加州萨克拉门托——加州州长加文·纽瑟姆的批评者几乎肯定有资格召回选举对于投票来说，这是这个高度民主的州的一项非凡成就。
现在真正的工作开始了。
在这个人口最多的州重新获得州长职位的机会对共和党人来说是一个充满活力的前景，他们已经在全州范围内被锁了十多年。阿诺德·施瓦辛格在2003年罢免民主党州长格雷·戴维斯时结束了州长任期，这是该州历史上唯一一次成功的州长罢免。
但共和党只占加州选民的四分之一，而且没有一个像施瓦辛格一样的候选人能被选民立即认出来，要吸引独立人士和民主党人召回《新闻周刊》，同时保持共和党人的团结，是一个艰难的过程。加州公共政策研究所最近的一项民意调查发现，只有40%的加州人支持召回第一任州长。
“如果这只是被贴上共和党努力的标签，成功的可能性很小，”共和党顾问蒂姆·罗萨莱斯(Tim Rosales)说，他曾是约翰·考克斯(John Cox)竞选活动的高级顾问。约翰·考克斯是一名商人，2018年输给了纽森(Newsom)，现在又在竞选。他的公司最近停止了与考克斯的合作。
除了考克斯之外，迄今为止竞选中的共和党高层还有前圣地亚哥市长凯文·福尔科纳和前美国众议员道格·奥斯，他们上一次任职是在2005年。两者都不是家喻户晓的名字，尽管福尔克纳一直在该州巡回宣传以提高自己的知名度。
这次最接近施瓦辛格的可能是真人秀明星和前奥运选手凯特琳·詹娜，谁说她可能会参加比赛。她是一名长期的共和党人，但从未寻求当选公职。
福尔克纳的竞选经理斯蒂芬·普茨说，如果人们在等另一个施瓦辛格，“他们会等很长时间。”
福尔克纳的团队表示，他符合共和党人在民主党州获胜的模式，比如马里兰州的州长拉里·霍根(Larry Hogan)或马萨诸塞州的查理·贝克(Charlie Baker)。他两次当选圣地亚哥市长，圣地亚哥是美国人口第八大城市，也是民主党人数超过共和党的地方。
“这是一场漫长的比赛。每个人都认为它很短，但它并没有那么短，”普茨说，他认为福尔科纳有足够的时间来提高知名度和激励选民。
加州共和党尚未选出最受欢迎的候选人，但女主席杰西卡·米伦·帕特森表示，支持将在预计于秋季举行的选举之前进行。
“如果我们能在一个候选人上达成一致，我认为这对我们所有人都更好，”她在接受美联社采访时说。“我希望我们能找到那个能让我们团结起来的候选人，并说:‘这是我们获胜的最好机会。’"
但是回忆一下组织者，包括领导签名收集工作的基层组织的领导人，以及共和党州长协会，计划不参加候选人竞选。相反，他们将专注于试图说服选民推翻纽森。
“我们正在打开大门，这就是我们所做的一切，”加州救援委员会的顾问安妮·邓斯莫尔说，该委员会计划为支持召回运动筹集资金，播放电视广告并进行投票。“如果我们不成功，其他人做什么都不重要。”
召回支持者在大约9个月内收集了210万个签名。下周，预计选举官员将核实足够的信息，以使召回有资格进行投票，投票将向选民提出两个问题:纽森应该被召回吗?谁应该代替他?
关于第二个问题的投票只有在简单多数想要删除纽森的情况下才会被计算在内。然后得票最多的候选人成为州长，不管他们是否得票超过50%。
邓斯莫尔说，她设想救援加州和由退休的县警长欧灵·希利(·希利)管理的合作委员会发起召回请愿，呼吁独立选民和其他可能对政党结构持怀疑态度的人，而各政党则专注于扩大共和党基础。
与此同时，希特利对任何全国性政党的参与持怀疑态度，称共和党州长协会成立政治委员会是“抢钱”。官方政党对候选人的任何支持都可能疏远草根活动家。
帕特森说，但如果有令人信服的选择来取代他，共和党人将更有能力让选民在第一次投票时说“是”。该州共和党希望在未来几个月内选出一名候选人，她正在寻找一个能够建立一个全州范围的组织，筹集大量资金，并得到该州其他共和党当选官员的支持的人。大多数共和党州议员已经支持福尔克纳。
“我认为加州不想要的是加文·纽瑟姆·莱特，他们想要真正的、大胆的、不同的领导，这是我们将关注的，”她说。
纽森的选民对他的愤怒很大程度上是因为他对冠状病毒的处理。但是从今年年初开始，该州的情况有了很大的改善，当时加州是全国的中心，该州的大部分地区都被封锁了。
纽森面临的最大威胁之一是，如果另一名民主党人参加竞选，这是他和他的顾问们正在努力防止的。许多人认为民主党副州长克鲁兹·布斯塔曼特加入2003年召回的决定伤害了戴维斯。
目前，民主党人强烈支持纽森。最近几周，来自黑人、拉丁裔、犹太人和LGBTQ政治团体的领导人举行了支持纽森的新闻发布会，许多著名的民主党人表示他们不会与他竞选。
克莱尔蒙特·麦肯纳学院政治学教授杰克·皮特尼说，共和党人最大的希望可能是纽森犯下另一个错误，比如他11月份决定参加一个说客的生日聚会，同时敦促居民呆在家里。一个无面具的新闻记者在聚会上坐在其他人旁边的照片激怒了加州人，并促使人们在召回请愿书上签名。
“共和党赢不了，”皮德尼说。“但加文·纽瑟姆可能会失去它。”
As California recall looks likely, hard work begins for GOP
SACRAMENTO, Calif. -- California Gov. Gavin Newsom's critics almost certainly have qualified a recallelectionfor the ballot, a remarkable feat in the heavily Democratic state.
