费城及其郊区压倒性的支持提升了前副总统乔·拜登在关键的宾夕法尼亚州明显领先，在受过大学教育的白人和妇女的支持下，特别是白人、温和派和郊区妇女，这是他在美国广播公司新闻/华盛顿邮报新的民意调查中的优势。
总统唐纳德·特朗普就他而言，正在遭受2016年支持者的流失;8%的人现在支持拜登。虽然这只是选民的一小部分，但这是特朗普在四年前赢得近620万张选票中的44292张的一个潜在重要因素。
可能的选民以54%对45%的比例支持拜登，几乎与支持特朗普的人数持平美国广播公司/邮报全国投票周日上映。这一结果包括拜登在人口稠密的费城郊区以超过2比1的优势领先，那里有近四分之一的潜在选民，宾夕法尼亚东北部和西部的结果接近，只有该州的保守中心明显被特朗普占据。
周二晚上，克利夫兰举行了第一场总统辩论，投票标志着特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州面临的挑战，这也反映在关键的中西部地区，甚至全国范围内。宾夕法尼亚州60%的登记选民说经济受到伤害，62%的人担心赶不上冠状病毒54%的人支持抗议警察对待黑人的方式。每个人都帮助拜登。
然而，特朗普的主要任务是克服大多数人对他第一任期表现的不赞同。就像全国的情况一样，他的总体工作支持率在宾夕法尼亚州很低——43%对55%，批准-不批准。他对大流行的处理有42%到57%。
2016年的转变凸显了特朗普的困难。在这项调查中，报告四年前投票的可能选民表示，他们以50%对47%的支持率支持特朗普，接近48%对47%的实际结果。今天，克林顿的选民以98%对1%支持拜登，但特朗普失势了，他2016年的支持者以92%对8%支持拜登。
像所有选举前的民意调查一样，这项调查测量了估计可能的选民的当前偏好;一个或两个都可以改变。例如，周日的《纽约时报》是否特朗普纳税申报报告-采访结束后的第二天-有什么影响吗?
特朗普在这项由美国广播公司为其制作的民意调查中确实有口实兰格研究协会:他的支持者热情高涨，53%的人赞成处理经济问题，他的基础坚实，计划在选举日亲自投票的选民中明显领先，这是20个百分点的优势。
也就是说，拜登暗淡的热情可能会被对特朗普的反感所抵消。宾夕法尼亚州强烈反对总统工作表现的登记选民比强烈支持者多17个百分点，分别为49%和32%。全国都差不多。
此外，拜登可能会从美国最高法院大法官鲁斯·巴德·金斯伯格即将被取代一事中获得一些能量。与特朗普及其政党目前的路线相反，该州53%的登记选民表示，该席位应由选举获胜者和下一届参议院填补，而不是由特朗普和现任参议院填补。而且，61%的拜登支持者表示，这个问题让他们觉得拜登获胜更重要;41%的特朗普支持者对他们的候选人说了同样的话。全国的结果也大致相似。
投票
宾夕法尼亚州的一个不同之处是，很大一部分登记选民计划在选举日亲自投票——65%(可能的选民中有67%)，而全国登记选民中有45%。在本月的其他美国广播公司/邮报民意调查中，这一比例也较低，尽管范围很大——明尼苏达州为59%，威斯康星州为51%，佛罗里达州为38%，亚利桑那州为33%。
这很重要:预计选举日选民以60%对39%的比例支持特朗普，而不是拜登。相比之下，那些计划提前投票的人明显以87%对13%支持拜登。确保提前投票和缺席投票得到投票和统计是拜登竞选团队的一个核心问题。
问题
与一些单一问题占主导地位的选举不同，一系列的担忧在起作用。25%的宾夕法尼亚州登记选民认为经济是首要问题;对18%的人来说，这是流行病。12%至14%的人选择犯罪和安全、种族平等待遇或医疗保健。9%的人说这是高等法院的下一次任命。
特朗普和拜登在处理其中两个问题上的信任度大致相当，经济-49%对48%，特朗普-拜登-犯罪和安全-50%对47%，拜登-特朗普。这是拜登在下一次最高法院任命上的+9分，在处理大流行上的+14分，在医疗保健上的+17分和在处理种族群体平等待遇上的+20分信任。
即使在经济问题上进行了大致相同的对决，那些将经济作为最重要问题的选民仍以84%对16%的票数支持特朗普;这、犯罪和安全是他最关心的问题。那些关注这场流行病的人支持拜登，93%对5%，他在那些引用医疗保健和平等待遇的人中间遥遥领先。
如上所述，对经济的看法、流行病和对警察不当行为的抗议都很重要——在一个控制党派、意识形态、种族/族裔和其他人口变量的统计模型中，对每一个问题的态度都独立地预测候选人的选择。
这也反映在直接的投票偏好结果中:拜登在对经济做出负面评价的人中领先69个百分点，在支持抗议的人中领先73个百分点，在担心感染冠状病毒的人群中领先51个百分点。特朗普在他们的对手中遥遥领先。
组
从人口统计来看，女性、受过大学教育的温和选民是拜登支持的关键因素。
民主党在女性中以61%对38%的比例领先，而男性的差距要小得多，特朗普和拜登的差距为53%对46%，性别差距为30个百分点。仅在白人中，男性以60%对39%的比例支持特朗普，而白人女性以56%对43%支持拜登。
郊区的差距较小，但仍然值得注意，因为郊区居民占该州10个可能选民中的6个。这场比赛在郊区男性中基本上是一场死气沉沉的比赛，特朗普-拜登以51票对49票，而在郊区女性中，拜登-特朗普以59票对41票。这在郊区产生了54%至45%的总体结果，与全州范围内的种族完全匹配。
从地区来看，拜登在费城郊区领先69%至31%，而四年前克林顿在那里领先55%至42%。拜登的结果也比克林顿在宾夕法尼亚州西部的结果有所改善，而该州其他地区的竞选与四年前更相似。
在这张2020年6月2日的档案照片中，人们戴着口罩等待费城初选投票，以防止新冠肺炎的传播。
特朗普在保守派中支持率为87%，拜登在自由派中支持率为92%。温和派对拜登的支持率相差悬殊，为63%至35%，性别差距也很大。拜登在温和派男性中的+7分上升到温和派女性的+47分，相差40分。
其他部门也很宽泛。在没有高中以上学历的可能选民中，是川普+18分;在拥有大学学位的人中，拜登+29。特朗普-拜登在白人中的支持率约为51%至48%，而拜登在种族和少数民族中的领先优势很大。
受过大学教育的白人从2016年开始的转变尤其能说明问题。四年前在宾夕法尼亚州进行的美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)出口民调显示，这一群体的支持率完全持平，为48%对48%。在今天可能的选民中，受过大学教育的白人以61%对38%支持拜登。这包括63%至35%的受过大学教育的白人女性。但在这里，最大的变化发生在受过大学教育的白人男性中。2016年，他们以56%对39%支持特朗普。如今，情况几乎完全相反，57%对42%的人支持拜登。
方法学
这项美国广播公司新闻/华盛顿邮报的民意调查是在2020年9月21日至26日通过座机和手机采访进行的，随机抽样调查了702名宾夕法尼亚州注册选民和567名可能的选民。结果的边距为抽样误差在登记选民中为4.5个百分点，在可能的选民中为5.0个百分点。党派分歧——民主党-共和党-无党派——在登记选民中占38-32-23%，在可能的选民中占39-34-21%。
