11月前的最后一段竞选活动，将宾夕法尼亚州作为双方的焦点，这一点很明显乔·拜登美国和总统唐纳德·特朗普美国赢得白宫的策略。
在一周的时间里，Keystone State举行了四场竞选活动，两位候选人都计划在9月11日参观宾夕法尼亚州尚克斯维尔的93号航班纪念馆，以纪念袭击19周年。
增加的竞选步行交通巩固了宾夕法尼亚州作为2020年战场州的重要性。周一，乔·拜登在匹兹堡发表了讲话。周二，副总统彭斯访问埃克塞特，周四特朗普在拉脱布举行集会，周五拜登以虚拟的“农村经济圆桌会议”讨论结束了这一周。随后，副总统彭斯宣布计划在周三返回该州参加“特朗普工人”的自由活动，乔·拜登将在劳动节前往哈里斯堡，与劳联-产联主席理查德·特拉姆卡一起参加虚拟活动。
尽管该州离两位候选人的大本营都很近，方便了访问的频率，但宾夕法尼亚州提供的不仅仅是大流行时期的后勤便利。仅次于佛罗里达州，宾夕法尼亚州在主要竞争州中拥有第二高的选举票数，这使得它在任何可能的赢得总统选举的数学计算中都至关重要。
民主党总统候选人、前副总统乔·拜登在宾夕法尼亚州匹兹堡参观匹兹堡第一消防队时合影。
访问的政治意义
对特朗普来说，在宾夕法尼亚州的第二次胜利将是对他2016年微弱胜利的辩护，当时他仅以0.7%的优势超过希拉里·克林顿，并以赢得宾夕法尼亚州、密歇根州和威斯康星州的胜利推翻了“蓝墙”。在2016年之前，宾夕法尼亚人从1992年开始连续六次在总统选举中投票支持民主党。
对于出生在宾夕法尼亚州斯克兰顿的拜登来说，这带有一些情感价值，并提供了一个机会，在他与巴拉克·奥巴马两次赢得的州重建一个强大的民主党追随者。自今年早些时候大流行开始以来，这位前副总统已经五次前往该州。
拜登周一在匹兹堡举行活动的阿勒格尼县是宾夕法尼亚州西部唯一一个在2016年以压倒多数投票支持克林顿的县。
该州西部地区的经济历史上是以钢铁生产为基础的，钢铁生产集中在该州第二大城市匹兹堡。这些工作创造了工会权力和庞大工人阶级的悠久传统——这两个群体在投票箱中拥有重要的政治影响力。扩大民主党在周围郊区选民中的支持将有助于拜登在11月巩固他在宾夕法尼亚州的地位，即使宾夕法尼亚州西部的其他地方继续支持特朗普。
周二，在离拜登的家乡斯克兰顿仅30分钟路程的地方，彭斯在埃克塞特举办了一场“特朗普工人”活动。尽管彭斯在斯克兰顿附近——位于克林顿在2016年赢得的拉克万纳县——但竞选活动是在卢塞恩县举行的，卢塞恩县是宾夕法尼亚州的三个枢纽县之一，这意味着它在2012年支持奥巴马，在2016年支持特朗普。
副总统迈克·彭斯在宾夕法尼亚州埃克塞特的库哈斯克建筑公司的竞选活动上发表讲话后，向观众致意。
彭斯在访问期间谈到的经济发展话题，可能会引起该地区选民的共鸣，他们受到一度繁荣的钢铁和煤炭行业亏损的不利影响。
周四，特朗普在两周内第二次访问了Keystone State，当时他在位于匹兹堡以东的威斯特摩兰县的拉特罗布举行了一次集会。这一举动让他在2016年以超过30%的选票以压倒性优势赢得的一个领域，为自己抵御民主党的影响辩护。鉴于威斯特摩兰县靠近匹兹堡及其紧邻的阿勒格尼县郊区，民主党向附近郊区的任何扩张都将在11月对特朗普构成威胁。
迄今为止，全州范围内的竞选活动似乎表明，拜登和特朗普都在专注于在他们已经可能受欢迎的领域加强支持，而不是将其政治影响力扩大到不太友好的领域。周五，拜登将改变这种模式，他将涉足特朗普友好的领域，因为尚克斯维尔所在的萨默塞特郡在2016年以压倒性优势投票支持现任总统——接近76%对克林顿的20%。
水力压裂:宾夕法尼亚竞选活动的首要议题
能源公司为该州西部和东北部的工人阶级选民提供了一条经济生命线——因此，我们看到拜登和特朗普在访问这些地区时都提到了水力压裂行业，这绝非巧合。
就平衡环境政策和支持宾夕法尼亚州的一个关键产业而言，这个问题对拜登来说有点像一个22条军规。他公开反对禁止现有的水力压裂作业，同时也支持阻止水力压裂向新领域扩张。
在宾夕法尼亚州拉特罗布阿诺德·帕尔默地区机场的竞选活动中，唐纳德·特朗普总统与人群一起欢呼。
“我不是在禁止水力压裂。让我再说一遍。拜登周一在匹兹堡表示:“不管唐纳德特朗普(Donald Trump)对我撒了多少次谎，我都不会禁止水力压裂。”
尽管总统经常宣称民主党想要禁止水力压裂，并在他的拉脱布集会上重复了这些主张，但他在这个问题上对拜登最尖锐的批评在一定程度上与宾夕法尼亚州有关。
“记住这一点:如果你看看他们在做什么——拜登——他想结束水力压裂，结束石油产品——结束石油。没有天然气，什么都没有。结束一切。就这样。这在德克萨斯州是如何运作的?这在宾夕法尼亚州是如何运作的?”总统上个月在2020年国家政策会议上说。
最新投票
尽管宾夕法尼亚州竞选活动的增加可以更好地反映出选民在未来几个月的优先考虑，但最近的民意调查却描绘出了宾夕法尼亚人当前情绪的模糊画面。
根据昆尼皮亚克大学周四公布的一项民意调查，拜登在宾夕法尼亚州领先8个百分点，比特朗普的44%高出52%。与此同时，蒙莫斯大学周三公布的一项民意调查显示，两人之间的竞争更加激烈，拜登在宾夕法尼亚州登记选民中领先特朗普4个百分点，得票率为49%对45%。
