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拜登的100天:低端批准,但大流行反应的强有力的标志:投票

2021-04-26 15:39   美国新闻网   - 

激烈的党派之争仍在持续乔·拜登不温不火的工作支持率——这是自哈里·杜鲁门以来在任100天的总统中第三低的——以及持续的经济混乱、流行病的影响和对拜登政府规模和角色的看法的质疑。

总的来说,在最新的美国广播公司新闻/华盛顿邮报民意调查中,52%的美国人支持拜登的工作,低于自1945年以来任何一位在任100天的总统,除了1974年的杰拉尔德·福特(48%,在他不得人心地赦免理查德·尼克松之后)和唐纳德·特朗普2017年为42%。从杜鲁门到拜登的14位总统中,100天的平均值是66%。

拜登的总体评级背后是本次民意调查中的一系列不同评估,由美国广播公司新闻制作兰格研究协会。总统赢得了广泛的支持大流行救援包, 65%;他对大流行的处理,64%;他提议提高公司税, 58%.但是支持他的2万亿美元基础设施包下滑至52%,他处理经济的评级也下滑;他对自己在移民情况在美墨边境。

更广泛地说,53%的人表示担心拜登会在增加政府在美国社会中的规模和作用方面做得太多。与之相关的是,40%的人认为他“过于自由”,超过了他最近的100天民主党前任——巴拉克·奥巴马(33%)和比尔·克林顿(26%)。(这是奥巴马总统任期后期的玫瑰。)

与此同时,公众对服务较少的小政府的偏好为48%,这是近30年来美国广播公司/邮报民意调查中的最低水平。事实上,45%的人现在支持更大的政府,提供更多的服务——这是对拜登呼吁政府在解决社会问题中发挥更大作用的一个开放,如果不是广泛支持的话。

总体而言,自2012年8月上次被问及以来,受民主党人(+17个百分点)、大学毕业生(+17个百分点)、自由派(+15个百分点)和男性(+8个百分点)的增长推动,对更大政府和更多服务的偏好上升了7个百分点。这在他们的同类中基本上没有变化。

同样值得注意的是,虽然拜登的总体评级在历史上落后,但超过了他的前任。特朗普,有记录以来的第一任总统永远不要获得大多数人的赞同以38%的工作支持率离开办公室,比拜登今天的支持率低14个百分点。特朗普对他处理该事件的支持率为38%冠状病毒-现在比拜登低26个百分点。

相比之下,拜登在处理经济方面的评级与特朗普在1月份的评级基本相同,这表明这是一个明显的挑战。事实上,只有42%的美国人对经济给予正面评价,远低于大流行前的水平;相反,58%的人说它的状况不太好或不好。总统的命运往往与经济状况密切相关。

党人

近年来党派之争的加剧是拜登整体评级的一个因素。只有13%的共和党人认可他的在职工作,与民主党人在100天内对特朗普的认可完全一致。相反,2009年4月,奥巴马获得了共和党36%的支持率,乔治·布什在100天的时候获得了民主党39%的支持率。

再往前追溯,乔治H.W布什在1989年获得了民主党58%的支持率,罗纳德·里根在1981年4月的100天左右获得了民主党62%的支持率——最初的反对党吸引力水平似乎已经成为过去。

无党派人士,其中大多数倾向于两个政党中的一个,看起来也不同。早些年,相当多的无党派人士在100天内批准了新总统——例如,75%的人支持里根,67%的人支持奥巴马。今天,47%的独立人士支持拜登的工作——比特朗普的38%要好,但远非前几任总统所见。

谈判?

另一个结果指出了拜登的一个难题——是否以及如何寻求与国会中少数党共和党人的妥协。一方面,美国人经常表示支持两党合作,现在的情况就是这样:60%的人更喜欢看到拜登试图通过对他的提议进行重大修改来赢得共和党的支持,而只有30%的人更喜欢他试图在没有重大修改的情况下颁布他的提议,即使这意味着没有共和党的支持。

然而,政治生活并没有那么简单。尽管公众有这种偏好,但拜登政府可能不会忘记,他最受欢迎的倡议——大流行救助计划——是他在没有共和党人投票的情况下推动通过的。

也就是说,即使那些认为拜登在这些问题上的观点“刚刚好”(而不是太自由或太保守)的人在谈判问题上也存在分歧:44%的人认为他应该本着两党合作的精神妥协;45%的人认为他应该在没有共和党支持的情况下实施他的提议。

审批组

拜登的支持率在总统选举中最倾向于支持他的人群中达到顶峰:民主党(90%)、自由派(86%)和黑人(82%)。大学毕业生比没有大学学历的人高出12个百分点(60%比48%),女性比男性高出8个百分点(56%比48%),这也反映了11月份的相似模式。

方法论

这项美国广播公司新闻/华盛顿邮报的调查于2021年4月18日至21日以英语和西班牙语通过座机和手机进行,随机抽取了1007名成年人。结果有抽样误差幅度3.5个百分点,包括设计效果。党派分歧是33%-24%-35%,民主党-共和党-无党派。

这项调查是由纽约兰格研究协会为美国广播公司新闻制作的,抽样和数据收集由马里兰州洛克维尔的Abt协会进行。查看调查方法的详细信息这儿。

 

Biden's 100 days: Low-end approval, yet strong marks on pandemic response: POLL

Intense partisanship is holdingJoe Bidento a tepid job approval rating -- the third-lowest for any president at 100 days in office since Harry Truman -- along with continued economic dislocation, pandemic impacts and questions about Biden's view of the size and role of government.

