明年参议院战场的形状仍在展现，一些尚未决定的候选人目前仍在观望，但今年前三个月的财务披露报告可能会让人们对潜在竞争者的早期操纵有所了解。
威斯康辛州参议员罗恩·约翰逊(Ron Johnson)是众议院控制权之战中最脆弱的现任者之一，他说他不急于决定自己的未来计划。他并不孤单，爱荷华州参议员查克·格拉斯利，参议院中最资深的共和党人，也推迟了对他在国会40年后的未来的最终决定。
参议院共和党需要净增加一个席位才能夺回多数席位，与潜在的混乱初选相比，保留现任更受欢迎。他们的机会越来越渺茫五次退休，这增加了明年参议院地图的竞争力。
混合开放座位，特别选举2022年重新划分选区导致一些潜在的候选人考虑竞选更高的职位，例如在亚利桑那州、宾夕法尼亚州和俄亥俄州的战场。此外，有可能在佛罗里达州击败共和党主要目标的机会，也可能会吸引一些众议院民主党人加入可能的竞争。
两个共和党的领域停滞不前
在威斯康辛州，约翰逊的优柔寡断让一位潜在的共和党议员悬而未决，尽管对他的压力越来越大，包括来自前任的压力唐纳德·特朗普总统谁在催促他参加比赛。
特朗普在本月早些时候的一份声明中表示:“他尚未宣布参选，我当然希望他这样做。”。“他不知道自己有多受欢迎。快跑，罗恩，快跑。”
约翰逊在2016年承诺只担任两届任期，这是一个障碍。他于2010年首次当选，六年后以微弱优势赢得连任。在特朗普提供支持之前，约翰逊告诉三月中旬的一个当地电台节目谈到了他的决定，“在相当长的一段时间里，我都不用去了。”
如果约翰逊继续参加竞选，他将面临一系列渴望获胜的民主党挑战者举起他的最近的争议。但特朗普的忠实盟友已经持有一大笔钱，很容易让他免于退休，在1月至3月期间筹集了略高于54.5万美元，在本季度结束时手头有100万美元。然而，这一总数落后于其他现任者，甚至落后于他上次竞选期间同一时间点的自己的筹款数字。
格拉斯利也扰乱了共和党在爱荷华州的努力，让他的决定在秋季做出，如果他选择退出，共和党人等待接替他的时间就更少了。
这位87岁的参议员今年2月告诉记者，他预计将在今年“9月、10月或11月的某个时候”决定是否寻求连任得梅因登记处。
在他的不确定性中，格拉斯利筹集的资金不到2015年同期他最后一次竞选连任时筹集的资金总额的一半，尽管他早期的筹资努力多年来一直在动摇。截至3月底，他在银行中持有200万美元的稳定金额，可能会寻求下一个期限。
爱荷华州共和党主席杰夫·考夫曼(Jeff Kaufmann)表示，他认为格拉斯利还没有做出决定，但他没有看到格拉斯利在准入或活动方面“放松脚步”。
“无论他决定做什么，他都会比自己更重视对爱荷华州人民来说重要的事情，”他说。
然而，现任者之间的拖延不仅仅发生在摇摆州，尤其是特朗普承诺对批评他的人，包括他自己政党内的人进行政治报复。共和党参议员约翰·图恩(John Thune)是少数党党鞭，也是排名第二的参议院共和党人，他尚未正式宣布将在特朗普之后公开竞选连任鼓励反对他的挑战者。
在红色州，共和党人受到青睐，但由于长期保持8位数库存的图恩让该党等待，他也在今年第一季度积累了1400万美元的战争资金，这可能是他的竞选活动可能走向何方的信号。
民主党人关注俄亥俄州宾夕法尼亚的开放席位
在宾夕法尼亚州，即将离任的共和党参议员帕特·图梅(Pat Toomey)即将空出的席位引发了接替他的争夺。越来越多的民主党候选人可能或正式争夺席位，其中包括众议员康纳·兰姆(Conor Lamb)、克丽丝·胡拉汉(Chrissy Houlahan)和马德琳·迪恩(Madeleine Dean)。
双方小绵羊和Houlahan迪恩说，他们正在考虑可能的晋升小山上个月，她“保持开放的心态”
在筹款方面领先民主党三名潜在候选人的是胡拉汉，她在第一季度筹集了58.3万美元，积累了350万美元的战争基金，与2019年的这个时候相比有了很大的提高。
兰姆在2018年特别选举中首次赢得国会席位后，代表匹兹堡地区的一个地区，他的第一季度筹款比2019年翻了一番，银行存款100万美元。但无论是他筹集的资金还是手头的资金，他都落后于胡哈兰。迪恩的竞选团队报告说，本季度的筹款金额要小得多，到4月份，银行存款只有57.5万美元，这一总额似乎并不表明她已经为参议院的竞选做好了准备。
如果这些众议院民主党人中的任何一个进入参议院拥挤的比赛对于提名，已经有一个资金筹集者设置了很高的标准。宾夕法尼亚州副州长约翰·羁特曼(John Fairtman)在2月份发起了他的参议院竞选活动，到3月底筹集了400万美元。
