十多年来，面对以色列本杰明·内塔尼亚胡在世界舞台上。对于美国总统来说比尔·克林顿,巴拉克·奥巴马和唐纳德·特朗普作为以色列任期最长的总理，内塔尼亚胡是他们的搭档。

但是对总统来说乔·拜登，情况很可能不会是这样。

在连续12年执政后，总共15年，内塔尼亚胡处于被右翼、中间派和左翼政党执政联盟驱逐的边缘，其中首次包括一个阿拉伯政党。不同的反对者聚集在一起，主要是为了取代因腐败而受审的内塔尼亚胡，并结束以色列在短短两年内四次无结果的选举后不断重复的不稳定循环。

“两千年前，有一个犹太国家因为内部争吵而倒在这里。这不会再发生了——在我的任期内不会，”纳夫塔里·班尼特说，他是从新政府中获益最多的极右翼极端民族主义者。49岁的他将成为未来两年的以色列总理，接替他曾经的导师内塔尼亚胡的职位，他最近担任国防部长。在过去的两年里，班尼特将把总理的接力棒交给中间派Yair Lapid。

内塔尼亚胡任期的结束和班尼特新的多元化政府的崛起可能会重塑以色列，但不太可能显著改变美以关系。拜登承诺他对以色列安全的坚定承诺，即使在以色列最近与哈马斯在加沙发生11天冲突期间，来自国际社会和他自己政党的自由派的压力越来越大，他也不会动摇。

通过法新社/盖蒂图片社，文件

副总统乔·拜登和以色列总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡在赠送礼物时握手

随着白宫和国务院观察耶路撒冷的政治变化，他们发出信号，美国与以色列的联盟将在后内塔尼亚胡时代保持强大。

美国国务院发言人内德·普莱斯(Ned Price)周四在以色列国防部长本尼·甘茨(Benny Gantz)访问期间表示，“无论发生什么，无论政府成立与否，我们坚定的支持，我们对以色列的坚定支持将继续。”

但据几位以色列分析人士称，脆弱的联合政府，由右翼和中间派轮流担任总理，可能会对拜登更加恭顺，缺乏一个强大的右翼领导人来确保权力，并能够反击。贝内特可能比内塔尼亚胡公开更右翼，但他很难像他的前任那样控制政治议程和外交政策。班尼特的右翼亚米娜党将在议会中仅占7个席位，而内塔尼亚胡的利库德党作为最大的政党占据主导地位，拥有至少4倍的席位。

无论如何，预计以色列新政府将首先关注国内问题。随着冠状病毒大流行的出现，当务之急将是促进经济复苏、投资基础设施和弥合政治分歧，这些分歧的深度足以威胁到这个所谓的“变革”政府的迅速垮台。

“本届政府的所有潜在合作伙伴能够达成一致的唯一共同问题是，他们不想看到内塔尼亚胡担任总理。“没有内塔尼亚胡，这个政府就不会成立，”以色列民主研究所政治改革项目主任阿萨夫·沙皮拉说，他补充说，政府的成功“主要取决于领导人和政党之间关系的性质——以及合作的善意。”

前科技企业家贝内特反对建立巴勒斯坦国，支持以色列吞并西岸。他将自己定位在内塔尼亚胡的右边，并在进入国家政治之前担任代表西岸定居者的委员会主席。

罗南兹武隆/池通过美联社

亚米娜党领袖纳夫塔里·班尼特(左)在一次特别演讲中与叶什·阿提德党领袖雅伊尔·拉皮德交谈

尽管极端民族主义者班尼特掌权，但以色列、美国和世界各地的自由主义者都认为他的政府取得了进展。以色列历史上第一次，一个小型的阿拉伯伊斯兰政党将成为执政联盟的一部分。这是一种政治合作——甚至是一体化——的水平，这在权力的殿堂里是前所未有的。

本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在三月份的选举后需要四个席位后，第一次向阿拉伯党拉乌姆示好。在2015年因政治利益而妖魔化阿拉伯人后，内塔尼亚胡的转变帮助他的对手迈出了历史性的一步，将他们纳入政府。阿拉伯党将是政府中中间偏左集团的一部分，包括拉皮德的大党耶什·阿蒂德(Yesh Atid)，预计该党将限制任何针对西岸巴勒斯坦人的极右措施。

