TAKE with里克·克莱因
下周的这个时候-大概需要几天时间-最后几天的照片选举会被作为证据事情当然会有结果就像他们那样。
周四两位总统都将出席唐纳德·特朗普和前副总统乔·拜登到佛罗里达州坦帕市,参加集会就在选举日的五天前。
特朗普将吸引大量人群。他几乎肯定会嘲笑拜登没有做同样的事情——希望他吸引人群的能力能激发他的支持者的热情。
路透社|盖蒂图片
2020年10月27日，民主党总统候选人乔·拜登在亚特兰大的竞选站发表讲话，唐纳德·特朗普总统在内布拉斯加州奥马哈的竞选集会上发表讲话。
拜登将举行一场“汽车拉力赛”，在那里喇叭声将比歌声更普遍。他几乎肯定会抨击特朗普在大流行期间举行大规模公众集会——希望他的选择更好地符合选民的生活方式。
在某种程度上，特朗普和拜登已经根据当前的特殊情况调整了他们的竞选活动。从另一个角度来看，他们正在用图像来表达更多关于他们作为领导者的事情——他们如何看待危机的严重性，以及一个领导者应该如何行动。
民调、提前投票甚至新冠肺炎的支持率飙升，表明拜登和他对竞选的看法处于有利环境。
然而，特朗普的政治生涯建立在一种感觉上，即他比任何数字都更清楚。别的不说，随着竞选的结束，他会像一开始那样行事。
的纲要玛丽·爱丽丝·帕克斯
将近一半，或49.2%佛罗里达的登记选民已经在今年进行了投票，这意味着两位候选人周四在那里竞选时都在吸引更少的潜在选票。
与注册的共和党人相比，提前投票的注册民主党人的优势也在慢慢缩小。
根据Target Early汇编和分析的研究，全国范围内，几乎所有人口的提前投票率都大幅上升，专家们继续认为，今年全国的投票率将达到创纪录水平。
昌丹·卡纳/法新社通过盖蒂图像
2020年10月28日，迈阿密戴德地区图书馆，选民们提前投票。
两倍多的西班牙裔选民有已经投票了与四年前相比。与2016年同期相比，黑人选民的提前投票也增加了200多万张。
也就是说，与四年前的这个时候相比，非洲裔美国人在早期投票总数中所占的份额实际上略小。作为早期投票的一个百分比，受过大学教育的白人选民在整个早期投票中所占的份额比2016年要大得多。
超过7500万人已经将选票存入银行，略高于2016年1.368亿投票人数的一半。
小费约翰·维霍维克
从乔·拜登宣布他的总统竞选开始，很明显，他作为巴拉克·奥巴马的副总统的八年将是他自己任期内对美国人民的宣传的核心部分。“当巴拉克和我……”在拜登的竞选活动中，这句话几乎和“事情是这样的”一样常见
如今，在奥巴马的继任者呼吁他“被锁起来”的竞选即将结束之际，拜登的竞选团队再次指望他对该党最受欢迎的人物的忠诚服务，以使他上位。周六，当这两个人在密歇根州的一次集会上第一次面对面出现时，拜登的竞选团队希望奥巴马能够为尚未决定或脱离的选民带来灵感和怀旧情绪的有效结合。
林恩·斯莱德基/美联社
2020年10月24日，佛罗里达州北迈阿密，前总统巴拉克·奥巴马在佛罗里达国际大学为民主党总统候选人、前副总统乔·拜登竞选时发表讲话。
在这场残酷竞选的最后几天，他们希望这一形象能留在选民的脑海中，这场竞选仍有许多民主党人，包括奥巴马本人，在近四年前失去白宫的自满情绪中保持警惕。
“我们上次沾沾自喜。人们有点懒。人们认为事情理所当然。看看发生了什么。这次不行。奥巴马本周早些时候在奥兰多警告说。
播放列表
美国广播公司新闻“从这里开始”播客。周四上午的一集由《五·三十八》主编内特·西尔弗(Nate Silver)主演，他描绘了唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)总统可能的选举胜利，尽管前副总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)的民调一直领先。肖恩斯坦媒体、政治和公共政策中心的琼·多诺万告诉我们，为什么参议院共和党人周三要盘问科技高管。美国广播公司新闻的外国记者詹姆斯·朗曼描述了他与科学家一起寻找世界上下一种致命病毒的时间。http://apple.co/2HPocUL
美国广播公司新闻“发电站政治”播客。在早些时候的投票中，格鲁吉亚的投票率已经达到创纪录的水平，国务卿布拉德·拉芬伯格预测选举日之后，多达600万选民可能会在今年的大选中投票，而2016年为410万。共和党人拉芬斯珀格对美国广播公司新闻政治主任里克·克莱因和白宫首席记者乔纳森·卡尔说:“在星期二投票之前，我们很可能会有410万选民投票。”。“早在一月份，我们预测有500万选民。显然，我们应该把目标定得高一点。...我想现在我们大概有600万选民。”https://apple.co/31TJ451
五点三十八分政治播客。随着选举日的临近，今年的一个大问题不仅仅是谁会赢，而是我们什么时候知道谁是赢家。为了应对冠状病毒大流行，各州改变了投票规则，通过邮件投票的人比以往任何时候都多。对许多州来说，清点所有的邮寄选票将是一项新任务，这可能需要时间。与以往的选举不同——当时我们预计在选举之夜结束时知道结果——美国人被警告说，今年可能需要几天或更长时间才能得到结果。在《五·三十八政治》播客的这一部分，盖伦·德鲁克与美国广播公司新闻部选举执行主任丹·默克进行了交谈，他负责监督该网络的决策台。默克解释了美国广播公司新闻将如何预测单个州的获胜者和整体总统竞选，以及我们何时可以期待这些预测。
Contrasting images match competing themes in final election stretch
The TAKE withRick Klein
This time next week --give or take a few days, perhaps-- the images of the closing days of thiselectionwill be held out as evidence that ofcourse things would turn outthe way they did.
