TAKE with里克·克莱因
终极破坏者需要最后一击。
对于总统来说，这可能以两种方式之一发生唐纳德·特朗普-一个在周二晚上之前的几个小时，另一个紧接其后。
两党都承认的底线是:特朗普的竞选团队需要民调——事实上是所有的民调——来证明自己是错的。他们需要大量人群的形象在投票站转化为选举日的军队，以消除前副总统的优势乔·拜登几乎可以肯定的是，随着提前投票打破了新的记录。
至于其他方式，特朗普高级顾问杰森·米勒给出了一个暗示在美国广播公司的“本周”节目中星期天。米勒说——没有证据，也很不可信——总统将“获得超过290张选举人票”选举晚安。"
米勒说:“因此，无论他们试图做什么，无论他们试图进行什么样的狂欢或诉讼，无论他们试图完成什么样的胡说八道，我们仍然会有足够的选举人票让特朗普总统连任。”
特朗普周日表示，鉴于总统一再声称需要在11月3日确定获胜者，“这就是过去的情况，也应该是这样”，米勒强烈建议竞选团队将依靠不完整的投票结果来表明竞选已经结束。一个试图取消未计票的合法策略可能随之而来。
宾夕法尼亚州、威斯康星州和密歇根州等几个州不太可能在选举日晚上及时将早期投票列表，这意味着初步结果可能有利于特朗普，可能会产生误导。媒体组织，包括美国广播公司新闻如果没有比午夜前可能发布的数据更多的数据，就不会做出预测。
当然，过早宣布胜利没有法律效力。但这可能标志着对特朗普一再试图破坏的政治体系的最终考验。
的纲要玛丽·爱丽丝·帕克斯
这次选举可能是千禧一代的投票规模首次超过x一代。虽然千禧一代对党派认同持怀疑态度，但他们更有可能自称自由派。2016年，他们也更有可能投票给第三方。如果他们的投票率更接近全国平均水平，这一变化可能足以扭转局面，并巩固美国政治中一些严重的代际更替。
更年轻的选民也将受到密切关注。30岁以下的选民在投票中表示，他们已经准备好并渴望以创纪录的速度投票。
NYU 9月份的一项研究发现，与4年前的9月份相比，佐治亚州18至24岁的选民登记率上升了34%，全国范围内也有所上升。
在即将到来的早期投票数字中，与2016年相比，18-29岁和30-39岁之间的选民在总投票中的份额都有所增加。
然而，对许多年轻选民来说，投票可能很困难，尤其是习惯在校园附近投票的大学生。这么多远程学习的学生，给投票增加了一层挑战。
两年前，学生们在全国各地领导了要求枪支安全改革的令人震惊的抗议活动。从气候变化到教师工资，在本届政府期间，年轻人明显活跃在政治和社会高层——这一事实只是与乔治·弗洛伊德的死亡和今年夏天随后对种族正义的大力推动联系在一起。但是，一如既往，激进主义会转化为投票吗?
小费凯尔西洗涤和亚当·凯尔西
由于9300万人在本次选举的早些时候投票，美国出现了前所未有的投票率——但投票率并没有在每个州引起轩然大波。
根据美国选举项目在2016年大选中，全国选民已经投下了总票数的67.7%。在南方三个战场州，早期选民投票率具有历史意义。在南方各州，亲自投票已经结束，尽管选民仍然可以通过缺席邮寄投票参与早期投票。
根据Target Early提供的数据，德克萨斯州在2016年大选中已经超过了总票数，选民在2016年大选中投出的票数占总票数的106.6%。2016年统计的总票数中，格鲁吉亚人投了92.6%，佛罗里达人投了85.8%。在全国范围内，45个州加上华盛顿特区允许选民以邮件为借口投票，或者允许选民以新冠肺炎为借口。德克萨斯州不允许缺席邮件投票，除非选民有冠状病毒以外的借口，所以历史性的提前投票可能会导致选民对大流行期间选举日的单日投票持谨慎态度。早期的大规模投票也可能是充满活力的南方选民的结果。
相比之下，北部战场州没有出现大量提前投票的情况。在关键的战场州宾夕法尼亚州，2016年大选计票的总票数中只有37.2%投了票——这可能表明许多宾夕法尼亚人尚未决定或将在最后几天决定。在密歇根州，该州在2016年选举中获得了54.6%的选票，而威斯康星州获得了61%。
还有一件事
这场流行病与经济的较量决定了总统竞选在两个关键战场上的走向，佛罗里达州保持着举棋不定的地位，而乔·拜登在宾夕法尼亚州的赛季决赛中略有领先美国广播公司新闻/华盛顿邮报民意调查。两个州都没什么变化。在佛罗里达州，唐纳德·特朗普在可能的选民中有50%的人支持拜登的48%;在9月20日的美国广播公司/邮报民意调查中，这一比例为51%-47%。特朗普在2016年的940多万张选票中赢得了112，911张选票。在宾夕法尼亚州，竞选率为51%-44%，拜登-特朗普，民主党领先7个百分点;相比之下，上个月底的利润率为9个百分点。在这里，特朗普2016年的胜利甚至更小:在近620万张选票中获得44292张。
The Note: On election eve, Trump needs disruptions to pull off win
The TAKE withRick Klein
The ultimate disruptor needs one last shocker.