华盛顿近东政策研究所研究员大卫·马科夫斯基表示，这可能意味着“巴勒斯坦问题不会有重大突破，但也不会突然转向右翼”。

拜登的白宫将对此表示欢迎，特别是在其任期内如此迅速地面临中东危机，并对卷入棘手的、数十年之久的以色列-巴勒斯坦冲突表现出深深的犹豫。自由派倡导团体已经敦促政府利用他们所说的对新政府的更大影响力，阻止在以色列定居点建设，寻求与巴勒斯坦人的妥协，避免因将阿拉伯居民驱逐出东耶路撒冷而加剧紧张局势。谢赫贾拉附近的驱逐令引发了以色列和哈马斯之间最近一轮致命的战斗。以色列高等法院将在本月晚些时候对阿拉伯家庭的上诉做出裁决。

“虽然我们有充分的理由希望它在许多领域比它的前任更加温和和合理，但我们也不能指望它会采取行动结束不可容忍、不公正和不断恶化的无休止占领和反复发生的暴力的现状，”美国自由派犹太人倡导组织J Street的主席杰里米·本-阿米(Jeremy Ben-Ami)说。

新联盟的一些领导人也没有那么直言不讳地反对拜登恢复伊朗核协议的外交努力，包括蓝白党领导人、内塔尼亚胡国防部长甘茨，他将在新政府中保留这一职位。如果美国解除对伊朗的制裁，但前提是他的政府继续满足以色列的安全需求，这种温和的语气可能会给拜登带来美国所需的政治掩护。

塞巴斯蒂安·席耐尔/普尔/路透社

以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在向大使做简报时做手势

为此，美国对以色列的军事支持将继续有增无减，“包括在铁穹的补给方面。即使政府发生变化，这也不会改变，”普莱斯证实。

相比之下，一些进步的民主党人呼吁停止美国的军事援助，并呼吁调查以色列在上个月与哈马斯冲突期间对加沙进行空袭的战争罪。但就在本周，一个由美国议员组成的两党小组提出了一项价值10亿美元的以色列国防计划。

“美国的眼睛和耳朵是以色列，”共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆周一在耶路撒冷站在内塔尼亚胡旁边说。"没有人比我们在以色列的朋友更能保护美国免受激进伊斯兰教的伤害."

虽然华盛顿民主党内部的对话已经发生了变化，但恢复两党对以色列的大力支持是班尼特政府与内塔尼亚胡分歧的一种方式，内塔尼亚胡2014年在国会发表讲话谴责奥巴马与伊朗的核协议时留下了伤疤。在内塔尼亚胡的指导下，特朗普将美国对以色列的支持进一步推向右翼，包括确定以色列定居点本质上不是非法的，并承认以色列对戈兰高地和耶路撒冷作为其首都的主张。

相比之下，拉皮德经常谈到修复与民主党的关系，恢复两党对以色列的支持——他会在拜登身上找到合作伙伴。正如国务卿安东尼·布林肯(Antony Blinken)周三所说，拜登是以色列在国会的长期支持者之一，自以色列第四任果尔达·梅厄以来，他一直与每一位总理合作。

If Netanyahu ousted, what next for US-Israeli relations?

For over a decade, the face ofIsraelon the world stage has been Benjamin Netanyahu. For American presidentsBill Clinton,Barack ObamaandDonald Trump, Netanyahu was their partner as Israel's longest-serving prime minister.

But for PresidentJoe Biden, that likely won't be the case.

After 12 consecutive years in power, and 15 years in total, Netanyahu is on the brink of being ousted by a governing coalition of right-wing, centrist and left-wing parties, including for the first time an Arab party. The diverse group of opponents was brought together primarily by a desire to replace Netanyahu, who is on trial for corruption, and to end a destabilizing cycle of repeat Israeli elections after four inconclusive ones in just two years.

"Two thousand years ago, there was a Jewish state which fell here because of internal quarrels. This will not happen again -- not on my watch," said Naftali Bennett, the far-right ultranationalist who has the most to gain from the new government. At 49, he is set to become Israel's prime minister for the next two years, taking the job from his one-time mentor Netanyahu, whom he served under most recently as defense minister. Bennett will pass the baton of the premiership to centrist Yair Lapid for the last two years.

The end of Netanyahu's tenure and the rise of Bennett's new diverse government may reshape Israel, but it's unlikely to dramatically change U.S.-Israeli relations. Biden has pledged his firm commitment to Israel's security, not wavering even amid growing pressure from the international community and the liberal wing of his own party during Israel's recent 11-day conflict with Hamas in Gaza.

As the White House and State Department watch the political change unfolding in Jerusalem, they are signaling the U.S. alliance with Israel will remain strong in the post-Netanyahu era.

U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said Thursday during the visit of Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz, "Regardless of what happens, regardless of what government is in place, our stalwart support, our ironclad support for Israel will remain."