All told, 52% of Americans in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll approve of Biden's work in office, lower than any president at 100 days in office since 1945, save Gerald Ford in 1974 (48%, after his unpopular pardon of Richard Nixon) andDonald Trumpat 42% in 2017. For the 14 presidents from Truman to Biden, the 100-day average is 66%.

Behind Biden's overall rating is a range of varying assessments in this poll, produced for ABC News byLanger Research Associates. The president wins broad approval for hispandemic relief package, 65%; for his handling of the pandemic, 64%; and for his proposal toraise corporate taxes, 58%. But support for his $2 trillioninfrastructure packageslips to 52%, as does his rating for handling the economy; and he has just 37% approval for his work on theimmigration situationat the U.S.-Mexico border.

More broadly, 53% express concern that Biden will do too much to increase the size and role of government in U.S. society. Relatedly, 40% see him as "too liberal," more than either of his most recent Democratic predecessors at 100 days – Barack Obama, 33%, and Bill Clinton, 26%. (This rose for Obama later in his presidency.)

At the same time, public preference for smaller government with fewer services, at 48%, is its lowest in ABC/Post polls dating back nearly 30 years. Virtually as many, 45%, now favor larger government with more services -- an opening, if not broad endorsement, for Biden's call for a greater role for government in addressing social ills.

Overall, preference for larger government with more services is up 7 percentage points since last asked in August 2012, driven by increases among Democrats (+17 points), college graduates (+17), liberals (+15) and men (+8). It's essentially unchanged among their counterparts.

Notably, too, while Biden's overall rating lags in historical terms, it surpasses his immediate predecessor. Trump, the first president on recordnever to achieve majority approval, left office with a 38% job approval rating, 14 points below Biden's today. Trump had the same 38% approval for his handling of thecoronavirus-- 26 points below Biden's now.

By contrast, Biden's rating for handling the economy is essentially the same as Trump's in January, marking this as a clear challenge. Indeed, just 42% of Americans rate the economy positively, far below its pre-pandemic level; 58% instead say it's in not-so-good or poor shape. Presidential fortunes often are closely linked to economic conditions.

Partisans

The intensified partisanship of recent years is a factor in Biden's overall rating. Just 13% of Republicans approve of his work in office, exactly matching Democrats' approval of Trump at 100 days. Obama instead had 36% approval from Republicans in April 2009, and George W. Bush had 39% approval from Democrats at his 100-day mark.

Going further back, George H.W. Bush had 58% approval from Democrats in 1989, and Ronald Reagan had 62% Democratic approval at about 100 days in April 1981 -- levels of initial opposite-party appeal that seem a relic of the past.

Independents, most of whom lean toward one of the two parties, look different as well. In earlier years, sizable majorities of independents approved of the new president at 100 days -- 75% for Reagan, for example, and 67% as recently as Obama. Today, 47% of independents approve of Biden's work -- better than Trump's 38% at the same point, but far from what previous presidents have seen.

Negotiate?

Another result points to a conundrum for Biden -- whether and how to seek compromise with minority-party Republicans in Congress. On one hand, Americans often express support for bipartisanship, and such is the case now: Sixty percent prefer to see Biden try to win Republican support by making major changes to his proposals, while just 30% prefer he try to have his proposals enacted without major changes, even if that means no GOP support.

Political life, though, is not that simple. Despite that public preference, it likely won't be lost on the Biden administration that his most popular initiative -- the pandemic relief package -- is one he pushed through without a single Republican vote.

That said, even those who see Biden's views on the issues as "just about right" (rather than too liberal or too conservative) split on the matter of negotiation: Forty-four percent think he should compromise in the spirit of bipartisanship; 45% think he should enact his proposals without Republican support.

Approval groups

Biden's approval peaks among those who were most apt to support him in the presidential election: Democrats (90%), liberals (86%) and Black people (82%). It's 12 points higher among college graduates than those without college degrees (60% versus 48%), and 8 points higher among women than men (56% versus 48%), again reflecting familiar patterns from November.

Methodology

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone April 18 to 21, 2021, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,007 adults. Results have amargin of sampling errorof 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 33%-24%-35%, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York with sampling and data collection by Abt Associates of Rockville, Maryland. See details on the survey's methodologyhere.

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