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2020年的选民在投票时应该知道什么——以及什么时候期待结果

2020-10-19 21:15   美国新闻网   - 

今年的将军选举正在成为历史书上的一页。在预期的邮寄投票记录、提前投票激增和一系列新的冠状病毒相关安全预防措施之间,全球大流行几乎塑造了投票的方方面面。

几个月来,州和地方选举官员一直在为这一最不寻常的选举周期做准备。随着所有50个州的提前投票已经开始,选民们可以期待在11月3日之前以及之后发生什么。

PHOTO: Workers drop voters ballots into a secure box at a ballot drop off location on Oct. 13, 2020, in Austin, Texas.

塞尔吉奥·弗洛雷斯/盖蒂影像公司

2020年10月13日,德克萨斯州奥斯汀,工人们在投票站将选民选票投入一个安全的盒子里。

邮寄投票通常是生活在海外的人(如军队)使用的一种服务,但越来越受欢迎,在这场流行病中,邮寄投票具有了新的意义,在本次大选周期中,迄今已有8000多万人要求邮寄投票,是上一次总统选举的两倍,占2016年总投票数的一半以上。

根据国务卿办公室的数据,截至10月14日,加州已有超过150万张邮件投票被退回,远远超过2016年同一季节的15万张。这个州已经有相当多的选民选择通过邮件投票。今年,该州还首次决定向所有活跃的选民邮寄选票,这是今年选举中更容易通过邮件投票的主要方式之一。

两党政策中心选举项目主任马修·韦尔告诉美国广播公司新闻,通过邮件投票“将是这个周期的真实故事”。“从2016年到2020年的跳跃将是巨大的,”他说。

在2016年大选中,33,378,450张缺席选票被退回美国选举援助委员会-占所有投票的23.7%。

基于新冠肺炎封锁开始以来初选的证据,两党政策中心估计的今年50%到70%的选票将会缺席。韦尔现在估计这个数字在这个范围的低端,指出“即使是50%也将是2016年的巨大增长。”

对于大选,至少有30个州加上哥伦比亚特区至少做了一些改变这将使选民在家投票变得更加容易和容易。这些变化包括取消严格的借口要求,或允许新冠肺炎的担忧成为缺席投票的有效借口,允许投票箱,在选举邮件上提供预付邮资,并主动发送所有活跃的注册选民申请,要求缺席投票,其中一些,如加州,跳过这一步,发送实际的选票。

韦尔指出,与过去的选举不同,党派倾向于邮寄选票。根据美国参议院的数据,与登记的共和党人相比,将近1000万登记的民主党人要求缺席投票美国选举项目佛罗里达大学的。

今年,唐纳德·特朗普总统一再试图通过对选民欺诈的虚假和阴谋指控,对邮寄投票产生怀疑,这加剧了复杂性。法律专家告诉美国广播公司新闻没有证据表明邮件投票存在广泛或系统的选民欺诈。

选民应该警惕邮寄选票的错误。在2016年的大选中,大约1% - 318,728%的缺席选票被否决选举援助委员会。该委员会表示,最常见的拒绝原因是“错过了截止日期,选票上的签名与州记录上的签名不匹配,以及选票上没有签名”。

根据美国广播公司新闻的分析,2018年的总体拒绝率仍然很低,但仍在增长,为1.4%。

“随着许多选民以前所未有的不同方式投票,”韦尔说,“我们会看到更多的缺席投票被拒绝吗?”

找出如何正确填写邮寄选票,避免被拒绝这里。

PHOTO: Boxes for Vote-by-Mail ballots that have been rejected or accepted due to signature discrepancies are set up at the Miami-Dade County Elections Department in Doral, Fla., Oct. 15, 2020.

乔·雷德尔/盖蒂影像公司

2020年10月15日,在佛罗里达州多拉尔市迈阿密-戴德县选举部举行的11月3日大选之前,迈阿密-戴德县拉票委员会召开会议,为因签名差异而被拒绝或接受的邮件投票设置投票箱。

长队与长等待

随着每个州的提前投票已经开始,一些县的亲自投票人数创下纪录。

在历史性的投票中,据报道在一些投票地点排起了长队——尽管专家们很快指出,长队不一定意味着长时间的等待,因此选民不应该被阻止投票。

“排长队不一定是坏事,”无党派法律和政策研究所布伦南司法中心的研究员汉娜·克莱恩告诉美国广播公司新闻。“希望这确实意味着投票站正在加强社交距离,人们在排队投票时保持距离,每次只允许这么多人进入投票区,以管理人群。”

她说,蜿蜒的队伍可能看起来令人望而生畏,但“不要让长长的队伍阻止你”。韦尔补充说,选民应该准备好看到他们。

PHOTO: People stand on line, spaced six apart due to COVID-19, in order to vote early at the Fairfax Government Center on September 18, 2020, in Fairfax, Va.

