如果总统唐纳德·特朗普美国最大的敌人一直是他自己，前副总统乔·拜登目前最重要的对手可能是他自己的政党——它的记忆，它的焦虑和它不断增长的期望。
离选举日还有15天，任何诚实的阅读数据表明这是拜登的败局。这场比赛顽固的基本面与新冠肺炎钉鞋和总统分散的信息，而2800万美国人和计票员已经投了票。
当然，民主党人害怕拜登仍然会输。痴迷数字的圈子里的议论是关于政党登记差距和非大学白人选民的提前投票;拜登竞选团队的说法是，不要把股票放在公共投票中，并期待一个糟糕的结局。
海蒂·古特曼/ABC
2020年10月15日，费城，美国广播公司新闻市政厅，前副总统乔·拜登回答了一名观众的问题。
很容易看到特朗普对拜登和他的家人的后期攻击，以及他与共和党人的争吵，并认为这是自我毁灭或根本不相干。将得克萨斯州共和党参议员约翰·科宁加入竞争激烈的现任者名单，以拉近他与特朗普的距离，以及欢迎本·萨斯参议员，R-Neb，回到特朗普的Twitter攻击名单。
但即使是这些故事情节也让民主党人感到痛苦，他们记得上一次竞选的最后几周是多么混乱。自信的跑步不如害怕的跑步有吸引力，至少现在是这样。
特朗普总统和民主党总统候选人乔·拜登周日会见了教会领袖，并认为他们站在历史的正确一边。
特朗普总统在内华达州的一次教堂仪式上说，“我们碰巧是对的。所以，在11月3日或更早的时候离开那里，做你该做的事情。”
与此同时，拜登在中途与非裔美国神职人员举行了一场虚拟活动美国北卡罗来纳州超过100万选民提前投票。
尽管上周晚些时候在这个关键的战场州亲自投票刚刚开始，但迄今已有80多万北卡罗莱纳州人参加了投票，另有60万人投了缺席票。
罗伯特·施密特/法新社，通过盖蒂图像
2020年10月18日，在北卡罗莱纳州杜伦河畔高中的竞选活动中，民主党总统候选人、前副总统乔·拜登在演讲结束时向同情者挥手致意。
“我不祈求上帝保护我。我祈祷上帝给我力量，让我看看其他人在处理什么，”拜登对参加他的活动的宗教领袖说。
“让我在你的祈祷中。祈祷我有能力站出来做好这份工作。【因为】唐纳德·特朗普再多四年，几代人都会从根本上改变这个国家的性质。请为我祈祷，”拜登说。
随着乔·拜登在筹款方面对唐纳德·特朗普的优势在20世纪90年代上升总统选举的最后阶段此外，外界支持拜登的努力正在进一步扩大直播战斗中的资金缺口。在选举日之前的最后两周，拜登竞选根据媒体研究公司Kantar/CMAG的广告支出数据，支持拜登的外部努力总共预留了1.415亿美元的电视播放时间，是特朗普竞选团队和亲特朗普的外部团体同期7，080万美元的两倍。
布伦丹·斯米卢斯基/法新社通过盖蒂图像
2020年10月15日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在北卡罗来纳州格林维尔的皮特-格林维尔机场举行的集会上发表讲话。
而拜登竞选本身胜过特朗普竞选5400万至4500万美元，其中大部分缺口来自支持拜登和亲特朗普的外部团体的支出。由未来前进行动委员会(Future Forward PAC)、独立美国行动委员会(Independence USA PAC)和优先美国行动委员会(Priorities USA Action)领导的支持拜登的外部团体在过去两周内为播出时间预留了8800万美元，是包括美国第一行动委员会(America First Action)、恢复行动委员会(Restore PAC)和保护美国行动委员会(Preserve America PAC)在内的支持特朗普的外部团体在此期间预留的2
佛罗里达和北卡罗来纳是拜登竞选和总统竞选的两个最大消费市场特朗普竞选而双方的外部团体正在进一步推动宾夕法尼亚州的支出。双方都在密歇根州和威斯康星州等关键州投入巨资，拜登的团队在亚利桑那州、内华达州和德克萨斯州进行了额外投资，而特朗普的团队选择在俄亥俄州和明尼苏达州投入更多资金。
美国广播公司新闻“从这里开始”播客。周一上午的节目中，美国广播公司(ABC)“夜生活”联合主播朱胡昌(Juju Chang)在接受密歇根州州长格雷琴·惠特默(Gretchen Whitmer)采访时表示，特朗普总统在一次竞选集会上鼓励人们“把她锁起来”反对州长。然后，美国广播公司新闻撰稿人约翰·布朗斯坦博士解释了最近新冠肺炎病例激增的不同之处。美国广播公司新闻外国记者詹姆斯·朗曼从法国报道了巴黎附近一名教师被斩首的可怕事件。
五点三十八分政治播客。在过去的一周半里，民主党赢得参议院的几率在我们的预测中有所上升，从63%上升到73%。在《538政治》播客的这一期《模范谈话》中，内特·西尔弗和盖伦·德鲁克讨论了这一转变的原因以及最近在关键州的民调结果。
The Note: For Democrats, 2016's memories mix with 2020's anxieties
The TAKE withRick Klein
If PresidentDonald Trump's worst enemy has always been himself, former Vice President Joe Biden's most important opponent at the moment might be his own party -- its memories, its anxieties andits growing expectations.
