根据一份新报告，美国在印度太平洋地区的军事态势已经因为政治内讧、其他地方代价高昂的交战以及其他削弱力量的因素而削弱，这使得迅速崛起的中国在发生冲突时占据上风。
悉尼大学美国研究中心周五发布了一份104页的综合文件，题为“避免危机:美国在印度太平洋地区的战略、军事支出和集体防御”，该文件解释了“美国在印度太平洋地区不再享有军事优势，其维持良好均势的能力越来越不确定”该报告将中国视为唐纳德·特朗普总统2018年国防战略中的头号对手。
尽管美国仍被广泛视为世界上最重要的军事力量，但“中东持续不断的战争、预算紧缩、对先进军事能力的投资不足以及美国自由主义秩序建设议程的规模的综合影响，使得美国武装部队对印度太平洋地区的强大力量竞争准备不足。”
“在研究了美国的战争方式——以实力投射和全方位军事优势为前提——之后，中国部署了一系列强大的精确导弹和其他反干涉系统，削弱美国的军事优势，”报告发现。“通过让美军难以在这些武器的射程内行动，北京方面可以迅速使用有限的武力来实现既成事实胜利——尤其是在台湾、日本群岛或东南亚海域——在美国能够做出回应之前，播下了对华盛顿在这一过程中的安全保证的怀疑。"
8月8日至11日，中国导弹护卫舰六盘水在南海与南方战区司令部的一个舰队进行了为期四天的演习，发射了一个声诱饵。中国军方加强了训练，尤其是对部署在中国南海争议海域的海军力量。
尽管美国在整个21世纪都在很大程度上专注于无止境的反叛乱运动——尤其是在中东——但中国已成功实现了其空军和海军舰队的现代化，并大幅扩大了其陆基导弹库，以增强其捍卫自身利益的能力另一个能源丰富的地区横跨印度洋和太平洋的战略水域。北京在这里的许多目标与华盛顿的目标相冲突。
这两个主要经济大国之间的海军紧张局势已经升级，因为它们分别卷入了一场激烈的贸易战，这场贸易战对两国关系造成了严重破坏，双方都付出了数十亿美元的代价。美国不承认中国对南中国海的巨大主权要求，也不承认据报道将获得主权的自治岛国台湾价值80亿美元的新型F-16V战斗机这是在北京激起公愤的最新举动。
尽管双方之间的对抗尚未升级为暴力，但周五的报告显示，中国可能能够通过发动“有限战争”来夺回台湾，或者不仅使用常规能力，还使用一系列网络和政治武器来控制有争议的岛屿，从而实现自己的目标。该报发现:“在所有这些情况下，北京的目标将是在美国能够采取任何措施阻止之前，首先进行打击，以确保长期的政治目标或具有战略价值的目标。”
美国在国防预算上投入的资金比至少接下来的七个国家加起来还要多，并维护了印度太平洋地区数百个军事设施。然而，该报告称，“过时的超级大国思维模式”认为美国在世界上的角色是捍卫一个扩张的自由秩序，这意味着五角大楼可能过于单薄，华盛顿过于分散注意力，无法及时应对中国的挑战。
在7月11日的护身符军刀2019演习中，美国海军尼米兹级航空母舰罗纳德·里根号(USS Ronald Reagan)率领来自美国海军、美国海岸警卫队、澳大利亚皇家海军、加拿大皇家海军和日本海上自卫队的17艘其他船只组成的编队。五角大楼的地区联盟、航空母舰库和活跃的基地仍然让美国在实力投射方面比中国有明显优势。
研究人员在周五的报告中建议美国加强与地区合作伙伴的联系，尤其是澳大利亚和日本。该报发布之际，新任国防部长马克·埃斯珀(Mark Esper)刚刚结束了对亚洲的首次访问。在亚洲，他表示有兴趣部署陆基中程和中程弹道导弹，这种武器曾禁止本月早些时候被放弃的1987年条约。
不受美苏冷战时期条约约束的中国威胁说，如果五角大楼扩大其在该地区的导弹基础设施，将采取反制措施。北京方面还拒绝了华盛顿提出的达成包括所有三个国家的新武器协议的提议，称美国和俄罗斯作为世界主要核大国负有独特的责任。
CHINA MAY WIN FIGHT 'BEFORE AMERICA CAN RESPOND' IN PACIFIC, REPORT SAYS
The United States' military posture in the Indo-Pacific region has eroded due to political infighting, costly engagements elsewhere and other debilitating factors, giving a rapidly-rising China the upper hand in the event of a conflict, according to a new report.