塔索斯·卡托普迪斯/盖蒂影像公司

2020年9月18日,在弗吉尼亚州费尔法克斯的费尔法克斯政府中心,人们站成一排,由于新冠肺炎的缘故,中间隔了六排

Klain说,这并不意味着长时间的等待不是一个问题,选举官员可能需要在早期投票过程中解决这些问题。由于冠状病毒,投票站的投票机数量可能会有所限制,以避免太多的人同时在里面。上周,当提前投票在佐治亚州开始时,需要等待一些时间达到五个小时。官员们上周表示,排长队的县正在尽可能增加投票设备。

德克萨斯州、北卡罗来纳州和内华达州等州的一些县正在实施在线等待技术,这样您就可以在投票站看到预期的等待时间。

“在我们的选举领域,这是一种更具前瞻性的技术应用,”克莱恩说。“看到这一点令人兴奋,也很有帮助,尤其是在我们再次看到高投票率的一年里。”

Klain和Weil都建议打算亲自投票的选民,如果可以的话,尽早投票。

“如果人们出现了,等待时间太长了,以至于他们等不及了,你可以在另一天提前投票的时候回来,”克莱恩说。“选举日是一个完全不同的故事。你只能吃一口苹果。”

韦尔说,如果天气令人担忧,你也可以通过提前投票来避免在11月3日可能寒冷或下雨的时候在外面等候。

他说:“我们应该尽可能多地在投票站减轻选举日的压力。”。“如果我们每个人都能做出这样的决定,我想整个选举季都会变得更好。”

新的安全预防措施

在这个选举周期中,社交距离并不是唯一的安全措施。选民和投票工作人员之间的有机玻璃请愿、手消毒站和路边投票选项只是大流行期间选民投票时可能遇到的一些新情况。

两党政策中心与克利夫兰诊所合作提供投票安全指南今年。他们的建议包括“带上你自己的用品,比如洗手液,纸质选票的墨水笔,或者触摸屏机器的手写笔。”他们指出,在使用自己的用品之前,一定要与选举官员核实。

注意事项可能因州甚至县而异。布伦南中心一直与德克萨斯州的哈里斯县密切合作,在该县,本次选举周期的新措施包括触摸投票机时佩戴一次性塑料手指套。

“我们在全国范围内看到了这样的创新,”克莱恩说。"我确实认为县选举官员正在尽最大努力保护人民的安全."

在...之中推荐布伦南中心还建议选民避免将任何不必要的人,如儿童或其他无投票权的合格家庭成员带到投票地点。

“我们想限制投票人数,只限于需要投票的人,”克莱恩说。

制定一个计划——并坚持下去

如果你不确定你所在地区目前的投票规则,韦尔建议前往canivote.org,由美国国务卿协会管理,获取最新信息。

“我认为这是金本位制,”他说。"你希望选民转向他们的州选举官员."

PHOTO: George Hiu places mail-in ballots into a sorting machine at the Santa Clara County registrar of voters office on Oct. 13, 2020, in San Jose, Calif.

贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂影像公司

2020年10月13日,加利福尼亚州圣何塞市,乔治·肖将邮寄来的选票放入圣克拉拉县选民登记处的分拣机中。

有这么多变化,在某些情况下,法律挑战关于今年的投票,由于流感大流行,Klain建议弄清楚你什么时候去投票,然后与当地选举办公室核实投票地点和时间等信息。

“事情甚至在实时变化,”她说。“我们希望确保人们在决策和制定投票计划时获得最准确、最新的信息。”

无论你已经决定通过邮寄投票还是提前亲自投票,韦尔建议坚持下去,以避免增加选举官员的负担。例如,如果你要求缺席投票,但后来决定亲自投票,这需要更多的时间,并给报到系统带来更大的压力。

如果计划亲自投票,提前准备:带上口罩、洗手液、墨水笔或手写笔等用品以及任何相关的投票材料。

何时期待结果

在大选之夜,美国人习惯于通过新闻机构的预测相对快速地知道谁赢得了总统大选和其他竞选。但是随着缺席投票记录的出现,人们担心一些州,尤其是战场,可能会在选举日被计票淹没。

处理和计算缺席选票的规则因州而异,从允许在提交缺席选票时立即处理和计算缺席选票的规则,到直到选举日才开始计算缺席选票的规则。一些规则已经暂时改变,以适应大流行的预期增加,根据州立法机构全国会议。

对韦尔来说,鉴于缺席投票的增加,州选举法没有重大变化,允许选举官员更早地清点选票。

因此,对于一些专家来说,总统选举的结果可能还需要一段时间才能最终确定预测这个过程可能会持续至少几周。

“这将在选举之夜很好地为选民服务,所以这并不是一个大的冲击,”韦尔说,知道“可能不会有电话。”

