美国现在距离2020年投票期结束还有18天。我这样说是因为11月3日真的不是选举日，因为大多数美国人在那之前都会投票。事实上，到周五晚上，全国将有大约2000万公民投票。
为什么这很重要?嗯，当我们看昨晚对“决斗”市政厅的任何分析时，我们必须从我们在哪里和正在发生什么的角度来理解它们。
我一直说总统竞选就像马拉松。这是一个漫长而艰苦的过程，没有一个时刻是决定性的。两周多一点前，唐纳德·特朗普总统以平均7个百分点的优势落后于乔·拜登进入第一场辩论。特朗普的主要目标是超越拜登，拉近距离。走进周四晚上的市政厅，特朗普不仅没有缩小这场马拉松的差距，他现在平均落后拜登10%以上，根据五点三十八分。这场竞选的宏观阻力对特朗普来说仍然很难克服:作为一名现任总统，大多数美国人不赞成他作为总统的表现，认为国家正朝着错误的方向前进。
美国广播公司新闻
2020年10月15日，在费城的美国广播公司新闻市政厅，美国广播公司新闻首席主播乔治·斯特凡诺普洛斯与前副总统乔·拜登交谈。
在拜登在全国和选举团所有关键目标州拥有超过50%选票的竞选中，每个候选人进入这两个市政厅的目标都非常不同。特朗普的目标是让极少数尚未决定的选民转向他(即使这样做也是不够的，因为他可能会得到每一个尚未决定的选民，但仍然会输)。但更重要的是，他需要让目前投票给拜登的选民要么犹豫不决，要么支持自己。
拜登的主要目标是让已经支持他的选民放心，他们的决定是正确的，并让他们对自己已经做出的选择感到舒适和自信。拜登在这次总统竞选中可能会失去一点优势，但仍会获胜。
这两个市政厅的对比再明显不过了。不仅在政策清晰度和国家愿景上存在巨大差异，而且两者的基调和风格也截然相反。正如辩论或市政厅中经常出现的情况一样，最关键的因素是候选人的语气和风格。
拜登给人的印象是冷静、清晰、有时谦逊和富有同情心——以一种真实的方式与参与者交流。特朗普表现得混乱、困惑，与美国的大部分地区有点脱节。
而特朗普的表现没什么可切入的将近42%的美国人支持他他没有采取任何行动来打动支持拜登的犹豫不决的人或公民。另一方面，拜登让人放心，并可能巩固了他在专栏中已经拥有的支持者。这是拜登的胜利，也是特朗普的损失。
埃文·武奇/美联社
2020年10月15日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在迈阿密佩雷斯艺术博物馆与主持人萨凡纳·古斯瑞举行的全国广播公司新闻市政厅会议上发表讲话。
很可能在周四晚上之后，这场竞选不会有什么变化，拜登将保持他的稳固领先地位。随着11月3日大选的临近，我预计这场竞选将像大多数政治竞选一样自然地结束一点。但它本身还不足以给特朗普一个现实的机会。
那么特朗普在这场马拉松比赛中是如何拉近距离的呢?首先，他必须希望拜登在前进的道路上有一些重大失误，包括在预计下周举行的最后一场辩论中。第二，总统必须改变选民的构成，重新定义我们认为可能的样子。与拜登相比，特朗普的支持率肯定有很大的提高。这是一项艰巨的任务，因为已有数百万人投票。第三，特朗普必须希望出现一个相当有影响力的意外外部事件，改变对他或拜登的看法。这是一个他和拜登都无法控制的事件。
最后，我发现福克斯新闻上的一些人把乔·拜登和罗杰斯先生在辩论中的表现进行了比较，这些人认为这是负面的，这令人震惊。罗杰斯先生是美国生活中受人喜爱的冷静和富有同情心的人物，他出生在宾夕法尼亚州，并在那里长大，拜登的市政厅就是在那里举行的。在这个混乱、分裂的美国，将某人与宾夕法尼亚州的罗杰斯先生相提并论可能是你能给予的最好的赞美之一。我认为，如果你问大多数美国人，他们现在更愿意谁当总统，他们会说善良的罗杰斯先生，而不是《回到未来》中的恶霸比夫·坦南。
是的，这场马拉松的终点仍在几英里之外，但时钟是特朗普最大的敌人，因为他拼命想赶上。
Dueling town halls show Trump struggling to catch up in marathon race
America is now 18 days from the end of this 2020 voting period. I say it this way because Nov. 3 really isn’t Election Day since the majority of Americans will have voted before then. In fact, by Friday evening roughly 20 million citizens will have voted across this country.