But the fragile coalition government, with alternating prime ministers from the right and center, may likely be more deferential to Biden, lacking a strong right-wing leader secure in power and able to push back, according to several Israeli analysts. Bennett may be openly more right-wing than Netanyahu, but it will be difficult for him to control the political agenda and foreign policy like his predecessor did. Bennett's right-wing Yamina party will command just seven seats in parliament, while Netanyahu's Likud party dominated as the largest party, with at least four times as many seats.

In any case, the new Israeli government is expected to focus first on domestic issues. As it emerges from the coronavirus pandemic, the priority will be boosting economic recovery, investing in infrastructure, and healing political divisions, which run deep enough to threaten the swift downfall of this so-called "change" government.

"The only common issue that all the potential partners for this government can agree upon is that they don't want to see Netanyahu as prime minister. Without Netanyahu, this government won't be formed," said Assaf Shapira, the director of the Political Reform Program at the Israel Democracy Institute, adding its success "depends mostly on the nature of the relations between the leaders and the parties -- and the goodwill to work together."

Bennett, a former tech entrepreneur, rejects the establishment of a Palestinian state and supports Israeli annexation of the West Bank. He's positioned himself to the right of Netanyahu and served as the head of the council representing West Bank settlers before entering national politics.

Despite ultranationalist Bennett at the helm, liberals in Israel, the U.S., and around the world see progress in his government. For the first time in Israeli history, a small Arab Islamist party will be part of the ruling coalition. It's a level of political cooperation -- even integration -- not seen before in the halls of power.

It was Benjamin Netanyahu who first courted the Arab Party Ra'am after needing their four seats following elections in March. After demonizing Arabs for his political gain back in 2015, Netanyahu's about-face helped his opponents take the historic step to include them in the government. The Arab party will be part of a centrist-left bloc in the government, including Lapid's large Yesh Atid party, that is expected to constrain any far-right steps against Palestinians in the West Bank.

That likely means there will be "no major leaps on Palestinian issues, but not lurches to right either," according to David Makovsky, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

The Biden White House would welcome that, especially after facing a Mideast crisis so quickly in its term and showing deep hesitancy to get involved in the intractable, decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Liberal advocacy groups are already urging the administration to use what they say is stronger leverage over this new government to discourage building in the Israeli settlements, seek compromises with the Palestinians, and avoid inflaming tensions with evictions of Arab residents from East Jerusalem. An eviction order in the neighborhood of Sheikh Jarrah helped spark the recent round of deadly fighting between Israel and Hamas. Israel's high court will rule later this month on the Arab families' appeal.

"While we have good reason to hope that it would be far more moderate and reasonable than its predecessor in many areas, we also cannot expect that it will act to end the intolerable, unjust and deteriorating status quo of endless occupation and recurring violence," said Jeremy Ben-Ami, president of J Street, a liberal Jewish advocacy organization in the U.S.

Some of the leaders in the new coalition have also been less vocal about their opposition to Biden's diplomatic efforts to return to the Iran nuclear deal, including Gantz, the Blue and White party leader and Netanyahu’s defense minister -- a position he will retain in the new government. That softer tone could give Biden needed political cover back in the U.S. if it lifts sanctions on Iran, but only if his administration continues to meet Israel's security needs, too.

To that end, the U.S. military support for Israel will continue unabated, "including when it comes to replenishment of the Iron Dome. Nothing about that will change even if there is a change in government," Price confirmed.

Some progressive Democrats, in contrast, have called for halting U.S. military assistance and called for Israel to be investigated for war crimes for its airstrikes in Gaza during its conflict with Hamas last month. But just this week, a bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers proposed a $1 billion defense package for Israel.

"The eyes and ears of America is Israel," said Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., standing next to Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Monday. "Nobody does more to protect America from radical Islam than our friends in Israel."

While the conversation has shifted within the Democratic Party in Washington, restoring strong bipartisan support for Israel is one way Bennett's government could diverge from Netanyahu, whose 2014 address to Congress to denounce Obama's nuclear deal with Iran left scars. Guided by Netanyahu, Trump moved U.S. support for Israel further to the right, including determining that Israeli settlements were not inherently illegal and recognizing Israel's claim to the Golan Heights and Jerusalem as its capital.

In contrast, Lapid has spoken often about repairing ties with Democrats and restoring the bipartisan nature of support for Israel -- and he would find a partner in that in Biden. As Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday, Biden has been one of Israel's longstanding supporters in Congress, working with every prime minister since Israel's fourth Golda Meir.