离选举还有不到两个月的时间，随着宾夕法尼亚人成为该国第一批从9月14日开始要求并发回缺席选票的选民，不确定的投票结果表明，未来几个月可能会有更多人前往Keystone State。
Biden, Trump campaigns focus in on Pennsylvania
The final stretch of campaigning before November is putting a clear spotlight on Pennsylvania as a focal point for bothJoe Biden’s and PresidentDonald Trump’s strategies for winning the White House.
In the span of a week, there were four campaign events in the Keystone State, and both candidates plan to visit the Flight 93 memorial in Shanksville, Pennsylvania, on Sept. 11, to commemorate the 19th anniversary of the attacks.
The increased campaign foot traffic cements Pennsylvania’s importance as a 2020 battleground state. On Monday, Joe Biden delivered remarks in Pittsburgh. Then on Tuesday, Vice President Pence visited Exeter, Trump held a rally in Latrobe on Thursday, and Biden capped off the week with a virtual "Rural Economic Roundtable" discussion on Friday. Subsequently, Vice President Pence announced plans to return to the state on Wednesday for a "Workers for Trump" event in Freedom, and Joe Biden is set to travel to Harrisburg on Labor Day to participate in a virtual event with AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka.
Although the frequency of visits are facilitated by the state’s close proximity to both candidates’ home bases, Pennsylvania offers more than pandemic-era logistical convenience. After Florida, Pennsylvania boasts the second highest number of electoral votes at stake among the major battleground states, making it critical in any possible mathematical calculation of winning the presidency.
Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden poses for a photo as he visits Pittsburgh Local Fire Fighters No. 1 in Pittsburgh, Pa., Aug. 31, 2020.
Political Significance of Visits
For Trump, a second win in Pennsylvania would represent a defense of his slim 2016 victory when he topped Hillary Clinton by just .7% and toppled the "Blue Wall" by winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Prior to 2016, Pennsylvanians voted for Democrats in six straight presidential elections beginning in 1992.
