即使是本周最令人震惊的揭露也不能改变任何人的想法——即使是总统唐纳德·特朗普奥巴马自己的话不会改变人们对这位总统及其领导的看法。
目前还不知道。尽管如此，对特朗普和他的第二个任期的前景来说，这将是一个问题。
尽管竞选内外都有一些疯狂的消息，但公众投票显示了一种顽固的稳定性。前副总统乔·拜登在全国范围内比特朗普高出7.5个百分点最新的538次民意调查平均值;拜登在6月11日上升了7.6个百分点。
2020年9月10日，在马里兰州安德鲁斯空军基地，唐纳德·特朗普总统步行登上空军一号，前往密歇根州弗里兰参加竞选集会。
这关键战场上的竞争更加激烈，虽然不一定是全部。自大会以来，特朗普在民调中可能的选民中的得票率包括威斯康辛州的43票和42票(马克特·劳和福克斯)，宾夕法尼亚州的两个44票(昆尼皮亚克和NBC/Marist)，加上北卡罗来纳州的46票和亚利桑那州的40票(福克斯的民调都是如此)。
是的，他在佛罗里达州和得克萨斯州看起来更强大——但这些州会比他们在选举中领先更快地增加压倒性优势。特朗普需要增加他的支持，而不是踩水投票，不管你在民意调查中投入多少股票，趋势线就是它们。
对于这两种票的成员来说，这场运动正步入一个节奏之中——尽管就人群和时间而言，事件看起来几乎没有什么不同新冠肺炎预防措施。
周五，特朗普和拜登将在宾夕法尼亚州尚克斯维尔举行的9月11日纪念活动中几乎相遇。然而，这并不意味着两位候选人都在改变竞选方向。
各级专家似乎都同意，要完成一次准确的人口普查，需要更多的时间，而不是更少。
今年早些时候，特朗普政府宣布了以下计划早点结束计数-在月底-尽管大流行已经给与每个居民的联系造成了严重的障碍。
倡导者周四在国会山告诉立法者，任何缩短这一过程的尝试都可能对依赖联邦资金的地方政府产生毁灭性影响。
2020年3月19日，在加利福尼亚州圣安塞尔莫，美国人口普查标志出现在收到的人口普查材料上，并附有在线填写人口普查信息的邀请。
“可以毫不夸张地说，精确的人口普查可以部落社区的生死问题因为受人口普查影响的项目影响了医疗保健、公共安全、我们的青年和老年人项目、住房、针对妇女的暴力赠款以及其他支持我们部落社区的项目，”吉拉河社区的州长斯蒂芬·罗伊·刘易斯周四告诉国会领导人。
就在上周，加州的一名联邦法官暂时阻止了特朗普政府缩短计数周期。
此外，纽约的联邦法官周四裁定，监管美国人口普查局的商务部长不能将无证移民排除在用于确定国会席位的总人口之外，这对特朗普政府是一个打击。
很明显，每天都有重要的事情要计算，虽然还有时间参加2020年的全国人口普查，但现在的问题是——多少?
小费肯德尔·胡炬雄
今年的选举不同于以往任何一年，这是选举结果的第一个迹象不确定的11月52天后出现。
密歇根州是民主党“蓝墙”的一个重要战场，在2016年落入特朗普手中之前，它一直是民主党“蓝墙”的一部分，超过210万选民要求为大选进行缺席投票——这是一个令人瞠目结舌的创纪录的总数，还有8周时间。
在这张由威斯康辛观察提供的照片中，选举工作人员杰夫和洛里·卢茨卡(右)于2020年8月11日在密尔沃基的中央点票设施处理缺席选票。
今年到目前为止的请求数量是几乎是2016年总数的两倍据底特律自由报(Detroit Free Press)报道，在选举日之前，密歇根州只有120多万选民要求缺席投票，而2016年密歇根州的总投票率约为490万。这也超过了上个月该州初选所要求的缺席选票总数200万张，最终导致150万张缺席选票被退回。
尽管如此，有这么多这场选举可能出乎意料威斯康星州是另一个“蓝墙”州，该州有100万选民要求缺席投票，但该州似乎没有从混乱的4月初选中吸取太多教训。倾向保守的州最高法院暂时停止了缺席选票的邮寄，因为它正在权衡是否将绿党候选人纳入选票，这再次成为选举过程中的一个干扰因素，并有可能导致如果投票延期，选民会感到困惑。
The Note: Wild events play out across relative stability of race
It just might be that no minds are changed by even the most shocking revelations of the week -- that even PresidentDonald Trump's own words won't move perceptions of this president and his leadership.