Now the real work begins.
The chance to recapture the governorship in the most populous state is an energizing prospect for Republicans who have been locked out of statewide office for more than a decade. That was when Arnold Schwarzenegger was ending a governorship that began when he ousted Democratic Gov. Gray Davis in a 2003 recall, the only successful recall of a governor in state history.
But the GOP constitutes just a quarter of voters in California and with no Schwarzenegger-like candidate who is immediately recognizable to voters, it's an uphill climb to attract the independents and Democrats needed to recall Newsom all while keeping Republicans united. A recent poll by the Public Policy Institute of California found just 40% of Californians support recalling the first-term governor.
“If this is simply branded as a Republican effort the likelihood of success is very slim,” said Tim Rosales, a Republican consultant who was a senior adviser to the campaign of John Cox, a businessman who lost to Newsom in 2018 and is running again. His firm recently stopped working with Cox.
Beyond Cox, the top Republicans in the race so far are former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and ex-U.S. Rep. Doug Ose, who last held office in 2005. Neither is close to a household name, though Faulconer has been barnstorming the state to raise his profile.
The closest thing to Schwarzenegger this time may be reality TV star and former OlympianCaitlyn Jenner, who has said she may enter the race. She is a longtime Republican but has never sought elected office.
Stephen Puetz, the campaign manager for Faulconer, said if people are waiting for another Schwarzenegger, “they’re going to be waiting for a long time.”
Faulconer’s team says he fits the mold of a Republican who can win in a Democratic state, like Gov. Larry Hogan in Maryland or Charlie Baker in Massachusetts. He was elected mayor twice in San Diego, the eighth-largest city in the country by population and a place where Democrats outnumber Republicans.
“It’s a long race. Everyone thinks of it as short, but it’s not that short,” Puetz said, arguing that Faulconer has plenty of time to boost name recognition and energize voters.
The California Republican Party hasn't chosen a favorite yet but Chairwoman Jessica Millan Patterson said an endorsement will come before the election, expected in the fall.
“If we can all get in agreement on a single candidate I think it works better for all of us,” she said in an interview with The Associated Press. “I'm hopeful that we find that candidate that can unite us all and say: ‘This is the best chance we have at winning.'"
But recall organizers, including the leader of the grassroots group that led the signature gathering effort, as well as the Republican Governors Association, plan to stay out of the candidate fight. Instead, they’ll focus solely on trying to convince voters to oust Newsom.
“We’re opening the door, that’s all we’re doing,” said Anne Dunsmore, a consultant for Rescue California, a committee that plans to raise money, run TV ads and conduct polling for the pro-recall campaign. “And if we don’t succeed it doesn’t matter what anybody else does.”
Recall supporters gathered 2.1 million signatures in about nine months. Next week, it's expected enough will be verified by election officials to qualify the recall for a ballot that will ask voters two questions: Should Newsom be recalled? Who should replace him?
The votes on the second question will only be counted if a simple majority wants to remove Newsom. Then the candidate with the most votes becomes governor regardless of whether they top 50%.
Dunsmore said she envisions Rescue California and the partner committee run by Orrin Heatlie, the retired county sheriff's sergeant who launched the recall petition, appealing to independent voters and others who may be skeptical of party structures, while the parties focus on turning out the Republican base.
Heatlie, meanwhile, is skeptical of any national party involvement, calling the Republican Governors Association's creation of a political committee a “money grab." And any endorsement of a candidate by the official party could serve to alienate grassroots activists.
But Republicans will be in a stronger position to get voters to say “yes" on the first if there is a compelling choice to replace him, Patterson said. The state GOP hopes to pick a candidate in the next few months, and she is looking for someone that can build a statewide organization, raise lots of money and has support from other Republican elected officials throughout the state. The majority of Republican state lawmakers already endorsed Faulconer.
“What I think California's don't want is Gavin Newsom Lite, they want true, bold, different leadership and that's what we'll be focusing on," she said.
Much of the voter anger at Newsom was fueled by his handling of the coronavirus. But conditions in the state are vastly improved from the start of the year when California was the epicenter for the country and most of the state was locked down.
One of the biggest threats to Newsom would be if another Democrat enters the race, something he and his advisers are working hard to prevent. Many believe the decision by Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante to enter the 2003 recall hurt Davis.
For now, Democrats are strongly united behind Newsom. In recent weeks, leaders from Black, Latino, Jewish and LGBTQ political groups have held news conferences supporting Newsom, and many prominent Democrats have said they will not run against him.
Republicans' best hope may be that Newsom makes another blunder like his November decision to attend a lobbyist’s birthday party while urging residents to stay home, said Jack Pitney, a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College. Photos of a maskless Newsom sitting close to others at the party infuriated Californians and spurred people to sign recall petitions.
“The Republicans can’t win it," Pitney said. “But Gavin Newsom can lose it.”