That can happen in one of two ways for PresidentDonald Trump-- one in a scenario that would play out in the hours before Tuesday night, the other immediately after.
The bottom line that both parties acknowledge: The Trump campaign needs the polls -- virtually all of them -- to be wrong. They need the images of massive crowds to translate into an Election Day army at the polls, to wipe out the advantage that former Vice PresidentJoe Bidenhas almost certainly built up as early voting smashes new records.
As for the other way, Trump senior adviser Jason Miller offered a hinton ABC's "This Week"on Sunday. Miller said -- without evidence, and quite implausibly -- that the president would be "over 290 electoral votes onelectionnight."
"So no matter what they tried to do, what kind of hijinks or lawsuits or whatever kind of nonsense they try to pull off, we're still going to have enough electoral votes to get President Trump reelected," Miller said.
Given the president's repeated assertions that a winner needs to be determined on Nov. 3 -- "that's the way it's been and the way it should be," Trump said Sunday -- Miller is strongly suggesting that the campaign would rely on incomplete voting results to suggest that the race is over. A legal strategy of seeking to disqualify uncounted votes could follow.
Several states -- Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan among them -- are unlikely to tabulate early votes promptly on election night, meaning initial results may favor Trump, perhaps misleadingly. Media organizations,including ABC News, will not make projections without far more data than is likely to be released before midnight.
A premature declaration of victory has no force of law, of course. But it may mark the ultimate test of a political system that Trump has sought to disrupt, time and again.
The RUNDOWN withMaryAlice Parks
This election could be the first time the size of the millennial vote surpasses that of Gen X. While millennials are leery of party identification, they are more likely to call themselves liberal. In 2016, they were also more likely to vote third party. Should their rate of turnout more closely match the national average, the change could be enough to swing the race and cement some serious generational turnover in U.S. politics.
Close attention will also be given to the even younger voters. Voters under 30 years old have suggested in polls that they are ready and eager to vote at record-breaking rates.
A study back in September from NYU found that voter registration among 18- to 24-year-olds was up 34% in Georgia compared to September four years ago -- and up nationwide too.
In the early voting numbers coming in, voters between 18-29 and between 30-39 have all increased their share of the total vote compared to 2016.
Still, casting that ballot could prove difficult for many young voters -- especially college students used to voting near campus. So many students studying remotely adds a layer of challenges for voting.
Two years ago, students led stunning protests around the country demanding gun safety reform. From climate change to teacher pay, young people have been visibly active in politics and socially engaged at high levels during this administration -- a fact only super-charged with George Floyd’s death and the powerful push for racial justice that followed this summer. But, as always, will activism translate to votes?
The TIP withKelsey WashandAdam Kelsey
As 93 million people have cast their ballots early this election, the United States has seen unprecedented turnout -- but the turnout has not made waves in every state.
According to theUnited States Elections Project, voters nationally have cast 67.7% of the total votes cast in the 2016 general election. In three Southern battleground states, the early voter turnout is historic. In-person voting has since concluded in the Southern states, although voters can still participate in the early vote with absentee mail-in voting.
According to data presented by Target Early, Texas has surpassed the total vote in the 2016 general election, with voters casting 106.6% of the total votes counted in the 2016 general election. Georgians have cast 92.6% of the total vote counted in 2016, and Floridians have cast 85.8%. Across the nation, 45 states plus D.C. allow for voters to vote by mail with an excuse or allow voters to use COVID-19 as an excuse. Texas does not allow mail-in absentee voting unless a voter has an excuse beyond coronavirus concerns, so the historic early turnout could result in voters wary of Election Day's single-day turnout in the middle of a pandemic. The large early vote could also be a result of energized Southern voters.
In contrast, Northern battleground states did not see a large influx of early voting. In the key battleground state of Pennsylvania, only 37.2% of the total vote counted in the 2016 general election has been cast -- possibly suggesting that many Pennsylvanians are undecided or will decide in the final days. In Michigan, the state has seen 54.6% of total votes cast in 2016 election, while Wisconsin has seen 61%.
ONE MORE THING
The pandemic versus the economy defines the presidential contest in two key battlegrounds, with Florida holding firm to its toss-up status while Joe Biden leads slightly in Pennsylvania in the season's finalABC News/Washington Post polls. There's little change in either state. In Florida, Donald Trump has 50% support among likely voters to Biden's 48%; it was 51%-47% in an ABC/Post poll Sept. 20. Trump won the state by 112,911 votes out of more than 9.4 million cast in 2016. In Pennsylvania, the race stands at 51%-44%, Biden-Trump, a 7-point advantage for the Democrat; that compares with a 9-point margin late last month. Here, Trump's 2016 win was even narrower: 44,292 votes out of nearly 6.2 million cast.