如果选举不是在选举之夜决定的,有适当的指导方针。今年,如果各州想避免法律纠纷,它们必须在12月8日前提交最终选举结果。通常这个过程受晦涩的19世纪法律管辖,这不过是事后的想法,但今年计票的潜在复杂性以及法律挑战的前景又增加了一条新的皱纹。选举团将于12月14日开会,正式投票选举总统。

官员们敦促国会推迟这些截止日期,以避免潜在的危机。

Election 2020: Why voting in the coronavirus pandemic will be unlike any other year

This year's generalelectionis shaping up to be one for the history books. Between anticipated mail-in ballot records, early voting surges and a slew of novel coronavirus-related safety precautions, the global pandemic has shaped almost every facet of voting.

State and local election officials have been gearing up for this most unusual election cycle for months. With early voting already underway in all 50 states, here's what voters can expect leading up to Nov. 3, and beyond.

Mail-in voting surge

Workers drop voters ballots into a secure box at a ballot drop off location on Oct. 13, 2020, in Austin, Texas.

Often a service used by those living overseas, such as the military, but increasing in popularity, mail-in voting has taken on new significance in the pandemic, with more than 80 million requested so far in this general election cycle, double the previous presidential election and more than half the total vote cast in 2016.

As of Oct. 14, more than 1.5 million vote-by-mail ballots have been returned in California -- far surpassing the 150,000 at the same point in the season in 2016 -- according to the Secretary of State's office. That's in a state that already had a significant percentage of voters who chose to cast ballots by mail. This year, the state also decided to mail ballots to all active voters for the first time -- one of the major ways voting by mail has been made more accessible for this year's election.

Voting by mail is "going to be the real story of this cycle," Matthew Weil, director of the Elections Project at the Bipartisan Policy Center, told ABC News. "The jump from 2016 to 2020 is going to be huge," he said.

In the 2016 general election, 33,378,450 absentee ballots were returned, according to theU.S. Election Assistance Commission-- representing 23.7% of all ballots cast.

Based on evidence from primary elections since COVID-19 lockdowns began, the Bipartisan Policy Centerestimatedthat 50% to 70% of all ballots cast will be absentee this year. Weil now estimates that number to be on the lower end of that range, noting that "even 50% will be a huge increase over 2016."

For the general election, at least 30 states plus the District of Columbia havemade at least some changesthat will make it easier and more accessible for voters to cast their ballots from home. These changes include removing strict excuse requirements or allowing COVID-19 concerns to be a valid excuse to vote absentee, allowing ballot drop boxes, offering prepaid postage on election mail and proactively sending all active registered voters applications to request an absentee ballot -- with some, such as California, skipping that step and sending the actual ballots.

Unlike in elections past, there's also a partisan preference for mail-in ballots, Weil noted. Nearly 10 million more registered Democrats have requested absentee ballots compared to registered Republicans, according to theU.S. Elections Projectout of the University of Florida.

Adding to the complexities this year are President Donald Trump's repeated attempts to sow doubt on mail-in voting through false and conspiratorial claims about voter fraud. Legal expertstold ABC Newsthere hasn't been evidence of widespread or systematic voter fraud with mail voting.

Voters should be wary of making mistakes with their mail-in ballots. In the 2016 general election, around 1% -- 318,728 -- of absentee ballots were rejected, according to theElection Assistance Commission. The most common reasons for rejection were "missing the deadline, the signature on the ballot not matching the signature on the state’s records, and the ballot not having a signature," the commission said.

That rejection rate remained small overall in 2018, but growing, at 1.4%, according to an ABC News analysis.

"With a lot of voters voting in a different way than they ever had before," Weil said, "are we going to see a higher number of these absentee ballots rejected?"

Find out how to fill out your mail-in ballot correctly and avoid getting it rejectedhere.

Boxes for Vote-by-Mail ballots that have been rejected or accepted due to signature discrepancies are set up as the Miami-Dade County Canvassing Board convenes ahead of the November 3rd general election at the Miami-Dade County Elections Department in Doral, Fla., Oct. 15, 2020.

Long lines vs. long waits

With early voting already underway in every state, some counties have seen record-breaking numbers of in-person voters.

Amid the historic turnout, long lines have been reported at some polling locations -- though experts are quick to point out that long lines might not necessarily mean long wait times, and voters should not be deterred from voting as a result.

"Long lines are not necessarily a bad thing," Hannah Klain, a fellow with the nonpartisan law and policy institute Brennan Center for Justice, told ABC News. "It hopefully does mean that the polling site is enforcing social distancing, that people are keeping their distance when they are waiting in line to vote, that only so many people are being allowed into the voting space at a time in order to manage the crowds."

A snaking line could seem daunting, but "don't let a long line deter you," she said. Voters should be prepared to see them, Weil added.