在共和党方面，代表迈克·凯利(Mike Kelly)和盖伊·雷申塔尔(Guy Reschenthaler)都是特朗普的忠实者，也是可能的竞争者。尽管自11月选举以来，凯利和雷森塔尔都没有增加筹款，但他们都带着50多万美元进入了4月，这可能为新生的参议院竞选提供急需的燃料。
在附近的俄亥俄州，民主党众议员蒂姆·瑞恩在2019年短暂竞选总统，他正认真考虑竞选参议院，着眼于即将退休的共和党参议员罗布·波特曼(Rob Portman)拥有的席位。早在2月份，瑞安就表示，他“在未来几周内将有更多的话要说”，但他似乎仍在慢慢来。
对于瑞安或兰姆这样的候选人来说，十年一次的重新划分过程使众议院已经很艰难的连任竞选更加复杂。由于宾夕法尼亚州和俄亥俄州都预计将失去一个地区，这两位民主党人面临着一个可能的现实，即他们的地区可能会在地图制作过程中消失或变得更红，这可能会使他们更接近参议院竞选。
凭借其在全国的知名度和日益增长的筹款能力，瑞安被认为是参议院竞选中一个强大的竞争者。他在第一季度赚了120多万美元，并在银行里拥有100多万美元。
太阳带概述了明年的主要目标
在亚利桑那州和佛罗里达州，这两个州有助于塑造参议院战场的轮廓，特朗普的影响力可能在那里受到考验，一批潜在候选人可能会为激烈的竞争做好准备。
亚利桑那州众议员安迪·比格斯和保罗·戈萨尔是特朗普最坚定的支持者，他们都支持国会推翻总统选举结果的努力表达不定冠词利息挑战民主党参议员马克·凯利。
这位大一的参议员在去年11月击败前共和党参议员玛莎·麦克萨利(Martha McSally)后，正在中期选举中寻求整整六年的任期，翻转了席位，并帮助他的政党获得了多数席位。
凯利现在是共和党的首要目标，但他以早期优势开始了这个周期。他在第一季度赚取了近440万美元，在此期间结束时手头也有近440万美元。
任何对抗凯利的对手都有很长的路要走。比格斯和戈萨尔今年第一季度筹集的资金都没有超过30万美元。但比格斯今年开始时，银行里有更大的金额——74.5万美元——外加4万美元的债务。与此同时，戈萨尔手头只有6.2万美元。
在更东边，与赢得特朗普“全面彻底支持”的佛罗里达州参议员马尔科·卢比奥较量的机会，正在吸引一些国会民主党人可能争夺更高的职位。
代表奥兰多市内及周边佛罗里达州中部地区的众议员瓦尔·戴明斯(Val Demings)上个月表示，她“认真考虑”可能与佛罗里达州最著名居民的另一个顶级盟友鲁比奥或州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯(Ron DeSantis)竞争。
“我还没有做出明确的决定，”戴明斯告诉北佛罗里达民主党俱乐部。
但她不是唯一一个渴望新工作的佛罗里达州民主党人。众议员斯蒂芬妮·墨菲(Stephanie Murphy)代表戴明斯的一个邻近地区，领导着一个被称为“蓝狗”联盟的众议院民主党温和派，她也在考虑参议院的竞选。
她甚至在发起全州范围的反卢比奥运动之前采取了初步措施，在2月份宣布了一项针对全州事件的虚拟倾听努力。
戴明斯和墨菲基本上是在竞选资金，两人到3月份筹集了近35万美元，在银行筹集了100多万美元。对戴明斯来说，最近的收获是一个特别值得注意的数字，他很少在选举周期的早期筹集到超过10万美元的资金。
但是这两个人面临着一个艰难的攀登。鲁比奥在第一季度获得了160万美元，手头有390万美元，这是由于他的在职以及与特朗普的关系，从而确立了对挑战者的显著优势。
What the 1st fundraising quarter signals about 2022 Senate map
The shape of the Senate battlefield next year is still unfolding, with some undecided candidates staying on the sidelines for now, but financial disclosure reports from the first three months of the year could offer a glimpse into the early maneuvering by potential contenders.