Thursday will bring both PresidentDonald Trumpand former Vice PresidentJoe BidentoTampa, Florida,for ralliesjust five days before Election Day.
Trump will draw an enormous crowd. He will almost certainly mock Biden for not doing the same -- hoping his ability to draw a crowd inspires enthusiasm among his supporters.
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaks at a campaign stop in Atlanta and President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Omaha, Neb., Oct. 27, 2020.
Biden will hold a "drive-in rally" where honks will be more prevalent than chants. He will almost certainly attack Trump for holding a massive public gathering in the midst of the pandemic -- hoping his choices match better with how voters are living their lives.
On one level, Trump and Biden have adapted their campaigns to the extraordinary circumstances of the moment. Considered another way, they are using images to say something more about themselves as leaders -- in how they view the severity of the crisis, and how a leader should act.
The numbers -- polling, early vote and even COVID-19 spikes -- point toward a favorable environment for Biden and his view of the race.
Trump's political career, though, has been built on a sense that he knows better than any numbers might suggest. If nothing else, as the campaign ends, he will act like he has from the start.
The RUNDOWN withMaryAlice Parks
Nearly half, or 49.2% ofFlorida's registered votershave already voted this year, meaning that both candidates are appealing to a smaller slice of potential votes as they campaign there Thursday.
The margin of registered Democrats who have voted early, compared to registered Republicans, is slowly closing too.
Nationwide, there is a dramatic uptick in early voting across almost all demographics, according to research compiled and analyzed by Target Early, and experts continue to think the country is headed towards a record turnout year.
Voters cast their early ballots at the Miami Dade Regional Library in Miami, Oct. 28, 2020.
Twice as many Hispanic votershavealready cast their ballotscompared to this time four years ago. Early voting is also up by over 2 million votes among Black voters compared to this time in 2016.
That said, African Americans are actually making up a slightly smaller share of the total early vote than they were this time four years ago. As a percentage of the early vote, white college-educated voters specifically are making up a much bigger slice of the entire early vote than they were in 2016.
More than 75 million people have already banked their ballots -- slightly more than half of the 136.8 million people who voted in 2016.
The TIP withJohn Verhovek
From the moment Joe Biden announced his presidential campaign, it was crystal clear that his eight years as Barack Obama's vice president would be a central part of his pitch to the American people for a term of his own. "When Barack and I..." was as nearly a common a phrase on the campaign trail for Biden as, "here's the deal."
Now in the waning days of a race that has seen Obama's successor call for him to be "locked up," Biden's campaign is banking once again on his loyal service to the party's most popular figure to put him over the top. When the two men appear together for the first time in person this cycle at a rally on Saturday in Michigan, Biden's campaign is hoping Obama is able to conjure up an effective combination of inspiration and nostalgia for voters who are undecided or disengaged.
Former President Barack Obama speaks as he campaigns for Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden at Florida International University, Oct. 24, 2020, in North Miami, Fla.
It's an image they hope sticks in the minds of voters in the final days of a brutal campaign that still has many Democrats, including Obama himself, guarding against the complacency that lost them the White House almost four years ago.
"We were complacent last time. Folks got a little lazy. Folks took things for granted. And look what happened. Not this time. Not in this election," Obama warned in Orlando earlier this week.
THE PLAYLIST
ABC News' "Start Here" podcast.Thursday morning's episode features FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver, who maps out a possible election victory for President Donald Trump despite former Vice President Joe Biden's consistent polling lead. Joan Donovan from the Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Policy tells us why Senate Republicans were grilling tech executives Wednesday. And ABC News foreign correspondent James Longman describes his time with scientists on the hunt for the world's next deadly virus.http://apple.co/2HPocUL
ABC News' "Powerhouse Politics" podcast.Georgia has already seen record turnout during early voting, and on Wednesday,Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger predictedthat after Election Day, as many as 6 million voters could have cast ballots in this year's general election, up from 4.1 million in 2016. "We very well could hit 4.1 million voters before we hit Tuesday," Raffensperger, a Republican, told ABC News Political Director Rick Klein and Chief White House Correspondent Jonathan Karl. "Back in January, we predicted 5 million voters. Obviously, we should've aimed a little bit higher. ... I think now we'll be probably in the neighborhood of 6 million voters."https://apple.co/31TJ451
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast.As we head toward Election Day, one of the big questions this year is not just who will win, but when we will know who the winner is. States have changed their voting rules in response to the coronavirus pandemic, and more people are voting by mail than ever before. Counting all those mail ballots will be a new task for many states, and that could take time. Unlike in past elections -- when we expected to know the results by the end of election night -- Americans are being cautioned that it could take days or longer to get results this year. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with the executive director of elections at ABC News, Dan Merkle, who oversees the network's Decision Desk. Merkle explains how ABC News will go about projecting the winner of individual states and the overall presidential race, as well as when we might be able to expect those projections.https://53eig.ht/34C5CsY
