纽约——总统政治进展迅速。我们将在2020年竞选活动的新一周看到:
一般天数选举:15
离下次总统辩论还有几天:3
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叙述
总统唐纳德·特朗普公开考虑失败的前景，而民主党挑战者乔·拜登警告他的支持者不要过度自信，因为2020年总统选举快到它的最后一天了。
已经有超过2200万张选票，拜登在全国民调中的领先优势似乎一如既往。他在包括佛罗里达州在内的一些战场州的优势正在缩小，但他迫使特朗普在爱荷华州和佐治亚州等州处于守势，而民主党人六个月前并没有认真期望赢得这些州。
虽然竞选活动在纸面上似乎朝着相反的方向发展，但在竞选过程中却是一种非常不同的感觉。特朗普吸引了大量人群，让人想起2016年的最后几天，拜登坚持他的谨慎方法，在小事件上更注重遵守疾病控制和预防中心的社交距离建议，而不是激励他的支持者。随着前总统巴拉克·奥巴马代表他上路，他将在本周得到提升。
虽然将会有大量的行动，但本周将集中在周四的最后辩论上，这可能是特朗普改变这次选举方向的最后也是最好的机会。
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大问题
辩论是特朗普最后的自救机会吗？
我们过去当然质疑过辩论的重要性，但周四在纳什维尔的对峙对特朗普来说是一个巨大的机会，可以产生一些急需的势头。在选举日之前，将不会有更多有说服力的选民关注共和党总统的信息。
特朗普承受不起又一次糟糕的表现。他愤怒和咄咄逼人的姿态破坏了第一场辩论，被广泛认为是一个错误，这有助于拜登扩大他的民调优势。
但拜登也面临巨大压力。鉴于特朗普一再质疑这位77岁的前副总统的年龄和精神健康——公平还是不公平——拜登不能在他一生中最大的政治舞台上有一个“高级时刻”或类似的时刻。
新新冠肺炎浪潮会影响投票吗？
离选举日还有两周，冠状病毒感染飙升至7月份以来的最高水平。周末，至少有10个州报告了有史以来最高的单日感染人数，一些卫生专家预测，在不久的将来，美国每天可能有10万人感染。
从多个方面来看，这对美国来说都是坏消息，这给已经被投票准入问题困扰的选举增加了一层新的不确定性。从政策和政治角度来看，这更证明了特朗普未能控制全国一个世纪以来最严重的健康危机。但考虑到时机，这也引发了选民是否会改变行为以保护自己的真正问题。
迄今为止，提前投票的人数一直在打破记录。目前还不清楚这种情况会持续到什么程度，也不清楚邮件投票的激增是否会给已经达到极限的拼凑式选举系统增加压力。许多人最终期望一旦所有的选票都被统计出来，会有大量的投票，但是民意测验专家会告诉你这还远远不能保证。
共和党人的钱怎么了？
无论特朗普是赢还是输，他管理竞选财务的努力是影响选举最后阶段的主要因素。根据媒体跟踪公司Kantar/CMAG的数据，在接下来的两周内，特朗普和他专注于总统选举的盟友在政治广告上的支出比民主党的1.413亿美元多出7070万美元。
在职者的这种劣势在现代从未发生过。这迫使特朗普在他最负担不起的时候做出痛苦的决定。
面对现金短缺，特朗普基本上退出了中西部的电视广告，将竞选活动的大部分广告投资转移到佛罗里达州、北卡罗来纳州、亚利桑那州和佐治亚州以及宾夕法尼亚州。
自满是民主党真正关心的问题吗？
毫无疑问，两党中最有激情的党羽今年秋天都在热烈参与。然而，鉴于拜登可能取得大胜，不经常投票的选民——包括年轻人和通常支持民主党的非裔美国人——是否会感到同样的紧迫感，这一点令人怀疑。
对自满的担忧促使拜登的竞选经理珍·欧玛利·狄龙在周末发布了一份备忘录，提醒潜在的支持者类似的动态塑造了2016年选举的最后几周。
欧玛利·狄龙写道:“事实是，这场比赛比我们在推特和电视上看到的一些专家所认为的要近得多。”。“如果说我们从2016年学到了什么，那就是我们不能低估唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)或他在竞选的最后几天通过他掌握的任何诽谤或秘密策略重新回到竞争中的能力。”
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最后的想法
我们对特朗普和拜登在周末竞选中截然不同的步伐感到震惊。特朗普一直是更积极的竞选者，但我们预计拜登最终会支持他。没有那么多。
比如周六，拜登一整天都不在状态。特朗普在密歇根州和威斯康星州竞选，并在内华达州结束了他的一天。在选举日之前只剩下两个星期六了，以防有人计票。
拜登本周将从奥巴马那里得到一些帮助，他的竞选伙伴卡玛拉·哈里斯也有一个积极的日程安排。拜登还有一个主要的广告优势，我们上面提到过。但是如果拜登最终输掉这场选举，他可能不能说他把一切都抛在了脑后。
2020 Watch: Debate a chance for Trump to generate momentum
NEW YORK -- Presidential politics move fast. What we’re watching heading into a new week on the 2020 campaign:
Days to general election: 15
Days to next scheduled presidential debate: 3
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THE NARRATIVE
President Donald Trump is openly contemplating the prospect of losing, while Democratic challenger Joe Biden is warning his supporters against overconfidence as the 2020 presidential election speeds into its closing days.