这项调查是由兰格研究协会，由马里兰州罗克维尔的Abt协会进行采样和数据收集。查看调查方法的详细信息这里
In Pennsylvania, advantage Biden with a big boost from women: POLL
Overwhelming support in Philadelphia and its suburbs lift former Vice PresidentJoe Bidento a clear lead in crucial Pennsylvania, with backing from college-educated white people and women -- notably white, moderate and suburban women -- central to his advantage in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll.
PresidentDonald Trump, for his part, is suffering attrition among his 2016 supporters; 8% of them now back Biden instead. While a small slice of the electorate, it’s a potentially important factor in a state Trump won by 44,292 votes out of nearly 6.2 million cast four years ago.
Likely voters support Biden over Trump by 54 to 45%, almost exactly matching anational ABC/Post pollreleased Sunday. The result includes more than a 2 to 1 Biden lead in the populous Philadelphia suburbs, home to nearly a quarter of likely voters, and close results in northeastern and western Pennsylvania, leaving only the conservative center of the state clearly to Trump.
With the first presidential debate Tuesday night in Cleveland, the poll marks Trump’s challenges in Pennsylvania, also reflected in the crucial Midwest and indeed nationally. Sixty percent of registered voters in Pennsylvania say the economy is hurting, 62% are worried about catching thecoronavirusand 54% support protests against police treatment of Black people. Each aids Biden.
Trump’s chief task, though, is to overcome majority disapproval of his first-term performance. As is the case nationally, his overall job approval rating is well under water in Pennsylvania -- 43 to 55%, approve-disapprove. And it’s 42 to 57% for his handling of the pandemic.
A shift from 2016 underscores Trump’s difficulty. Likely voters in this survey who report having voted four years ago say they backed Trump over Hillary Clinton by 50 to 47% -- close to the actual result, 48 to 47%. Today, Clinton voters favor Biden by 98 to 1%, but Trump slips, his 2016 supporters divide by 92 to 8%.
Like all pre-election polls, this survey measures current preferences among estimated likely voters; either or both can change. It’s an open question, for instance, whether Sunday’s New York Timesreport on Trump’s tax returns-- a day after interviews were completed -- has any impact.
Trump does have ammunition in this poll, produced for ABC byLanger Research Associates: A 20-point advantage in strong enthusiasm among his supporters, 53% approval for handling the economy, solid backing in his base and a clear lead among voters who plan to cast their ballot in person on Election Day.
That said, Biden’s lackluster enthusiasm may be counterbalanced by antipathy toward Trump. Pennsylvania registered voters who strongly disapprove of the president’s job performance outnumber strong approvers by 17 percentage points, 49 to 32%. It’s similar nationally.