People stand on line, spaced six apart due to COVID-19, in order to vote early at the Fairfax Government Center on September 18, 2020, in Fairfax, Va.

That doesn't mean that long wait times aren't a concern, Klain said, and election officials may need to sort those out throughout the early voting process. Because of the coronavirus, there may be limits on the number of voting machines at polling sites to avoid too many people being inside at one time. When early voting got underway in Georgia last week, some wait timesreached five hours. Counties that had long lines were working to add more voting equipment where possible, officials said last week.

Some counties in states including Texas, North Carolina and Nevada are implementing online wait-time technology so you can see the anticipated wait at your polling site.

"It is a more forward-looking use of technology in our election sphere," Klain said. "That's exciting to see, and helpful, especially in a year where, again, we're seeing high levels of turnout."

Both Klain and Weil recommend that voters who intend to vote in person should vote early if they can.

"If people show up and the wait time is so long that they can't wait, you can always come back on another day of early voting," Klain said. "Election Day is a totally different story. You only get one bite of that apple."

If weather is a concern, you also can avoid waiting outside on a potentially cold or rainy Nov. 3 by voting earlier, Weil said.

"We should try to take as much pressure off of Election Day at the polling places as possible," he said. "If individually we can all make that decision, I think the entire election season will go better."

New safety precautions

Socially distanced lines aren't the only safety measures in play this election cycle. Plexiglass petitions between voters and poll workers, hand sanitizing stations and curbside voting options are just some of the new sights voters may encounter while voting during a pandemic.

The Bipartisan Policy Center partnered with the Cleveland Clinic to providevoting safety guidancethis year. Their recommendations include "bringing your own supplies, such as hand sanitizer, an ink pen for paper ballots, or a stylus for touchscreen machines." Just make sure to verify with an election official before using your own supplies, they note.

Precautions may vary by state and even county. The Brennan Center has been working closely with Harris County in Texas, where new measures this election cycle include disposable plastic finger covers to wear while touching voting machines.

"We're seeing innovations like that across the country," Klain said. "I do think county election officials are doing their best to keep people safe."

Amongrecommendationsit issued with Infectious Diseases Society of America, the Brennan Center also advises that voters avoid bringing any unnecessary people, such as children or other non-voting eligible family members, to the voting location.

"We want to limit the number of people who are at the polls to just those who need to cast a ballot," Klain said.

Make a plan -- and stick to it

If you're unsure about the current voting rules in your area, Weil recommends heading tocanivote.org, run by the National Association of Secretaries of State, for the latest information.

"I think that is the gold standard," he said. "You want voters to be turning to their state election officials."

George Hiu places mail-in ballots into a sorting machine at the Santa Clara County registrar of voters office on Oct. 13, 2020, in San Jose, Calif.

With so many changes and, in some cases,legal challengesregarding voting this year due to the pandemic, Klain recommends figuring out when you're going to vote, then double checking information such as polling locations and hours with local election offices.

"Things are even changing in real-time," she said. "We want to make sure that people have the most accurate and up-to-date information when they're making decisions and making a voting plan."

Whether you've decided to already vote by mail-in ballot or early in-person, Weil recommends sticking to it to avoid increasing the burden of election officials. For instance, if you've requested an absentee ballot but then decide to vote in person, that takes more time and puts more pressure on the check-in system.

If planning to vote in person, prep ahead: Pack supplies such as a mask, hand sanitizer, ink pen or a stylus and any relevant voting materials.

When to expect results

On a general election night, Americans are accustomed to knowing who's won the presidency and other races relatively quickly through projections made by news organizations. But with record absentee ballots anticipated, there is a concern that some states, especially battlegrounds, could be overwhelmed with counting ballots on Election Day.

Rules for processing and counting absentee ballots vary from state to state, ranging from some that allow immediate processing and counting of absentee ballots when they are submitted, to those that do not start counting them until Election Day. Some rules have changed temporarily to accommodate the increase anticipated for the pandemic, according to theNational Conference of State Legislatures.

For Weil, there haven't been significant changes to state election laws to allow election officials to count those ballots earlier, given increases in absentee voting.

As a result, it could be a while before the results of the presidential election are final, with some expertspredictingthe process could last for at least a couple of weeks.

"It's going to serve voters well on election night, so it's not a big shock," Weil said, to know that "there might not be a call."

There are guidelines in place in the event the election is not decided on Election Night. This year, states have until Dec. 8 to file final election results if they want to insulate themselves from legal disputes. Usuallythis process, governed by obscure 19th-century law, is not much more than an afterthought, but the potential complexities of counting the vote this year as well as the prospect of legal challenges have added a new wrinkle. The Electoral College will then meet on Dec. 14 to formally cast their votes for the president.

Officials have urged Congress to move these deadlines back to avoid a potential crisis.

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