That isn't known at this moment. Even that, though, would be a problem for Trump and his prospects for a second term.
For all the wild news in the race and beyond, public polling suggests a stubborn stability. Former Vice President Joe Biden is up 7.5 points nationally over Trump inthe latest FiveThirtyEight polling average; Biden was up by 7.6 points on June 11.
President Donald Trump walks to board Air Force One for a trip to a campaign rally in Freeland, Mich., Sept. 10, 2020, at Andrews Air Force Base, Md.
Therace is closer in key battlegrounds, though not necessarily in all of them. Trump's vote share among likely voters in polls out since the conventions include a 43 and a 42 in Wisconsin (Marquette Law and Fox), two 44s in Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac and NBC/Marist), plus a 46 in North Carolina and a 40 in Arizona (both Fox polls).
Yes, he looks stronger in Florida and Texas -- but those are states that would add to a landslide sooner than they would tip an election. Trump needs to be growing his support instead oftreading polling water, and trend lines are what they are regardless of how much stock you put in polls.
The campaign is falling into a rhythm for members of both tickets -- though events could hardly look more different in terms of crowds andCOVID-19 precautions.
On Friday, Trump and Biden will come close to crossing paths in commemorating Sept. 11 in Shanksville, Pennsylvania. That doesn't mean, though, that either candidate is changing the direction of the race.
The RUNDOWN withMaryAlice Parks
Experts at every level seem to agree that more time is needed, not less, to complete an accurate census.
Earlier this year, the Trump administration announced plans towind down the count sooner-- at the end of the month -- though the pandemic has created serious obstacles for connecting with every resident.
Advocates told lawmakers on Capitol Hill Thursday that any attempts to shortened the process could have devastating effects for local governments that rely on federal funds.
The U.S. Census logo appears on census materials received in the mail with an invitation to fill out census information online on March 19, 2020 in San Anselmo, Calif.
"It is not an exaggeration to say an accurate census can bea matter of life or death in tribal communitiesbecause the programs impacted by census count affects delivery of health care, public safety, our youth and elder programs, housing, violence against women grants and other programs that sustain our tribal communities," Stephen Roe Lewis, governor of the Gila River Community, told congressional leaders Thursday.
Just last week, a federal judge in California temporarily stopped the Trump administration fromshortening the counting period.
Moreover, in a blow to the Trump administration, federal judges in New York on Thursday ruled that the secretary of Commerce, who oversees the U.S. Census Bureau, could not leave undocumented immigrants out of the population totals used to determine congressional seats.
It's clear each day matters in the race to be counted, and while there's time to still time participate in the 2020 national census, the question now is -- how much?
The TIP withKendall Karson
In a year unlike any other for an election, the first signs of what to expect foran uncertain Novemberare emerging 52 days out.
In Michigan, a key battleground that was long part of the Democrats' "blue wall" until it fell to Trump in 2016, more than 2.1 million voters have requested absentee ballots for the general election -- an eyepopping and record-breaking total with eight weeks to go.
In this photo provided by Wisconsin Watch, election workers Jeff and Lori Lutzka, right, process absentee ballots at Milwaukee's central count facility on Aug. 11, 2020.
The number of requests so far this year isnearly double the total from 2016, when just over 1.2 million Michigan voters requested absentee ballots by Election Day, according to the Detroit Free Press, when Michigan's total turnout in 2016 landed at roughly 4.9 million. It also surpasses the total number of absentee ballots requested for the state's down-ballot primaries last month -- 2 million -- which ultimately led to 1.5 million absentee ballots returned.
Still, with so much ofthe election likely to be unexpected, another "blue wall" state, Wisconsin -- where 1 million voters have requested absentee ballot -- appears to have not learned much from its chaotic April primary. The conservative-leaning state Supreme Court temporarily halted the mailing of absentee ballots as it weighs a decision on including the Green Party candidate on the ballot -- once again interjecting in the electoral process and potentially leading tovoter confusion if ballot delays ensue.