Biden, further, may gain some energy from the pending replacement of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the U.S. Supreme Court. Contrary to Trump and his party’s current course, 53% of registered voters in the state say the seat should be filled by the election winner and the next Senate, not by Trump and the current Senate. Moreover, 61% of Biden’s supporters say this issue makes it more important to them that Biden wins; fewer Trump supporters, 41%, say the same about their candidate. National results, again, are roughly similar.
Voting
One difference in Pennsylvania is the large share of registered voters planning to cast ballots in person on Election Day -- 65% (and 67% among likely voters), compared with 45% of registered voters nationally. It’s also been lower, though in a wide range, in other ABC/Post polls this month -- 59% in Minnesota and 51% in Wisconsin, dropping to 38% in Florida and 33% in Arizona.
It can matter: Intended Election Day voters favor Trump over Biden by 60 to 39%. Those who plan to vote early, by contrast, favor Biden by a remarkable 87 to 13%. Ensuring that those early and absentee votes are cast and counted is a central concern for the Biden campaign.
Issues
Unlike some elections in which a single issue dominates, a mix of concerns is at play. Twenty-five percent of Pennsylvania registered voters cite the economy as the top issue; for 18%, it’s the pandemic. Twelve to 14% pick either crime and safety, equal treatment of racial groups or health care. Nine percent say it’s the next appointment to the high court.
Trump and Biden run approximately evenly in trust to handle two of these, the economy -- 49 to 48%, Trump-Biden -- and crime and safety -- 50 to 47%, Biden-Trump. It’s Biden +9 points on the next Supreme Court appointment, +14 points on handling the pandemic, +17 points on health care and +20 points in trust to handle equal treatment of racial groups.
Even with that roughly even head-to-head match on the economy, likely voters who cite the economy as the most important issue in their vote back Trump by 84 to 16%; this and crime and safety are his best issues. Those who focus on the pandemic back Biden, 93 to 5%, and he leads by a wide margin among those who cite health care and equal treatment as well.
As mentioned, views on the economy, the pandemic and protests against police misconduct all are important -- attitudes on each of these independently predict candidate choice in a statistical model controlling for partisanship, ideology, race/ethnicity and other demographic variables.
That’s also reflected in direct vote-preference results: Biden leads by 69 points among those who rate the economy negatively, 73 points among those who support the protests and 51 points among those worried about catching the coronavirus -- majority groups in each case. Trump leads by wide margins among their opposites.
Groups
Demographically, women, college-educated and moderate voters are key elements of Biden’s support.
The Democrat leads among women by 61 to 38%, while men divide far more closely, 53 to 46% Trump-Biden, a wide 30-point gender gap. Among white people only, men favor Trump by a wide 60 to 39%, while white women support Biden by 56 to 43%.
The gap is narrower in the suburbs, but notable nonetheless, given that suburban residents account for six in 10 likely voters in the state. The race is essentially a dead heat among suburban men -- 51 to 49%, Trump-Biden -- while it’s 59 to 41%, Biden-Trump, among suburban woman. That produces an overall result in the suburbs of 54 to 45%, exactly matching the race statewide.
Regionally, Biden’s ahead by 69 to 31% in the Philadelphia suburbs, compared with Clinton’s 55 to 42% there four years ago. Biden’s also improved on Clinton’s result in western Pennsylvania, while the race in the state’s other regions are more similar to what it was four years ago.
In this June 2, 2020, file photo, people wearing masks to prevent the spread of COVID-19 wait to vote in the primary election in Philadelphia.
Trump cruises among conservatives, with 87% support, as does Biden among liberals, 92%. Moderates divide by a wide margin in Biden’s favor, 63 to 35%, with another broad gender gap. Biden’s +7 points among moderate men balloons to +47 among moderate women, a 40-point gap.
Other divisions also are broad. Among likely voters who haven’t gone beyond high school, it’s Trump +18 points; among those with college degrees, Biden +29. And it’s about even, 51 to 48%, Trump-Biden, among white people, while Biden leads by a wide margin among racial and ethnic minorities.
The shift from 2016 among college-educated white people is especially telling. In the ABC News exit poll in Pennsylvania four years ago, this group divided exactly evenly, 48 to 48%. Among likely voters today, college-educated white people support Biden by 61 to 38%. That includes a 63 to 35% race among college-educated white women. But here, the big shift is among college-educated white men. They backed Trump by 56 to 39% in 2016. Today that’s almost exactly reversed, 57 to 42% in Biden’s favor.
Methodology
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone interviews Sept. 21-26, 2020 among a random sample of 702 Pennsylvania registered voters and 567 likely voters. Results have margins ofsampling errorof 4.5 points among registered voters and 5.0 points among likely voters. Partisan divisions -- Democrats-Republicans-independents -- are 38-32-23% among registered voters and 39-34-21% among likely voters.
The survey was produced for ABC News byLanger Research Associates, with sampling and data collection by Abt Associates of Rockville, Maryland. See details on the survey’s methodologyhere.
