美国前财长劳伦斯萨默斯(Lawrence Summers)周四警告称，美国国内和全球经济衰退的可能性越来越大，称“人们很难有信心”，因为联邦利率已经很低，唐纳德特朗普(Donald Trump)总统已经与盟友和对手展开了贸易纠纷。

　　在接受美国有线电视新闻网采访时，萨默斯指向长期收益率低于短期收益率、股市下跌、制造业陷入困境以及全球经济问题。“这些事情往往会导致衰退，”他说，他认为明年开始衰退的几率“略低于或略高于50-50”。

　　“人们很难对经济的弹性有信心，”萨默斯断言，他以前也曾担任国家经济委员会主任和世界银行首席经济学家。“很难，因为利率太低，[联邦储备局没有太大空间]进一步降息。很难，因为我们已经对针对最不需要钱的最高收入人群的误导性减税开了财政大炮。坦率地说，这很困难，因为人们对现有经济团队的能力存在疑虑。”

　　萨默斯继续说道，他警告说，像2008年和2009年发生的那样，国际社会一致应对全球衰退的可能性不大。“今天，我们有一个美国，它正与世界上大多数其他国家进行经济战，与欧洲不和，与北美不和，当然也与中国不和。”

　　专家警告说，从亚洲到欧洲和北美，世界各国都将面临全球衰退。本周，市场显示出越来越多的疲软迹象，分析师认为，这至少部分是对特朗普威胁对中国剩余的3000亿美元美国进口商品增税的回应公告周一，部分关税将在圣诞节期间全部延期或暂停，周三又有所下降。

　　“经济数据已经软化，并且越来越多地发出衰退信号，尤其是从工业方面，”美银美林美国经济主管米歇尔·梅耶说讲述纽约时报。“贸易是其中很大一部分，”她补充道。

　　乔治·布什白宫前助手伊莉斯·乔丹认为，经济衰退将是特朗普连任的一大打击。

　　“这是政治自杀，”乔丹说星期四说在MSNBC的《早安乔》中。“我是说，唐纳德·特朗普的政治实力是以他一直保持、保护和培育强大经济的理念为前提的。”

EX TREASURY SECRETARY WARNS OF RECESSION: 'IT'S HARD FOR PEOPLE TO HAVE CONFIDENCE' IN ECONOMY

　　Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned on Thursday about the growing possibility of national and global recession, arguing that "it's hard for people to have confidence" as federal interest rates are already low and President Donald Trump has launched trade disputes with allies and adversaries alike.

　　During an interview with CNN, Summers pointed to long-term yields being less than short-term yields, the decline in the stock market, a struggling manufacturing sector and issues with economies around the world. "These are the kinds of things that tend to proceed recessions," he said, putting the odds at "just below or just above 50-50" for a recession to begin in the next year.

　　"It's hard for people to have confidence in the resilience of the economy," Summers, who also previously served as the director of the National Economic Council and the chief economist at the World Bank asserted. "Hard because interest rates are so low, there's not much room for the [Federal Reserve] to cut them further. Hard because we already fired the fiscal cannon on a misguided tax cut targeted to the highest income people who least need the money. And hard, frankly, because of doubts about the competence of the economic team in place."

　　Summers continued, warning that the odds of a united international response to global recession, such as what happened back in 2008 and 2009, was unlikely. "Today we've got a United States who's at economic war with most of the rest of the world, feuding with Europe, feuding with North America and certainly feuding with China."

　　Experts have warned of global recession in countries around the world, from Asia to Europe and North America. This week, markets have shown increasing signs of weakness, seen by analysts as at least partly a response to Trump's threat of adding tariffs to the $300 billion remaining Chinese imports to the U.S. Although stocks temporarily surged with an announcement on Monday that some of the tariffs would be postponed or suspended entirely for the Christmas season, they dipped again on Wednesday.

　　"Economic data have softened and are increasingly sending recession signals, particularly from the industrial side," Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch told The New York Times. "Trade is a huge part of it," she added

　　Elise Jordan, a former aide in the George W. Bush White House, argued that an economic recession would be a major blow to Trump's re-election chances.

　　"It's political suicide," Jordan said Thursday on MSNBC's Morning Joe. "I mean, Donald Trump's political strength is premised on the idea that he has maintained and protected and cultivated a strong economy."