One of the most vulnerable incumbents at the center of the fight over control of the chamber is Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., who said he's in no hurry to decide on his future plans. He is not alone, with Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley, the most senior Republican in the Senate, also putting off final word on his future after four decades in Congress.
The Senate GOP needs a net gain of one seat to reclaim the majority, and keeping an incumbent is preferred over a potentially chaotic primary. Looming over their chances arefive retirements, which have increased the competitiveness of next year's Senate map.
A mix of open seats, specialelectionsand redistricting in 2022 has led some prospective candidates to contemplate runs for higher office, such as in battlegrounds Arizona, Pennsylvania and Ohio. And the opportunity to potentially knock off a prime Republican target in Florida, too, might be drawing some House Democrats into a possible matchup.
Two GOP fields at a standstill
In Wisconsin, Johnson's indecision has left a potential Republican bench in suspension even as the pressure on him heightens, including from formerPresident Donald Trump, who is prodding him into the race.
"He has not yet announced that he is running, and I certainly hope he does," Trump said in a statement earlier this month. "He has no idea how popular he is. Run, Ron, Run."
Standing in the way is Johnson's 2016 pledge to serve only two terms. He was first elected in 2010 and narrowly won reelection six years later. Before Trump offered the endorsement, Johnsontolda local radio show in mid-March of his decision, "I don't have to make it for quite some time."
If he stays in the race, Johnson will face a roster of Democratic challengers eager toelevatehisrecentcontroversies. But the ardent Trump ally is already holding onto a significant sum that can easily keep him out of retirement, raising just over $545,000 between January and March and ending the quarter with $1 million on hand. That total, though, lags behind other incumbents, and even his own fundraising numbers at the same point during his last run.
Grassley, too, has unsettled the GOP's efforts in Iowa, leaving his decision for the fall and Republicans-in-waiting less time to potentially succeed him if he chooses to bow out.
The 87-year-old senator told reporters in February he expects to decide on whether he'll seek another term "sometime in September, October or November" of this year, according to theDes Moines Register.
Amid his uncertainty, Grassley raised less than half of the total he raised around the same time in 2015, when he last ran for reelection, though his early fundraising efforts have wavered over the years. He maintains a steady amount in the bank with $2 million on hand as of the end of March for a possible pursuit of another term.
Jeff Kaufmann, the chairman of the Iowa Republican Party, said he doesn't believe Grassley has arrived at a decision yet, but he has not seen him take "his foot off the pedal" in terms of access or activity.
"Whatever he decides to do, he will put more emphasis on what's important for the people of Iowa than he does himself," he said.
The delay among incumbents isn't only in swing states, though, particularly with Trump promising political revenge against his critics, including those within his own party. Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., the minority whip and second-highest ranking Senate Republican, hasn't yet officially announced he's running for reelection after Trump openlyencourageda challenger against him.
In the red state, Republicans are favored but as Thune, who has long maintained an eight-figure stockpile, keeps the party waiting he also has amassed a war chest of $14 million in the first quarter of the year -- a possible signal of where his campaign could be heading.
Democrats eye open seats in Pennsylvania, Ohio
In Pennsylvania, outgoing Republican Sen. Pat Toomey's soon-to-be vacant seat opened up a scramble to take his place. Among the growing ranks of Democratic contenders either potentially or formally jostling for the seat are Reps. Conor Lamb, Chrissy Houlahan and Madeleine Dean.