Fifteen days out from Election Day, any honest reading ofthe datasuggests that this is Biden's race to lose. The race's stubborn fundamentals are combining withCOVID-19 spikesand the president's scattered messaging, while 28 million Americans and counting have already cast ballots.
Democrats, of course, are terrified that Biden could still lose. The buzz in numbers-obsessed circles is about party registration gaps and early vote spikes among white, non-college voters; the word from the Biden campaign is not to put stock in public polling and to expect a nasty finish.
Former Vice President Joe Biden answers a question from a member of the audience after an ABC News Town Hall in Philadelphia, Oct. 15, 2020.
It's easy to see Trump's late-stage attacks on Biden and his family, along with his squabbles with fellow Republicans, and view it as self-destructive or simply irrelevant. Add Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, to a growing list of incumbents in tight races to put distance between himself and Trump, andwelcome Sen. Ben Sasse, R-Neb., back to Trump's Twitter attack list.
But even those story lines carry a gnawing familiarity to Democrats who remember how messy the last few weeks of the last campaign really were. Running confident is less appealing than running scared, at least for now.
The RUNDOWN withMaryAlice Parks
Both President Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden met with church leaders Sunday and argued they were on the right side of history.
President Trump, at a church service in Nevada, stated, "We happen to be right. So, get out there on Nov. 3 or sooner and do your thing."
Meanwhile, Biden held a virtual event with African American clergy during his swing throughNorth Carolina, where over a million voters have cast their ballots early.
Though in-person voting just began in the key battleground state late last week, over 800,000 North Carolinians have participated so far and another 600,000 have sent in absentee ballots.
Democratic presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden waves to sympathizers at the end of his speech at the Riverside High School in Durham, North Carolina during a campaign stop, Oct. 18, 2020.
"I don't pray for God to protect me. I pray for God to give me strength to see what other people are dealing with," Biden said to the faith leaders attending his event.
"Keep me in your prayers. Pray I have capacity to step up and do this job. [Because] four more years of Donald Trump will fundamentally change the nature of this country for several generations. Pray for me please," Biden said.
The TIP withSoo Rin Kim
As Joe Biden's fundraising advantage over Donald Trump mounts in thefinal stretch of the presidential election, outside efforts supporting Biden are further widening the money gap in the on-air battle. In the final two weeks until Election Day,the Biden campaignand pro-Biden outside efforts have reserved a total of $141.5 million of television airtime, twice the $70.8 million that the Trump campaign and pro-Trump outside groups have during the same period, according to ad spending data from media research firm Kantar/CMAG.
President Donald Trump speaks at a rally held at Pitt-Greenville Airport in Greenville, N.C., Oct. 15, 2020.
While the Biden campaign itself isoutspending the Trump campaign$54 million to $45 million, much of that gap comes from spending from pro-Biden and pro-Trump outside groups. Pro-Biden outside groups, led by Future Forward PAC, Independence USA PAC and Priorities USA Action, have $88 million reserved for airtime in the last two weeks, more than three times the $26 million pro-Trump outside groups, including America First Action, Restoration PAC and Preserve America PAC, have reserved during that time.
Florida and North Carolina are the two biggest spending markets for both the Biden campaign and theTrump campaign, while outside groups from both sides are further driving up the spending in Pennsylvania. Both sides are also spending heavily in key states like Michigan and Wisconsin, with Biden's team making additional investments in Arizona, Nevada and Texas, while Trump's team is choosing to spend more in Ohio and Minnesota.
THE PLAYLIST
ABC News' "Start Here" Podcast.Monday morning's episode features ABC "Nightline" co-anchor Juju Chang on her interview with Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer as President Trump encourages "lock her up" chants against the governor at a campaign rally. Then, ABC News contributor Dr. John Brownstein explains what's different about the latest surge in COVID-19 cases. And ABC News Foreign Correspondent James Longman reports from France on the gruesome beheading of a teacher near Paris.http://apple.co/2HPocUL
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast.Over the past week and a half, Democrats' chances of winning the Senate have ticked up in our forecast, from a 63% chance to a 73% chance. In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what is responsible for the shift and what recent polling looks like in key states.https://apple.co/23r5y7w
