凤凰城——如果亚利桑那州民主党人马克·凯利赢得美国参议院的一个席位，他可能最早于11月30日就职，在关键时刻缩小共和党在参议院的多数席位，并使总统确认的道路复杂化唐纳德·特朗普美国最高法院提名人。
凯利在民调中一直领先于共和党参议员玛莎·麦克萨利，后者被任命为众议院议员约翰·麦凯恩，死于2018年。
因为比赛很特别选举为了结束麦凯恩的任期，一旦结果得到官方认证，获胜者就可以宣誓就职。11月的其他获奖者选举要到一月份才能就职。
特朗普承诺提名一名法官来接替周五去世的自由派偶像鲁斯·巴德·金斯伯格，参议院多数党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔(Mitch McConnell)誓言特朗普的提名人“将在美国参议院获得投票”。
如果凯利获胜，他正式就职的时间可能是决定谁取代金斯伯格的关键。这可能会取消共和党对特朗普提名人的投票——共和党目前在100名成员的众议院中拥有53个席位——或者要求麦康奈尔加快提名过程。
由于麦克萨利在参议院，四个共和党倒戈可能会击败提名，而副总统迈克·彭斯可能会打破平局。
麦克萨利很快放下了一个标记，在金斯伯格死亡宣布后的几个小时内，他在推特上宣布，“美国参议院应该投票选举特朗普总统的下一任美国最高法院提名人。”
她没有详细说明确认投票应该在选举之前还是之后进行。但她在周六的一场筹款活动中强调了自己竞选的新赌注。
“如果马克·凯利脱颖而出，他可能会阻止特朗普总统的最高法院提名被确认，”她写道。
2018年，民主党人通过吸引共和党人和对特朗普不满的独立选民，在亚利桑那州这个长期由共和党主导的州取得了成功。最高法院的空缺可能会动摇这场竞选，并通过让这些选民留在她的阵营来推动麦克萨利落后的竞选。
凯利周六晚些时候表示，“11月当选总统和参议院的人应该填补这个空缺。”
凯利在一份声明中说:“当涉及到终身任命最高法院时，华盛顿不应该出于政治目的仓促行事。”。
亚利桑那州法律要求选举结果在选举后的第四个星期一正式认证，今年的选举日期是11月30日。如果该州没有收到15个县中任何一个县的选举结果，认证可能会推迟三天。
精通选举法的民主党律师玛丽·奥格雷迪(Mary O'Grady)表示，截止日期已经确定，几乎没有拖延的余地。
“我看不出这里有什么模糊之处，”奥格雷迪说，他曾是亚利桑那州在两位民主党总检察长领导下的副检察长。
她说，亚利桑那州法律只允许在非常有限的情况下进行重新计票和选举质疑。
“通常，参议院秘书办公室会尽力容纳新参议员，”前参议院历史学家唐·里奇告诉《亚利桑那共和报》，该报在金斯伯格去世前一天早些时候首次报道了凯利就职的前景。“老参议员不在他们办公室那里。我的意思是，他们实际上在门上装了一把锁，这样他们的员工就不能进去了。”
Arizona Senate race could play crucial role in confirmation
PHOENIX -- If Arizona Democrat Mark Kelly wins a seat in the U.S. Senate, he could take office as early as Nov. 30, shrinking the GOP's Senate majority at a crucial moment and complicating the path to confirmation for President Donald Trump's Supreme Court nominee.
Kelly has maintained a consistent polling lead over Republican Sen. Martha McSally, who was appointed to the seat held by John McCain, who died in 2018.
Because the contest is a special election to finish McCain's term, the winner could be sworn in as soon as the results are officially certified. Other winners in the November election won't take office until January.
Trump has pledged to nominate a replacement for Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a liberal icon who died Friday, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell vowed that Trump’s nominee “will receive a vote on the floor of the United States Senate.”
If Kelly wins, the timing when he formally takes office could be crucial in determining who replaces Ginsburg. It could eliminate a Republican vote in favor of Trump's nominee — the GOP currently has 53 seats in the 100-member chamber — or require McConnell to speed up the nomination process.
With McSally in the Senate, four GOP defections could defeat a nomination, while a tie vote could be broken by Vice President Mike Pence.
McSally quickly laid down a marker, declaring on Twitter within hours of the announcement of Ginsberg's death that “this U.S. Senate should vote on President Trump’s next nominee for the U.S. Supreme Court.”
She has not elaborated on whether the confirmation vote should come before or after the election. But she highlighted the renewed stakes of her race in a fundraising pitch on Saturday.
“If Mark Kelly comes out on top, HE could block President Trump’s Supreme Court Nominee from being confirmed,” she wrote.
Democrats in 2018 found success in Arizona, a state long dominated by the GOP, by appealing to Republicans and independent voters disaffected with Trump. The Supreme Court vacancy could shake up the race and boost McSally's lagging campaign by keeping those voters in her camp.
Kelly said late Saturday that “the people elected to the presidency and Senate in November should fill this vacancy.”
“When it comes to making a lifetime appointment to the Supreme Court, Washington shouldn’t rush that process for political purposes,” Kelly said in a statement.
Arizona law requires election results to be officially certified on the fourth Monday after the election, which falls this year on Nov. 30. The certification could be delayed up to three days if the state has not received election results from any of the 15 counties.
Mary O'Grady, a Democratic lawyer with expertise in election law, said the deadlines are firm and there's little room for delay.
“I don’t see ambiguity here,” said O’Grady, who was Arizona’s solicitor general under two Democratic attorneys general.
Arizona law allows recounts and election challenges only under very limited circumstances, she said.
“Usually, the Secretary of the Senate’s office goes out of its way to accommodate the new senators coming in,” former Senate Historian Don Ritchie told The Arizona Republic, which first reported on the prospect for Kelly taking office early a day before Ginsburg’s death. “The old senator is out of their office there. I mean, they actually literally put a lock on the door so their staff can’t go in.”