BothLambandHoulahanhave said they are mulling over a possible promotion, while Dean toldThe Hilllast month she is "keeping an open mind."
Leading the trio of Democratic potential hopefuls in fundraising is Houlahan, raising over $583,000 in the first quarter and amassing a war chest of $3.5 million, a big jump from where she was at this point in 2019.
Lamb, who represents a Pittsburgh-area district after first winning a seat in Congress in a 2018 special election, doubled his first quarter fundraising haul from 2019 and has $1 million in the bank. But he is trailing Houhalan in both the amounts he raised and on hand. Dean's campaign reported a far more modest fundraising sum this quarter and entered April with just $575,000 in the bank, a total that doesn't appear to suggest she's decidedly readying for a Senate bid.
If any one of these House Democrats enter thecrowded racefor the nomination, there is already a fundraiser setting a high bar. Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who launched his Senate campaign in February, raised a whopping $4 million by the end of March.
On the Republican side, Reps. Mike Kelly and Guy Reschenthaler, both Trump loyalists, are also possible contenders. Although neither Kelly nor Reschenthaler have ramped up their fundraising since the November election, both headed into April with more than $500,000 on hand, which could provide much-needed fuel to a nascent Senate campaign.
In nearby Ohio, Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan, who mounted a short-lived presidential bid in 2019, is seriously considering a bid for the Senate, eyeing the seat held by retiring Republican Sen. Rob Portman. Back in February, Ryan said he'd "have more to say in the coming weeks" on a potential announcement, but he still appears to be taking his time.
For candidates like Ryan or Lamb, an already tough reelection campaign in the House is further complicated by the decennial redistricting process. With both Pennsylvania and Ohio expected to lose a district, the two Democrats are facing a likely reality in which their district may disappear or become far redder in the mapmaking process, possibly pushing them closer toward a Senate campaign.
With a national profile and an increasing fundraising prowess, Ryan is considered a formidable contender in a possible Senate race. He brought in more than $1.2 million in the first quarter and boasts over $1 million in the bank.
Sun Belt outlines key targets next year
In Arizona and Florida, two states that help shape the contours of the Senate battlefield and where the influence of Trump will likely be tested, a batch of potential candidates could be bracing for highly competitive races.
Arizona Reps. Andy Biggs and Paul Gosar, two of Trump's most unrelenting supporters -- both backed the efforts in Congress to overturn the presidential election results -- haveexpressedaninterestin taking on Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly.
The freshman senator is seeking a full six-year term in the midterms after defeating former GOP Sen. Martha McSally last November, flipping the seat and helping to deliver the majority for his party.
Kelly is now a top-tier target for Republicans, but he starts the cycle with an early edge. He raked in nearly $4.4 million in the first quarter, ending the period with also nearly $4.4 million on hand.
Any rival against Kelly will have a long way to go. Neither Biggs nor Gosar topped $300,000 in money raised in the first quarter of this year. But Biggs is starting out this year with a bigger sum in the bank -- $745,000 -- plus $40,000 in debt. Gosar, meanwhile, only has $62,000 on hand.
Further east, the opportunity to take on Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., who earned Trump's "Complete and Total Endorsement," is luring some congressional Democrats into possible bids for higher office.
Rep. Val Demings, who represents a central Florida district in and around Orlando, said last month she's "seriously considering" a possible bid against Rubio or Gov. Ron DeSantis, another top ally of Florida's most prominent resident.
"I have made no definite decisions yet," Demings told the Democratic Club of North Florida.
But she isn't the lone Florida Democrat possibly ogling a new job. Rep. Stephanie Murphy, who represents a neighboring district to Demings and leads a moderate faction of House Democrats known as the "Blue Dog" coalition, is also weighing a Senate bid.
She's even appearing to take preliminary steps before launching a statewide campaign against Rubio, announcing in February a virtual listening effort with events across the state.
Demings and Murphy are essentially running even in the money race, with the pair raising close to $350,000 through March and collecting more than $1 million in the bank. The latest haul is a particularly notable sum for Demings, who rarely raises more than $100,000 so early in the election cycle.
But the two face an uphill climb. Rubio brought in $1.6 million in the first quarter with $3.9 million on hand -- running on the strength of his incumbency and ties to Trump to set up a significant advantage over his challengers.