With more than 22 million votes already cast, Biden’s lead in the national polls appears to be as strong as ever. His advantage in some battleground states, including Florida, is narrowing, but he’s forced Trump on the defensive in states like Iowa and Georgia that Democrats six months ago didn't seriously expect to win.
While the campaigns appear to be moving in opposite directions on paper, it's a very different feeling on the campaign trail. Trump is drawing huge crowds reminiscent of 2016's final days, and Biden is sticking to his cautious approach with small events focused more on adhering to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s social distancing recommendations than energizing his supporters. He'll get a boost this week as former President Barack Obama hits the road on his behalf.
While there will be plenty of action, this week will center on Thursday's final debate, which may be Trump's last and best chance to change the direction of this election.
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THE BIG QUESTIONS
Is the debate Trump's last chance to save himself?
We've certainly questioned the significance of debates in the past, but Thursday's faceoff in Nashville represents a huge opportunity for Trump to generate some badly needed momentum. There will be no moment before Election Day in which more persuadable voters are paying attention to the Republican president's message.
Trump cannot afford another bad performance. His angry and aggressive posture that marred the first debate was widely considered a blunder, and it helped Biden extend his polling advantage.
But there is also significant pressure on Biden. Given Trump's persistent questions about the 77-year-old former vice president's age and mental health — fair or unfair — Biden cannot afford to have a “senior moment” or anything like it on the biggest political stage of his life.
Will the new COVID-19 surge impact voting?
Two weeks before Election Day, coronavirus infections are surging to their highest levels since July. At least 10 states reported their highest single-day number of infections ever over the weekend, and some health experts are predicting the possibility of 100,000 daily U.S. infections in the near future.
This is bad news for the nation on multiple fronts, and it adds a new layer of uncertainty to an election already plagued by ballot access questions. From a policy and political perspective, this is more evidence of Trump's failure to control the nation's worst health crisis in a century. But given the timing, it also raises real questions about whether voters might alter their behavior to protect themselves.
Early voting numbers have been on pace to shatter records so far. It's unclear to what extent that will continue and whether a surge of mail balloting might add stress to a patchwork elections system already stretched to its limit. Many people are ultimately expecting a massive turnout once all the votes are counted, but pollsters will tell you that's far from guaranteed.
What happened to the Republicans' money?
Whether he wins or loses, Trump's struggle to manage his campaign finances is a major factor shaping the election's final stretch. Over the next two weeks, Trump and his allies focused on the presidential election are being outspent on political advertising $70.7 million to the Democrats' $141.3 million, according to the media tracking firm Kantar/CMAG.
That disadvantage for an incumbent has never happened in the modern era. And it's forcing Trump to make painful decisions when he can least afford them.
Facing a cash shortfall, Trump has largely retreated from TV advertising in the Midwest, shifting much of his campaign's advertising investments to states such as Florida, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia, as well as Pennsylvania.
Is complacency a real concern for Democrats?
There's no doubt that the most passionate partisans in both parties are fervently engaged this fall. There is doubt, however, whether infrequent voters — including young people and African Americans who typically support Democrats — will feel the same urgency to show up given the possibility that Biden could score a blowout victory.
Fears of complacency prompted Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon to issue a memo over the weekend reminding would-be supporters of similar dynamics that shaped the final weeks of the 2016 election.
“The reality is that this race is far closer than some of the punditry we’re seeing on Twitter and on TV would suggest,” O'Malley Dillon wrote. “If we learned anything from 2016, it’s that we cannot underestimate Donald Trump or his ability to claw his way back into contention in the final days of a campaign, through whatever smears or underhanded tactics he has at his disposal.”
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THE FINAL THOUGHT
We were struck by the dramatically different pace of the Trump and Biden campaigns over the weekend. Trump has always been the more aggressive campaigner, but we expected Biden to pick it up eventually. Not so much.
On Saturday, for example, Biden was down all day. Trump campaigned in Michigan and Wisconsin and finished his day in Nevada. Only two more Saturdays remain before Election Day, in case anyone is counting.
Biden will get some help from Obama this week, and running mate Kamala Harris has an aggressive schedule as well. Biden also has a major advertising advantage, as we mentioned above. But if Biden ultimately loses this election, he may not be able to say he left it all out on the field.