The University of Sydney's United States Study Center published on Friday a comprehensive, 104-page document entitled "Averting Crisis: American strategy, military spending and collective defence in the Indo-Pacific" that explained how "America no longer enjoys military primacy in the Indo-Pacific and its capacity to uphold a favorable balance of power is increasingly uncertain." The report focused on China as a "great power" competitor identified as a top adversary in President Donald Trump's 2018 National Defense Strategy.
While the U.S. remains widely seen as the world's foremost military power, the "combined effect of ongoing wars in the Middle East, budget austerity, underinvestment in advanced military capabilities and the scale of America's liberal order-building agenda has left the US armed forces ill-prepared for great power competition in the Indo-Pacific."
"Having studied the American way of war — premised on power projection and all-domain military dominance — China has deployed a formidable array of precision missiles and other counter-intervention systems to undercut America's military primacy," the report found. "By making it difficult for US forces to operate within range of these weapons, Beijing could quickly use limited force to achieve a fait accompli victory — particularly around Taiwan, the Japanese archipelago or maritime Southeast Asia — before America can respond, sowing doubt about Washington's security guarantees in the process."
China's guided-missile frigate Liupanshui fires an acoustic decoy during a four-day exercise from August 8-11 with a flotilla of the Southern Theater Command in the South China Sea. The Chinese military has stepped up training, especially for its naval forces deployed to the contested waters of the South China Sea.
While the U.S. has been largely fixated on open-ended counter-insurgency campaigns — especially in the Middle East — throughout the 21st century, China has managed to modernize its air and sea fleets and greatly expand its land-based missile arsenal in order to shore up its own ability to defend its interests in another energy-rich region, the strategic waters spanning the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Many of Beijing's goals here conflict with those of Washington.
Naval tensions have already risen between the two leading economic powers as they were separately engaged in a bitter trade war wreaking havoc on their bilateral ties and costing both billions of dollars. The U.S. does not recognize China's vast claims in the South China Sea, nor to the self-ruling island nation of Taiwan, which was reportedly set to receive $8 billion worth of new F-16V fighter jets in the latest move to stir outrage in Beijing.
Though confrontations between the two have yet to escalate into violence, Friday's report suggested that China may be able to secure its aims by waging a "limited war" to retake Taiwan or assert control over disputed islands using not only conventional capabilities but an array of cyber and political weapons as well. The paper found: "In all these scenarios, Beijing's aim would be to strike first to secure longstanding political goals or strategically valuable objectives before the United States can do anything to stop it."
The U.S. has devoted more money to its defense budget than at least the next seven countries combined and maintained hundreds of military installations across the Indo-Pacific. However, "an outdated superpower mindset" that "regards America's role in the world as defending an expansive liberal order" meant the Pentagon may be stretched too thin and Washington too distracted to address a Chinese challenge in time, according to the report.
The U.S. Navy Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan leads a formation of 17 other ships from the U.S. Navy, U.S. Coast Guard, Royal Australian Navy, Royal Canadian Navy and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force during the Talisman Sabre 2019 exercise on July 11. The Pentagon's regional alliances, aircraft carrier arsenal and active bases still give the U.S. a distinct advantage over China in terms of power projection.
Researchers in Friday's report recommended the U.S. bolster ties with regional partners, especially Australia and Japan. The paper's release coincided with the conclusion of newly-appointed Defense Secretary Mark Esper's debut visit in his position to Asia, where he has expressed interest in deploying land-based medium and intermediate-range ballistic missiles, a class of weapon once banned a 1987 treaty that was abandoned earlier this month.
China, which was not subject to the Cold War-era treaty between the U.S. and Soviet Union, has threatened countermeasures should the Pentagon expand its missile infrastructure in the region. Beijing has also rejected Washington's offer to forge a new arms deal that included all three countries, arguing the U.S. and Russia had unique responsibilities as the world's leading nuclear powers.