For Biden, a Scranton native, Pennsylvania carries some sentimental value, and presents an opportunity to rebuild a strong Democratic following in a state he won twice with Barack Obama. The former vice president has already made five trips to the state since the pandemic began earlier this year.
Allegheny County, where Biden held his event in Pittsburgh on Monday, was the only county in western Pennsylvania to overwhelmingly vote in favor of Clinton in 2016.
The western region of the state's economy was historically based in steel production that was centered in Pittsburgh, the second largest city in the state. Those jobs created a long tradition of union power and a large working-class -- two groups that wield critical political influence at the ballot box. Expanding Democratic support among voters in the surrounding suburbs would help Biden solidify his standing in Pennsylvania come November, even if the rest of western Pennsylvania continues to favor Trump.
Just about 30 minutes away from Biden's hometown of Scranton, on Tuesday, Pence held a "Workers For Trump" event in Exeter. Although Pence was near Scranton -- located in Lackawanna County, which Clinton won in 2016 -- the campaign event was held in Luzerne County, which is one of Pennsylvania's three pivot counties, meaning it went for Obama in 2012 before the swinging to Trump in 2016.
Vice President Mike Pence greets the audience crowd after speaking at a campaign event on the grounds of Kuharchik Construction, Inc. in Exeter, Pa., Sept. 1, 2020
The topic of economic development, which Pence addressed during his visit, is likely to resonate with voters in the area who were adversely affected by losses in the once-prosperous steel and coal industries.
On Thursday, Trump visited the Keystone State for the second time in two weeks when he held a rally in Latrobe, which lies east of Pittsburgh, in Westmoreland County. The move put him on defense against Democratic influence over an area he won by a landslide in 2016 by more than 30% of the vote. Given Westmoreland County’s proximity to Pittsburgh and its immediate suburbs in Alleghany County, any Democratic expansion into the nearby suburban areas would pose a threat to Trump in November.
So far, campaign travel across the state has seemed to indicate that both Biden and Trump are focusing on reinforcing support in the areas where they are already likely to be popular rather than expanding their political presence into less friendly territory. That pattern is set to change for Biden on Friday, when he wades into Trump-friendly territory given that Somerset County, where Shanksville is located, voted in favor of the current president by a landslide in 2016 -- nearly 76% to Clinton's 20%.
Fracking: a top Pennsylvania campaign issue
Energy companies provide an economic lifeline to working-class voters in the western and northeastern parts of the state -- so it's no coincidence that we've seen both Biden and Trump call out the fracking industry during trips to these areas.
The issue presents a bit of a Catch-22 for Biden in terms of balancing environmental policies with supporting one of Pennsylvania's key industries. He is vocally against banning existing fracking operations, while also in favor of preventing the expansion of fracking into new areas.
President Donald Trump cheers with a crowd at a campaign event at the Arnold Palmer Regional Airport in Latrobe, Pa., Sept. 3, 2020.
"I am not banning fracking. Let me say that again. I am not banning fracking, no matter how many times Donald Trump lies about me," Biden said on Monday in Pittsburgh.
While the president frequently claims Democrats want to ban fracking, and repeated those claims during his Latrobe rally, his most pointed critique of Biden on the issue was tied, in part, to Pennsylvania.
"And remember this: If you look at what they're doing -- Biden -- he wants to end fracking, end petroleum products -- end petroleum. No natural gas, no nothing. End everything. And that's it. How does that work in Texas? How does that work in Pennsylvania?" the president said last month at the 2020 Council for National Policy Meeting.
Latest Polling
While the uptick in campaign action in Pennsylvania could provide a better picture of voters’ priorities in the months to come, recent polling paints a murky picture of the current sentiments of Pennsylvanians.
According to a Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday, Biden has an 8-point lead in Pennsylvania, 52% to Trump's 44%. Meanwhile, a Monmouth University poll released on Wednesday indicated a tighter race between the two, with Biden leading Trump by four points among Pennsylvania's registered voters, 49% to 45%.
With less than two months go to until the election, and as Pennsylvanians become some of the first voters in the country to request and send back absentee ballots beginning Sept. 14, the uncertain polling results indicate that there are likely more trips headed to the Keystone State in the coming months.