Why does this matter? Well, when we look at any analysis of the "dueling" town halls last night we must understand them in the context of where we are and what is going on.
I have always said presidential campaigns are like marathons. It is a long and grueling process and no one moment is determinative. A little over two weeks ago, President Donald Trump went into the first debate behind Joe Biden by an average of seven points. Trump’s primary goal was to move up on Biden and close the distance. Going into Thursday night’s town halls, not only did Trump not close the gap in this marathon, he is now on average more than 10% behind Biden,according to FiveThirtyEight. And the macro headwinds of this race are still difficult for Trump: As an incumbent, a majority of Americans disapprove of his performance as president and believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.
ABC News' Chief Anchor George Stephanopoulos speaks to former Vice President Joe Biden during an ABC News Town Hall in Philadelphia, Oct. 15, 2020.
The goals of each candidate going into these two town halls was very different in a race where Biden has over 50% of the vote nationally and in all the key target states in the Electoral College. Trump’s goal was to move the tiny number of undecideds toward him (even doing this isn’t enough since he could get every undecided voter and still lose). But more importantly, he needed to move voters who currently are voting for Biden toward either being undecided or toward himself.
Biden’s main goal was to reassure voters who are already for him that their decision was correct and to make them comfortable and confident in a choice they have already made. Biden could lose a little ground in this presidential race and still win.
The contrast in these two town halls couldn’t have been more dramatic. Not only were there huge differences on clarity of policy and a vision for the country, but the tone and style of each were polar opposite. And as is often the case in debates or town halls, the most crucial factor is the tone and style of a candidate.
Biden came across as calm, clear, at times humble and compassionate -- connecting with participants in a real way. Trump presented himself as chaotic, confusing and a good bit disconnected from a large swath of America.
While Trump’s performance did little to cut intothe nearly 42% of America that supports him, he did nothing to move undecideds or citizens who support Biden. Biden, on the other hand, was reassuring and likely solidified the supporters he already has in his column. And that is a win for Biden and a loss for Trump.
President Donald Trump speaks during an NBC News Town Hall with moderator Savannah Guthrie, at Perez Art Museum, Oct. 15, 2020, in Miami.
It is likely that after Thursday night little will change in this race, with Biden maintaining his solid lead. I expect this race to naturally close a little as most political races do as we approach the end of the election on Nov. 3. But it will not be close enough on its own to give Trump a realistic chance.
So how does Trump close the distance in this marathon race? First, he has to hope Biden has a few major stumbles on the short road ahead including at the last debate expected to be held next week. Second, the president must alter the makeup of the electorate in a way that redefines what we think it is likely to look like. Trump must have a major over performance of the base of his support in comparison with Biden’s. This is a difficult task since millions have already voted. And third, Trump must hope for a rather impactful unexpected external event that alters perceptions of him or Biden. An event both he and Biden have no control over.
And finally, I found it striking that some folks on Fox News compared Joe Biden to Mr. Rogers in his debate performance and those folks thought this was a negative. Mr. Rogers, a beloved calming and compassionate figure in American life, was born and grew up in Pennsylvania, which is where Biden’s town hall was conducted. Comparing someone to Mr. Rogers in Pennsylvania is probably one of the best compliments you can give at this time in a disruptive, divisive America. I think if you asked most Americans who they would rather have as president right now, they would say the kind Mr. Rogers instead of the bully Biff Tannen from "Back to the Future."
Yes, the finish in this marathon is still a few miles ahead, but the clock is the greatest enemy for Trump as he tries desperately to catch up.
