击美联储及其主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，同时指责媒体试图“制造”美国经济衰退
总统写道:我们正在与许多利率低得多的国家竞争……唤醒美联储。这样的增长潜力，几乎是前所未有的！"
特朗普周末在新泽西对记者发表了类似的言论，称他“为一切做好了准备”，然后补充道:“我们做得非常好。”
与乐观相冲突的是，有线电视新闻网周一报道称，金融专家认为衰退的潜在可能性是“真实的和不断增长的”尽管经济依然稳健，专家们仍将对华贸易战和股市波动视为令人担忧的指标。
本月早些时候，美国银行(Bank of America)经济主管米歇尔·梅耶在给客户的一份报告中写道:“我们的官方模型显示，未来12个月经济衰退的可能性只有20%左右，但我们基于大量数据和事件的主观判断让我们相信，这种可能性更接近1/3。”这份预测性的报告是由CNBC首先报告的。
U.S. 'TOTALLY UNPREPARED' TO DEAL WITH RECESSION WARNS UNION BANK CHIEF ECONOMIST AS BUDGET DEFICIT TO EXCEED $1 TRILLION IN 2020
As speculation mounts that the U.S. could soon find itself in the grips of a recession, economists warn the federal budget deficit is plotting an "unsustainable" course.
The director of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has said the estimate for the 2019 deficit has spiked by $63 billion since May, the month of its last projections.
Long-term deficits are expected to be larger than previously projected, the office noted in a report published yesterday, as its economists confirmed that the projection of the cumulative deficit over the 2020–2029 period is now predicted to be $809 billion larger than it was in May.
The federal budget deficit is the shortfall of government income, and occurs when the nation's expenses exceed its revenue. At the basic level, a recession is a sustained period of economic decline when economic activity significantly shrinks over two consecutive quarters.
Federal debt held by the public is now projected to grow from 79 percent of GDP in 2019 to 95 percent in 2029, the highest level since just after World War II. By the next fiscal year, which starts October 1, the deficit will exceed £1 trillion, CBO reported.
The federal budget deficit averages $1.2 trillion between 2020 and 2029 and, over the coming decade, deficits will "fluctuate between 4.4 percent and 4.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)," the CBO report notes. That figure is well above the average over the past 50 years.
"The nation's fiscal outlook is challenging," said CBO director Phillip Swagel, the same day as president Trump continued to play down recession fears via his Twitter profile.
"Federal debt, which is already high by historical standards, is on an unsustainable course, projected to rise even higher after 2029 because of the aging of the population, growth in per capita spending on health care, and rising interest costs," Swagel continued.
"To put it on a sustainable course, lawmakers will have to make significant changes to tax and spending policies—making revenues larger than they would be under current law, reducing spending below projected amounts, or adopting some combination of those approaches."
US President Donald Trump speaks to the press before boarding Air Force One in Morristown, New Jersey, on August 18, 2019.
As financial experts mull over America's economic destiny, the chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank, Chris Rupkey, told The Washington Post that Congress and the Federal Reserve would be unable to combat a recession if it were to take hold. "Both sides are out of bullets," he said. "I've never seen a situation where there's a recession cloud on the horizon but Washington is totally unprepared to deal with a downturn in the economy."
As reported by CNBC, there have been mixed messages emerging from the White House on the topic of the economy. Earlier this week, Trump lashed out at the Federal Reserve and its chair Jerome Powell while accusing the media of attempting to "'create' a U.S. recession."
The president wrote: We are competing with many countries that have a far lower interest rate… Wake up Federal Reserve. Such growth potential, almost like never before!"
Trump made similar remarks to reporters in New Jersey over the weekend, saying that he was "prepared for everything" before adding: "We're doing tremendously well."
Conflicting with optimism, CNN reported Monday that financial experts believe that the potential of a recession is "real and growing." Despite a still-solid economy, experts cite the trade war with China and stock market volatility as indicators of concern.
Earlier this month, Bank of America's economics chief Michelle Meyer wrote in a note to clients: "Our official model has the probability of a recession over the next 12 months only pegged at about 20 percent, but our subjective call based on the slew of data and events leads us to believe it is closer to a 1-in-3 chance." The predictive note was first reported by CNBC.
